Championship Waitlist

[MechEng83]

Originally Posted by seg9585

Can you explain the "218 district spots allocated"? I am not familiar with how district events allocate championship spots.

https://firstfrc.blob.core.windows.n...-manual-07.pdf
The table in Section 7.4.4

[Owen Busler]

Originally Posted by seg9585

Can you explain the "218 district spots allocated"? I am not familiar with how district events allocate championship spots.

From the admin manual:

7.4.4 FIRST Championship Teams from Districts

"Districts will receive the percentage of available slots at the FIRST championship, rounded up to the nearest whole slot, equal to the percentage of teams they have in their District compared to all of FIRST Robotics Competition in the current season. In calculating available slots at the FIRST Championship, pre-qualified teams will be excluded. "

7.4.3 District Championship

"Team capacity at District Championships for the 2016 season will be as follows:
Chesapeake District Championship...................................... 58
Indiana State Championship...................................... ........... 32
Michigan State Championship...................................... .......102
Mid-Atlantic Robotics District Championship ........................ 55
North Carolina FIRST Robotics State Championship............. 32
New England District Championship..................................... 64
Pacific Northwest District Championship .............................. 64
Peachtree District State Championship................................. 45"

[seg9585]

Okay, so effectively ~half of the teams competing in District Championships will earn a spot to Champs?

Makes me wonder what the true "path of least resistance" of qualifying for Champs actually is.

[AdamHeard]

Originally Posted by seg9585

Okay, so effectively ~half of the teams competing in District Championships will earn a spot to Champs?

Makes me wonder what the true "path of least resistance" of qualifying for Champs actually is.

Districts, for sure.

[logank013]

Originally Posted by Owen Busler

From the admin manual:

7.4.4 FIRST Championship Teams from Districts

"Districts will receive the percentage of available slots at the FIRST championship, rounded up to the nearest whole slot, equal to the percentage of teams they have in their District compared to all of FIRST Robotics Competition in the current season. In calculating available slots at the FIRST Championship, pre-qualified teams will be excluded. "

7.4.3 District Championship

"Team capacity at District Championships for the 2016 season will be as follows:
Chesapeake District Championship...................................... 25/58....43.1%
Indiana State Championship...................................... ........... 9/32....28.1%
Michigan State Championship...................................... ....... 76/102....74.5%
Mid-Atlantic Robotics District Championship ........................ 22/55....40.0%
North Carolina FIRST Robotics State Championship............. 10/32....31.2%
New England District Championship..................................... 34/64....53.1%
Pacific Northwest District Championship .............................. 30/64....46.9%
Peachtree District State Championship................................. 12/45....26.7%"

Total: .................................................. ...........................218/452....48.2%

Key: ..............................(Teams going to Worlds)/(Teams at DCMP)....%%%%

Modified the quote to have total allocated to worlds vs. total at DCMP with percentages.

[MechEng83]

Originally Posted by seg9585

Okay, so effectively ~half of the teams competing in District Championships will earn a spot to Champs?

Makes me wonder what the true "path of least resistance" of qualifying for Champs actually is.

Please don't forget that the teams competing in a district championship have already passed the filter of qualifying in their district to compete in the championship and gain a chance at qualifying for the world championship.

For example: Michigan has 411 teams. 102 compete at the DCMP. 76 qualify for CMP. 76/411 = 18.5%
Indiana has 49 teams. 32 compete at DCMP. 9 qualify for CMP. 9/49 = 18.4%

That's still a better percentage than you see at a typical regional, but it's not a "nearly half" situation.

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by seg9585

Okay, so effectively ~half of the teams competing in District Championships will earn a spot to Champs?

Makes me wonder what the true "path of least resistance" of qualifying for Champs actually is.

218 out of 600 is much closer to 1/3 of spots than 1/2 of spots.

The quantity of teams each district sends to the Championship is based on their proportion of the total teams in FRC. A more populous district sends more teams.

In terms of the "path of least resistance," it really depends on what your team is. If you're a high performing team, districts affords you a much greater chance to qualify via points. If you're a middle of the pack team, you may have better odds in a regional format, and hoping to be on the right alliance at the right time and take home a regional win (or wildcard).

[seg9585]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

218 out of 600 is much closer to 1/3 of spots than 1/2 of spots.

I didn't say half the teams attending champs were from Districts, just that half the District Champs teams were attending worlds. Very different.

Looking at Michigan for a second:

411 teams in total, 76 qualify for CMP (18.5%)

vs

Non-rookie team attending 2 regionals:
1st regional, 5 spots out of 65 make it to champs (7.7% chance to make Champs)
2nd regional, 5 spots out of 48 earn champs spots (reduced total number of teams attending the regional because they already earned spots, effectively factoring in wildcards): (10.4% chance to make Champs)

0.923 * .896 = .827 chance of not making Champs = 17.3% chance of making Champs from Regionals from a purely statistical standpoint.

