Can a 8th seed knock off a 1st seed at champs?

[hutchMN]

Is it reasonable for an 8th seed to knock off a 1st seed at champs this year? If yes, what will be the ideal strategy, and alliance makeup for the 8th seed?
I personally believe it's possible, I believe the ideal strategy will be to pick the best 2 offensive robots available (and a defensive 4th robot), and here is why: 1) The 8th seed will be able to select two decent high goal scorers to join them; the 8th seed should go all offense due to the dominant, unblockable, high goal scorers that will be picked in early part of the first round. Defense will have very little effect on these super-efficient outerworks shooters, devaluing a defensive robot. 2) Defense becomes less of a factor when you introduce a third offensive robot. Most of the best outerworks shooters will be gone by the 8th pick, so the robots on the 8th seed could be susceptible to defense. Splitting the defense 3 separate ways will help some of the easier to defend against shooters get their shots off. 3) Having 3 offensive robots will help you control more of the boulders, and in return, possibly causing boulders to become a semi limited game piece. This could help keep the game a lot closer, leaving the game to be decided by who can scale. 4) You will be able to find a high level defense robot anywhere in the draft at champs. An alliance will be able to pick a very good defensive robot with the 4th pick, but will have a hard time finding an offensive robot with the same pick. I would love to hear what you think the makeup of the 8th seed alliance will be.

[The other Gabe]

http://www.thebluealliance.com/event/2016pncmp

happened at DCMP, dont see why it couldn't at CMP

[Ginger Power]

2 vs. 0 and 3 vs. 1

Having 4 robots in a courtyard in your hypothetical 8 seed vs. 1 seed match up doesn't seem like like it would end well for the 8 seed. Letting the top 2 offensive robots on your division drive free of defense doesn't seem like a good idea. The 1 seed would quickly put the tower on an endless loop and steal from the secret passage. There's no way 3 robots on the opposing alliance could keep up with a defensive robot doing its thing. I think most alliances will need a presence in the opposing courtyard to prevent close-looped scoring.

I suppose the 3 offensive robots could cycle back to the secret passage (they'll need to anyways when boulders run out) and prevent a closed loop that way. It's still going to be difficult to out gun 2 undefended robots with 3 lower quality defended robots.

This is also assuming that the top robot on a division will be an unblockable outer works shooter. While this is the likely scenario, considering the breach rate should be close to 100%, crazy things happen.

[Alyssa]

We did it on Archimedes at Champs 2014. You never know what could happen, regardless of the game. I've definitely been guilty of giving up hope as an 8th seed as well as been a bit too confident as a 1st seed... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxA98sbviyo

[Rangel(kf7fdb)]

I think any type of strategy could work depending on the robots you are with vs the robots you are against. Overall though, I think its not a good idea to rule out defense altogether. A mix of defense and offense is critical this year thanks to the secret passage ball returns. Whether that's three shooters playing a mix of offense and defense or 2 offense and one dedicated defender, anything can be effective. If you were to put 3 purely offensive robots vs 2 of the best shooters and a defender/feeder, I think it could go either way to be honest. It's going to come down to what works best for your alliance based on the robots that are left followed by solid execution.

[BenHildy]

Personally, I believe this could happen. It nearly occurred at North Star, which I attended, and has happened before. This year, the strategy needed will be a very specific one. The upsets that have occurred this year so far have usually been either a couple low goal (or efficient high goal) cyclers whose main focus is to capture the tower, or a "diamond in the rough" team that has evaded selection from the other teams and creates a very competitive robot alliance. I will be focusing on the former. A couple climbers are always helpful to that strategy too.

A defense robot can be either extremely effective or almost useless based off of the opponents. For example, many high goal cyclers that would be in that #1 alliance can easily shoot over a 4' 6" robot. However, a powerful nudge at the right moment can ensure a team never makes a shot. Most high-level teams will continue trying to make that high shot rather than going low goal, and the time it takes one good high goal shooter to make a shot against formidable defense could provide one very efficient low goal cycler to make two or three shots. A choking strategy can always work too, as many teams did in 2010 and 2012 where a team simply takes balls across the defenses while they work towards the breach and another simply takes them and scores them without the hassle of crossing defenses. These are the two strategies that I've seen work most effectively against top-tier high goal shooters. Anyways, that's just my two cents' worth.

[alephzer0]

I bet this isn't the only example of an 8 seed that not only won its division, but also on Einstein.

[Caleb Sykes]

The likelihood correlates well with how many quals matches we get.

[the_godfaubel]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it will happen (#BoldPredictions). Everyone will presumably take the best available shooter in the first, thus leaving the defensive bots for the 2nd and/or 3rd round of selections. If 8 takes the best available shooter, they also get first dibs on the defensive bots. They get the best defensive bot there is and one that can probably climb, reliably cross 1 or 2 classes of defenses in autonomous, and potentially score in auto. Assuming the 8th alliance captain is a somewhat reliable shooter, that's a pretty dangerous alliance. If it's the right alliance, I could see 180-210 points being scored, which is more than enough to beat a #1 alliance.

Plus, declined alliances happen and might lead to a really good team being the 8th alliance captain.

