Predictions Week 7: Crowning the Districts

[Kevin Leonard]

Originally Posted by PayneTrain

Once again, I'm going to have to know what you see in the Pacific Northwest that I don't. When I look at MAR, they are getting more teams to Einstein.

I'm talking specifically about the level of play in 2016, not about who has previously been to Einstein.

When I look at MAR, I see a generally equal to lower level of play to that in the PNW.
Maybe that's because I've already seen PNWCMP.

[Nathan Streeter]

Originally Posted by lynca

Matches have started !

How do you rank the districts?

Here is my rough attempt.
Indiana > Michigan > NE > MAR > PNW > Georgia > CHS > NC

Capture % rates this weekend will help clarify the order

So far by Capture Rate, Winning Avg, and Avg:

NE: 50%; 122pts, 108pts... 46 opportunities
MI: 48%; 119pts, 107pts... 58 opportunities
PNW: 48%; 114pts, 104pts... 256 opportunities
MAR: 47%; 108pts, 97pts... 34 opportunities
CH: 36%; 103pts, 95pts... 232 opportunities
NC: 23%; 99pts, 88pts... 128 opportunities
PCH: 17%; 95pts, 86pts... 52 opportunities

Its a little impressive how well the Capture rates correlate with Winning Avg and Avg! Note though, New England, Michigan, MAR, and PCH all have only played 15-30 matches... although it is enough for most teams to have played at least two matches... if not more.

I expect Indiana to slot in somewhere in that top tier (or perhaps above?)... which would be remarkable, given there smaller field of teams to draw from (which I'm guessing have hurt NC and PCH).

[JABot67]

Originally Posted by PayneTrain

I don't really see how PNW separates itself from anyone else much at all. They have 1 or 2 robots that no one else has in 5803 and 1425 but uhh, what am I missing?

Originally Posted by PayneTrain

Once again, I'm going to have to know what you see in the Pacific Northwest that I don't. When I look at MAR, they are getting more teams to Einstein.

I think MAR definitely beats out the PNW in terms of competitiveness, although the PNW has a lot of good teams. Out here in the Northwest there is a whole lot of parity. The very very high resource teams, like 1983 and 4488, have run into problems this year and thus the race was wide open.

I wasn't trying to say the PNW had a higher level of play than PCH, CHS, and NC. However, that argument actually could be made. The PNW seems to be better than the other three in terms of metrics such as average match score, breach rate, capture rate, etc.

Who would win in the hypothetical matchup between the CHS #1 alliance (1418-836-5804) and the PNW #5 alliance (360-4469-3238)? To me, the PNW alliance has a very good chance of pulling off the win. Arguably, that #5 alliance doesn't include the best robots in the PNW - 1983, 1318, and 1540 were all better in my opinion.

To further the argument that the PNW has depth, I can say that 3238 (the #5 alliance's second pick) had the capability to shoot 6 high goals in a match, as did 3663 (the #1 alliance's second pick). Even 2471, the district's best outer works shooter, was a second pick. They could scale too! Would these teams fall that low in selections in PCH, CHS, and NC?

[Kevin Leonard]

Originally Posted by JABot67

I think MAR definitely beats out the PNW in terms of competitiveness, although the PNW has a lot of good teams. Out here in the Northwest there is a whole lot of parity. The very very high resource teams, like 1983 and 4488, have run into problems this year and thus the race was wide open.

I wasn't trying to say the PNW had a higher level of play than PCH, CHS, and NC. However, that argument actually could be made. The PNW seems to be better than the other three in terms of metrics such as average match score, breach rate, capture rate, etc.

Who would win in the hypothetical matchup between the CHS #1 alliance (1418-836-5804) and the PNW #5 alliance (360-4469-3238)? To me, the PNW alliance has a very good chance of pulling off the win. Arguably, that #5 alliance doesn't include the best robots in the PNW - 1983, 1318, and 1540 were all better in my opinion.

To further the argument that the PNW has depth, I can say that 3238 (the #5 alliance's second pick) had the capability to shoot 6 high goals in a match, as did 3663 (the #1 alliance's second pick). Even 2471, the district's best outer works shooter, was a second pick. They could scale too! Would these teams fall that low in selections in PCH, CHS, and NC?

In MAR, I can only think of 4-5 robots tops that can score more than 5 high goals in a match. I could be mistaken, but I have watched far more match video than I'd like to admit.

[PayneTrain]

Originally Posted by JABot67

I think MAR definitely beats out the PNW in terms of competitiveness, although the PNW has a lot of good teams. Out here in the Northwest there is a whole lot of parity. The very very high resource teams, like 1983 and 4488, have run into problems this year and thus the race was wide open.

I wasn't trying to say the PNW had a higher level of play than PCH, CHS, and NC. However, that argument actually could be made. The PNW seems to be better than the other three in terms of metrics such as average match score, breach rate, capture rate, etc.

