Can a 8th seed knock off a 1st seed at champs?

[hutchMN]

Is it reasonable for an 8th seed to knock off a 1st seed at champs this year? If yes, what will be the ideal strategy, and alliance makeup for the 8th seed?
I personally believe it's possible, I believe the ideal strategy will be to pick the best 2 offensive robots available (and a defensive 4th robot), and here is why: 1) The 8th seed will be able to select two decent high goal scorers to join them; the 8th seed should go all offense due to the dominant, unblockable, high goal scorers that will be picked in early part of the first round. Defense will have very little effect on these super-efficient outerworks shooters, devaluing a defensive robot. 2) Defense becomes less of a factor when you introduce a third offensive robot. Most of the best outerworks shooters will be gone by the 8th pick, so the robots on the 8th seed could be susceptible to defense. Splitting the defense 3 separate ways will help some of the easier to defend against shooters get their shots off. 3) Having 3 offensive robots will help you control more of the boulders, and in return, possibly causing boulders to become a semi limited game piece. This could help keep the game a lot closer, leaving the game to be decided by who can scale. 4) You will be able to find a high level defense robot anywhere in the draft at champs. An alliance will be able to pick a very good defensive robot with the 4th pick, but will have a hard time finding an offensive robot with the same pick. I would love to hear what you think the makeup of the 8th seed alliance will be.

[The other Gabe]

http://www.thebluealliance.com/event/2016pncmp

happened at DCMP, dont see why it couldn't at CMP

[Ginger Power]

2 vs. 0 and 3 vs. 1

Having 4 robots in a courtyard in your hypothetical 8 seed vs. 1 seed match up doesn't seem like like it would end well for the 8 seed. Letting the top 2 offensive robots on your division drive free of defense doesn't seem like a good idea. The 1 seed would quickly put the tower on an endless loop and steal from the secret passage. There's no way 3 robots on the opposing alliance could keep up with a defensive robot doing its thing. I think most alliances will need a presence in the opposing courtyard to prevent close-looped scoring.

I suppose the 3 offensive robots could cycle back to the secret passage (they'll need to anyways when boulders run out) and prevent a closed loop that way. It's still going to be difficult to out gun 2 undefended robots with 3 lower quality defended robots.

This is also assuming that the top robot on a division will be an unblockable outer works shooter. While this is the likely scenario, considering the breach rate should be close to 100%, crazy things happen.

[Alyssa]

We did it on Archimedes at Champs 2014. You never know what could happen, regardless of the game. I've definitely been guilty of giving up hope as an 8th seed as well as been a bit too confident as a 1st seed... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxA98sbviyo

[Charles Boehm]

Originally Posted by Alyssa

We did it on Archimedes at Champs 2014. You never know what could happen, regardless of the game. I've definitely been guilty of giving up hope as an 8th seed as well as been a bit too confident as a 1st seed... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxA98sbviyo

I remember that quite vividly It is definitely possible. (Well done by the way )

[ratdude747]

Originally Posted by Alyssa

We did it on Archimedes at Champs 2014. You never know what could happen, regardless of the game. I've definitely been guilty of giving up hope as an 8th seed as well as been a bit too confident as a 1st seed... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxA98sbviyo

Shoot, if you go back further, the 2007 winners started as the #8 alliance on their field.

Not common, but possible. Look at it this way: If your #8 alliance beat the #1 fair and square and through "winning" (as opposed to the #1 alliance "losing"), then what does that say about your alliance? You've proven yourself, and at that point I wouldn't be that surprised if you made it all the way. Sometimes teams get underanked and if the field is sufficiently deep then you'll always end up with two good bots for #8 to pick, simply because there were 7 others who were also good and happened to get picked earlier.

[dtengineering]

While it is always difficult for a #8 seed to knock off the #1 seed (it is, after all, meant to be that way...), I'd argue that it is MORE likely to happen at Championships than in a regional due to the depth of outstanding teams.

If there are only a half-dozen 'powerhouse' teams at a regional, they're all gone by the time the fourth or fifth alliance gets to choose their first pick, but if you've got a couple dozen awesome machines in a division, then the #8 captain will have plenty to choose from.

I'll repeat however... not easy. Just, perhaps, easier.

Jason

[Peter Matteson]

Originally Posted by alephzer0

I bet this isn't the only example of an 8 seed that not only won its division, but also on Einstein.

Originally Posted by ratdude747

Shoot, if you go back further, the 2007 winners started as the #8 alliance on their field.

It can/has happened

With 8 divisions and the #1 seed getting to pick their back up first I'm not sure that the depth of championship divisions is what it was in years past, or the 8th alliance can pick a strong enough team from that position.

I think the best chance is a team that people don't want to play with seeding #1.

[CalTran]

Originally Posted by Peter Matteson

I think the best chance is a team that people don't want to play with seeding #1.

Do I smell something burning?

[Peter Matteson]

Originally Posted by CalTran

Do I smell something burning?

It happens every few years.

[llamadon]

In regards to the op, I can see this being valid, the 8th seed gets a more level distribution of robot ability available to them, and having solid picks for all the members of an alliance makes a difference. Depending on the depth of the division, and the luck of the eighth seed it certainly is possible. An example of this that I enjoy is 2012 Galileo quarters.

8 takes 1 in three matches.

http://www.thebluealliance.com/match/2012gal_qf1m1
http://www.thebluealliance.com/match/2012gal_qf1m2
http://www.thebluealliance.com/match/2012gal_qf1m3

Teams that scout effectively at champs are going to have a huge upper hand. There are going to be a lot of robots that go under the radar, and in this year more than others I believe there will be upsets at champs.

[jajabinx124]

Originally Posted by CalTran

Do I smell something burning?

I think I smell it too.. some scorched earth

[Nuwanda]

If the 16th alliance can knock out the 1st alliance at the FIM District Championship, anything can happen. This game is one that a single robot cannot win by itself. The entire alliance needs to be working together to do well. If you put together the most well rounded alliance, upsets won't be uncommon.

[GaryVoshol]

Originally Posted by Nuwanda

If the 16th alliance can knock out the 1st alliance at the FIM District Championship ...

During my meeting with alliance captains, I use an example to explain how red/blue bumpers move through the brackets. If Alliance 8 (16 at MSC) should happen to beat Alliance 1, the upset winners "inherit" the red bumper color. I swear, I was not being prophetic!

[Tharioth Pillow]

Don't know if it was said already, but 16th seed won at MSC.