[Rangel(kf7fdb)]

Originally Posted by the_godfaubel

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it will happen (#BoldPredictions). Everyone will presumably take the best available shooter in the first, thus leaving the defensive bots for the 2nd and/or 3rd round of selections. If 8 takes the best available shooter, they also get first dibs on the defensive bots. They get the best defensive bot there is and one that can probably climb, reliably cross 1 or 2 classes of defenses in autonomous, and potentially score in auto. Assuming the 8th alliance captain is a somewhat reliable shooter, that's a pretty dangerous alliance. If it's the right alliance, I could see 180-210 points being scored, which is more than enough to beat a #1 alliance.

Plus, declined alliances happen and might lead to a really good team being the 8th alliance captain.

The opposite could definitely hold true as well though. Some divisions may be really deep or alliances scout completely incorrectly and 1st alliance ends up getting a solid shooter as their second pick. The two best shooters(probably unblockable) in the division plus one of the best shooters as a third robot. Not to mention they would all be solid drivers and I'm not sure there is any stopping that kind of alliance no matter how good the defense may be. Alliances like these have happened plenty of times and went all the way before as well.

[jojoguy10]

Note: I'm going to try to write this without tooting my team's horn

We were the 8th seed alliance at PNW DCMPs, and we beat the 1st seed alliance (like The other Gabe said in the 2nd post in this thread). We did it with very brutal defense. The other alliance had a good high goal shooter, a fast low goal shooter, and their own defense bot. Our team decided to be the defense bot and our driver is very good (in my opinion).

I think it could happen at Champs, but only if there is an amazing defense bot, and if that alliance can score faster than the other alliance (even while under defense).

[Kevin Leonard]

Originally Posted by hutchMN

Is it reasonable for an 8th seed to knock off a 1st seed at champs this year? If yes, what will be the ideal strategy, and alliance makeup for the 8th seed?
I personally believe it's possible, I believe the ideal strategy will be to pick the best 2 offensive robots available (and a defensive 4th robot), and here is why: 1) The 8th seed will be able to select two decent high goal scorers to join them; the 8th seed should go all offense due to the dominant, unblockable, high goal scorers that will be picked in early part of the first round. Defense will have very little effect on these super-efficient outerworks shooters, devaluing a defensive robot. 2) Defense becomes less of a factor when you introduce a third offensive robot. Most of the best outerworks shooters will be gone by the 8th pick, so the robots on the 8th seed could be susceptible to defense. Splitting the defense 3 separate ways will help some of the easier to defend against shooters get their shots off. 3) Having 3 offensive robots will help you control more of the boulders, and in return, possibly causing boulders to become a semi limited game piece. This could help keep the game a lot closer, leaving the game to be decided by who can scale. 4) You will be able to find a high level defense robot anywhere in the draft at champs. An alliance will be able to pick a very good defensive robot with the 4th pick, but will have a hard time finding an offensive robot with the same pick. I would love to hear what you think the makeup of the 8th seed alliance will be.

Can it happen? Absolutely. 1 seeds have been knocked out in quarters a whole bunch of times at champs.

Your breakdown? I don't necessarily agree with. A number of different robots can seed first, including very defensible machines. Additionally, their first overall selection may not be an unblockable shooter as well.

Take 254, for example. I'd bet my money that they'll be on one of the top 3 alliances in their division at worst. They're very difficult to keep from scoring a ton of boulders, but if left to their own devices, with no defense, they've proven they can score 17 boulders in teleop on their own (this was a practice match, but it encapsulates a lot of what I'm trying to convey).

When playing against a machine like 254's, you almost have to defend them, or you almost certainly lose.

That being said, everyone likes an upset (except those being upset), and I'd love to see some scrappy 8 seed prove me wrong (or right), and take down the powerhouses.

[Citrus Dad]

Why a No 8 might knock of a No 1 this year? There's been a surprising number of rookies getting to No 1 in competitions this year. The ranking rewards working with your alliance members to get some level of RPs, and that's pulled teams into alliance captains that would not have made it in previous years based solely on win records. So a No 1 may not be the best bot for the elimination rounds but was set up well to qualify high. Gotta get to the ball before ya can dance...

[Charles Boehm]

Originally Posted by Alyssa

We did it on Archimedes at Champs 2014. You never know what could happen, regardless of the game. I've definitely been guilty of giving up hope as an 8th seed as well as been a bit too confident as a 1st seed... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxA98sbviyo

I remember that quite vividly It is definitely possible. (Well done by the way )

[ratdude747]

Originally Posted by Alyssa

We did it on Archimedes at Champs 2014. You never know what could happen, regardless of the game. I've definitely been guilty of giving up hope as an 8th seed as well as been a bit too confident as a 1st seed... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxA98sbviyo

Shoot, if you go back further, the 2007 winners started as the #8 alliance on their field.

Not common, but possible. Look at it this way: If your #8 alliance beat the #1 fair and square and through "winning" (as opposed to the #1 alliance "losing"), then what does that say about your alliance? You've proven yourself, and at that point I wouldn't be that surprised if you made it all the way. Sometimes teams get underanked and if the field is sufficiently deep then you'll always end up with two good bots for #8 to pick, simply because there were 7 others who were also good and happened to get picked earlier.