Who would win in the hypothetical matchup between the CHS #1 alliance (1418-836-5804) and the PNW #5 alliance (360-4469-3238)? To me, the PNW alliance has a very good chance of pulling off the win. Arguably, that #5 alliance doesn't include the best robots in the PNW - 1983, 1318, and 1540 were all better in my opinion.

To further the argument that the PNW has depth, I can say that 3238 (the #5 alliance's second pick) had the capability to shoot 6 high goals in a match, as did 3663 (the #1 alliance's second pick). Even 2471, the district's best outer works shooter, was a second pick. They could scale too! Would these teams fall that low in selections in PCH, CHS, and NC?

Events that lack depth are ones that end up with very obvious champion alliances with pairings that pair up and are heavy favorites in eliminations. District Championships can have alliances that exist because they see a strategic angle that supersedes raw robot quality. There are plenty of robots that have the capacity to shoot x balls a match when left alone in a qualifier at a district event, but they can miss making half that mark at the dcmp elims.

[lynca]

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter

So far by Capture Rate, Winning Avg, and Avg:

NE: 50%; 122pts, 108pts... 46 opportunities
MI: 48%; 119pts, 107pts... 58 opportunities
PNW: 48%; 114pts, 104pts... 256 opportunities
MAR: 47%; 108pts, 97pts... 34 opportunities
CH: 36%; 103pts, 95pts... 232 opportunities
NC: 23%; 99pts, 88pts... 128 opportunities
PCH: 17%; 95pts, 86pts... 52 opportunities

Awesome data ! Keep the updates coming !
I would like to see how things progress over the weekend.

[JABot67]

Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard

In MAR, I can only think of 4-5 robots tops that can score more than 5 high goals in a match. I could be mistaken, but I have watched far more match video than I'd like to admit.

Perhaps you are right. When I think of MAR, I think of amazing established teams like 11, 25, 103, 225, 303, 341, 365, 1218, 1640, 1676, 2590, and the like. Many of those teams (25, 103, 341, 1218, 2590) were amazing in 2012 so I thought it would transfer very well to this year's game.

But no, I haven't actually watched that much 2016 MAR match video.

[CalTran]

Originally Posted by JABot67

Many of those teams (25, 103, 341, 1218, 2590) were amazing in 2012 so I thought it would transfer very well to this year's game.

While philosophy might still be there, there's an entire new class of students on the teams now, for the record.

[SciBorg Dave]

Always enjoy this.

[Nathan Streeter]

Originally Posted by lynca

Awesome data ! Keep the updates coming !
I would like to see how things progress over the weekend.

Looks like MI is now pulling away with this one! 5% higher capture rate than New England and essentially identical average scores.

MI: 58%; 122pts, 110pts... 88 opportunities
NE: 53%; 123pts, 110pts... 70 opportunities
PNW: 48%; 114pts, 104pts... 256 opportunities
MAR: 48%; 111pts, 101pts... 54 opportunities
CH: 36%; 103pts, 95pts... 232 opportunities
NC: 23%; 99pts, 88pts... 128 opportunities
PCH: 17%; 94pts, 86pts... 52 opportunities

[Dancin103]

Originally Posted by Hallry

And MAR's in a class of its own?

That is an understatement! I always feel like MAR district championships turns it up about 15 notches. LOL

[DonRotolo]

Originally Posted by BMSOTM

While 1676 is talented at the low goal, their real niche for their alliances was defense. They are, hands down, MAR's best defender this year. Their driving skill is ridiculous.

Some may wonder why their driving skill IS so ridiculous. Of course, the drive team is talented - teams should always select their drivers based on skill, not politics (assuming they want to win).

But the real reason is practice: 100 hours is not enough. The drivers drive until their thumbs bleed. They drive as easily as you or I might ride a bicycle: All the common maneuvers (go here, stop there, turn that way, line up for a shot, etc) are second-nature, freeing them to focus on the more difficult tasks.*

Watch their videos (they post every match on YouTube, been doing that since forever) and focus on their driving. Take Ultimate Ascent (2013) for example: The driver goes to a specific spot next to the pyramid to take a shot: Full speed, right to the spot, screech to a stop, a little wiggle and Fire. Repeat, very repeatably.

Teams, your 'practice' robot doesn't need to be an exact duplicate. Just as long as the drivers get practice, and the 'extra' bot handles reasonably like the 'real' one, you're good. Gonna do it next year? Wanna win??

*Full disclosure: They learned this from team 25.

[CalTran]

Originally Posted by DonRotolo

snip

^This.

It's a little dated at this point, but the 2168 Drive like a Falcon is something I will always recommend to drivers. Additionally, if you can manage it, do driving drills with a second robot running interference. It will make a world of difference.