Championship Waitlist

[seg9585]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

218 out of 600 is much closer to 1/3 of spots than 1/2 of spots.

I didn't say half the teams attending champs were from Districts, just that half the District Champs teams were attending worlds. Very different.

Looking at Michigan for a second:

411 teams in total, 76 qualify for CMP (18.5%)

vs

Non-rookie team attending 2 regionals:
1st regional, 5 spots out of 65 make it to champs (7.7% chance to make Champs)
2nd regional, 5 spots out of 48 earn champs spots (reduced total number of teams attending the regional because they already earned spots, effectively factoring in wildcards): (10.4% chance to make Champs)

0.923 * .896 = .827 chance of not making Champs = 17.3% chance of making Champs from Regionals from a purely statistical standpoint.

So to *nearly* match the odds of making Champs at Regionals, one must always plan to attend 2 regionals.
2 regionals = $9000, vs 2 district events + district championship = $8000

$432 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Districts
$520 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Regionals

[MechEng83]

Originally Posted by seg9585

I didn't say half the teams attending champs were from Districts, just that half the District Champs teams were attending worlds. Very different.

Looking at Michigan for a second:

411 teams in total, 76 qualify for CMP (18.5%)

vs

Non-rookie team attending 2 regionals:
1st regional, 5 spots out of 65 make it to champs (7.7% chance to make Champs)
2nd regional, 5 spots out of 48 earn champs spots (reduced total number of teams attending the regional because they already earned spots, effectively factoring in wildcards): (10.4% chance to make Champs)

0.923 * .896 = .827 chance of not making Champs = 17.3% chance of making Champs from Regionals from a purely statistical standpoint.

So to *nearly* match the odds of making Champs at Regionals, one must always plan to attend 2 regionals.
2 regionals = $9000, vs 2 district events + district championship = $8000

$432 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Districts
$520 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Regionals

Incorrect. Our registration is $5000 just like every one else. The DCMP is $4000, just like a 2nd play regional.

[orangemoore]

Looks like 2 teams were removed from CMP list.

Both appear to be waitlist teams

2647
4792

So that brings the # of wait list spot up to 27

[BethMo]

Originally Posted by MechEng83

Incorrect. Our registration is $5000 just like every one else. The DCMP is $4000, just like a 2nd play regional.

It depends on the district. In the Pacific Northwest district this year, grants from generous sponsors covered all of the district championship registration fees, so there was no additional cost to the teams themselves.

[Moretti]

4290 has accepted their waitlist position. See you all at championships!

[forbes]

Qualifying teams from the 3 district championships and the 6 regionals this past weekend have been added to the registration list.

• Only 28 of the estimated 36 regional spots were taken
• There were 2 district teams that were already qualified (via regional, etc) of the 65 available district spots
• One wait list team declined (team 157)

According to my count, with up to 153 district spots still up for grabs, the current open capacity at the championship is 28 teams.

[s5511]

What is the likelihood that a team who has participated in last years championship becomes eligible through the waitlist?? Is it above 20%?

[Peyton Yeung]

So far no IN team has made it off the waitlist. Hopefully that changes by this weekend.

[tindleroot]

Originally Posted by Peyton Yeung

So far no IN team has made it off the waitlist. Hopefully that changes by this weekend.

Agreed. Sending 1-2 more teams would give some really deserving teams a shot at making the big show.

[ATannahill]

Originally Posted by s5511

What is the likelihood that a team who has participated in last years championship becomes eligible through the waitlist?? Is it above 20%?

The likelihood is 1/number of lottery tickets. We don't know how many teams signed up for the lottery or the distribution of them back to the last time they attended the championship (or their rookie year or the latest year of refounding) so we cannot determine the denominator. If I had to guess, I would say there is less than a 20% chance.

[dodar]

Originally Posted by rtfgnow

The likelihood is 1/number of lottery tickets. We don't know how many teams signed up for the lottery or the distribution of them back to the last time they attended the championship (or their rookie year or the latest year of refounding) so we cannot determine the denominator. If I had to guess, I would say there is less than a 20% chance.

And it would also change per team too.

[orangemoore]

Originally Posted by dodar

And it would also change per team too.

The question was about a team that went to champs last year.


(We have 6/total # of tickets still hoping to get in!)

[ATannahill]

Originally Posted by orangemoore

The question was about a team that went to champs last year.


(We have 7/total # of tickets still hoping to get in!)

I'm sorry to disappoint you, but you have 6/tickets. You get 2016-2010(rookie year) tickets. Best of luck.

[orangemoore]

Originally Posted by rtfgnow

I'm sorry to disappoint you, but you have 6/tickets. You get 2016-2010(rookie year) tickets. Best of luck.

Whoops.

No disappointment though.

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by seg9585

I didn't say half the teams attending champs were from Districts, just that half the District Champs teams were attending worlds. Very different.

Looking at Michigan for a second:

411 teams in total, 76 qualify for CMP (18.5%)

vs

Non-rookie team attending 2 regionals:
1st regional, 5 spots out of 65 make it to champs (7.7% chance to make Champs)
2nd regional, 5 spots out of 48 earn champs spots (reduced total number of teams attending the regional because they already earned spots, effectively factoring in wildcards): (10.4% chance to make Champs)

0.923 * .896 = .827 chance of not making Champs = 17.3% chance of making Champs from Regionals from a purely statistical standpoint.

So to *nearly* match the odds of making Champs at Regionals, one must always plan to attend 2 regionals.
2 regionals = $9000, vs 2 district events + district championship = $8000

$432 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Districts
$520 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Regionals

First off, the cost of 2 district events and a district championship is $9000 in registration fees.

Secondly, where are you getting that 65 team number? 65 teams would be a very large regional event, and probably shouldn't be used as a general proxy for regional qualification. Using the data from this page, the average size of a regional event is only 51.5 teams.

Further still, you remove the rookies from the regional pool, while you don't remove the rookies from the district pool. While rookie qualification is proportionally smaller in the larger districts, it can significantly impact the odds in places like Indiana, Georgia, and North Carolina (where total team quantity is comparable to regional size). There's also the ranking point bonuses assigned to rookie (10 point) and sophomore (5 point) teams in the district system.

So, let's re-run the numbers.

210 non-rookie exclusive CMP spots are generated for the 1151 district teams. That's an 18.24% advancement odds for $9000 worth of registration fees, or $493.22/% point.

A one-regional team competes for 5 non-rookie exclusive CMP spots out of 51.5 regional attendees. That's a 9.71% advancement odds for $5000 worth of registration fees, or $514.93/% point.

Not factoring in wild cards (which improve regional teams' odds), a two-play team has an 18.48% advancement odds for $9000 worth of registration fees, or $487.09/% point.