So to *nearly* match the odds of making Champs at Regionals, one must always plan to attend 2 regionals.
2 regionals = $9000, vs 2 district events + district championship = $8000

$432 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Districts
$520 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Regionals

[MechEng83]

Originally Posted by seg9585

I didn't say half the teams attending champs were from Districts, just that half the District Champs teams were attending worlds. Very different.

Looking at Michigan for a second:

411 teams in total, 76 qualify for CMP (18.5%)

vs

Non-rookie team attending 2 regionals:
1st regional, 5 spots out of 65 make it to champs (7.7% chance to make Champs)
2nd regional, 5 spots out of 48 earn champs spots (reduced total number of teams attending the regional because they already earned spots, effectively factoring in wildcards): (10.4% chance to make Champs)

0.923 * .896 = .827 chance of not making Champs = 17.3% chance of making Champs from Regionals from a purely statistical standpoint.

So to *nearly* match the odds of making Champs at Regionals, one must always plan to attend 2 regionals.
2 regionals = $9000, vs 2 district events + district championship = $8000

$432 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Districts
$520 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Regionals

Incorrect. Our registration is $5000 just like every one else. The DCMP is $4000, just like a 2nd play regional.

[orangemoore]

Looks like 2 teams were removed from CMP list.

Both appear to be waitlist teams

2647
4792

So that brings the # of wait list spot up to 27

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by seg9585

I didn't say half the teams attending champs were from Districts, just that half the District Champs teams were attending worlds. Very different.

Looking at Michigan for a second:

411 teams in total, 76 qualify for CMP (18.5%)

vs

Non-rookie team attending 2 regionals:
1st regional, 5 spots out of 65 make it to champs (7.7% chance to make Champs)
2nd regional, 5 spots out of 48 earn champs spots (reduced total number of teams attending the regional because they already earned spots, effectively factoring in wildcards): (10.4% chance to make Champs)

0.923 * .896 = .827 chance of not making Champs = 17.3% chance of making Champs from Regionals from a purely statistical standpoint.

So to *nearly* match the odds of making Champs at Regionals, one must always plan to attend 2 regionals.
2 regionals = $9000, vs 2 district events + district championship = $8000

$432 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Districts
$520 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Regionals

First off, the cost of 2 district events and a district championship is $9000 in registration fees.

Secondly, where are you getting that 65 team number? 65 teams would be a very large regional event, and probably shouldn't be used as a general proxy for regional qualification. Using the data from this page, the average size of a regional event is only 51.5 teams.

Further still, you remove the rookies from the regional pool, while you don't remove the rookies from the district pool. While rookie qualification is proportionally smaller in the larger districts, it can significantly impact the odds in places like Indiana, Georgia, and North Carolina (where total team quantity is comparable to regional size). There's also the ranking point bonuses assigned to rookie (10 point) and sophomore (5 point) teams in the district system.

So, let's re-run the numbers.

210 non-rookie exclusive CMP spots are generated for the 1151 district teams. That's an 18.24% advancement odds for $9000 worth of registration fees, or $493.22/% point.

A one-regional team competes for 5 non-rookie exclusive CMP spots out of 51.5 regional attendees. That's a 9.71% advancement odds for $5000 worth of registration fees, or $514.93/% point.

Not factoring in wild cards (which improve regional teams' odds), a two-play team has an 18.48% advancement odds for $9000 worth of registration fees, or $487.09/% point.

[kyle_hamblett]

As per the Admin Manual:

Teams who sign up for the Waitlist will be randomly selected at various
points throughout the season in an effort to give teams as much time to make travel plans as possible while
ensuring we do not exceed FIRST Championship capacity.

Is there generally a date that they would no longer invite waitlisted teams? I would assume it's based on the rest of the teams that actually qualify and if there are any spots left over/when they either accept or decline the invitation.

[forbes]

Originally Posted by kyle_hamblett

As per the Admin Manual:


Is there generally a date that they would no longer invite waitlisted teams? I would assume it's based on the rest of the teams that actually qualify and if there are any spots left over/when they either accept or decline the invitation.

From what I remember from last year, they were still inviting teams about a week before championship. At that point, the decline rate increases significantly and it becomes difficult to find any teams willing to make last minute plans.

As a definite stop, I'm pretty sure once divisions are released no further teams can be invited.

[Jay O'Donnell]

Originally Posted by kyle_hamblett

As per the Admin Manual:


Is there generally a date that they would no longer invite waitlisted teams? I would assume it's based on the rest of the teams that actually qualify and if there are any spots left over/when they either accept or decline the invitation.

1058 was pulled off last year a few days before New England Champs. And there's definitely teams that get invited after that. I'm pretty sure I've heard of teams getting invited a few days before world champs.

[SenorZ]

Team 4276 just received an invitation this morning. One week after our second event.

We'll be accepting.