Odds of a Triple Tortuga in St. Louis

[Joe Johnson]

So... ...we've all had a lot of fun with the Triple Tortuga Contest this season (at least I have had fun).

It's kind of over because I've given away the 5 Triple Tortuga gift cards that I promised and I just don't see a Double Triple Tortuga happening this late in the season -- if it was going to happen, week 1 & week 2 were our best shots I thought.

BUT... ...I've been thinking about the rest of the season -- basically the District Championships and Worlds -- and wondering if we'd see any more Triple Tortugas.

I think that the odds of getting another Triple Tortuga at the District Championships is basically zero, the density of teams that habitually get stuck on defenses is just too low to make getting 3 of them in one match a realistically probable event.

Now the Worlds are another matter. My general view is that the population of robots at the Worlds (especially now with 600 teams attending) are not THAT different than a typical mid-season regional. So... ...I think that it is actually quite possible that we get a Triple Tortuga in St. Louis.

All this is a preamble to a poll. What do you think the odds are that we'll see a Triple Tortuga at the Worlds?

Comments & analysis welcome.

Dr. Joe J.