paper: 4536 scouting database BETA

[Caleb Sykes]

Originally Posted by mitchellzone

I do have a question on how you've calculated these numbers, though. I'm assuming for a given event you're taking averages, but how do we end up with negative numbers for things like teleop high boulder points, etc.? There are several fields with values like this that I don't understand as the minimum value should really be zero.

Can you explain this? Thanks.

These numbers are calculated using a least-squares approximation on qualification scores assuming that every team contributes the same amount to the selected category in every match. This value is each team's calculated contribution (or OPR) in that category. The only inputs to the algorithm are the category scoring breakdown per match and the match schedule. For more detail on how OPR is calculated, see the first link on this page titled "Presentation to explain new scouting database."

As to why negative values arise, there are two main reasons this could occur. First, recognize that these values represent a given team's contribution to a given category, which is generally not equivalent to what we conventionally think of as scoring. For example, a team which never takes shots, but transports boulders into the courtyard, could have a positive value in "teleop Boulders High." Although scouts would never say that they scored boulders high, if alliances which they are a part of tend to score more high goals, their "teleop Boulders High" value might be positive. In the same way, if a team plays the game in a way that hinders partners from scoring high boulders (by taking balls from them, taking their desired shooting position, running into them, etc...) then this team will have a justifiably lower score in "teleop Boulders High" than just the average number of boulders they themselves scored high.

The other reason a team could have a negative value in a category boils down to our assumption that every team contributes the same amount every match. This is very clearly false, but it is a reasonable enough approximation that we can still arrive at reasonably good results when making it. If team A never scores in the high goal, but happens to be on the same alliance as a very good shooter in the same match that the shooter breaks down, team A will likely receive a small negative value in "teleop Boulders High."

Personally, when I interpret these values, I generally round all negative values up to 0, but YMMV.

Also, I'm wondering if you'll be producing a sheet that contains only the teams going to Worlds in St. Louis? That would be helpful for those who are going.

Good idea. I will include a sheet like this in my next update.

Originally Posted by mitchellzone

Thought of another couple:

Does this data just reflect qualification rounds or also playoff rounds? I assume the latter, but wanted to verify.

I do only factor in qualification rounds. There are a number of reasons for this, many of which are described by Ed Law here. The reasons there are important, but the largest reason for me is that using qualification matches only has become the de facto standard on calculations like these, and it is important to me that my scores are equivalent to those listed on TBA, the 2834 database, and the 1114 database.

Also, how are you calculating total points? This seems to be a really low number...

Total points is actually equivalent to OPR. This number represents the calculated contribution to the match scores of a team throughout their qualification matches.

Remember that these numbers represent only the given teams' contribution, not their average alliance's score. Also, remember that playoff scores are calculated differently than qual scores. If you want to approximate a playoff alliance's score, you will likely get better results using my eOPR1 or eOPR2 metrics.

[mitchellzone]

Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes

These numbers are calculated using a least-squares approximation on qualification scores assuming that every team contributes the same amount to the selected category in every match. This value is each team's calculated contribution (or OPR) in that category.

Okay, knowing these are all calculated similarly to OPR makes sense and explains the numbers, probably including the next one I was going to ask about which was why challenge/scale likelihood was often >1.0.

Looking forward to the next update, thanks.

/mike

[Caleb Sykes]

Week 7 data has been added.

Per request, I have also added a "championship preview" sheet which contains data on the best event (by OPR) of every team registered for championships as of 5PM CST on 4/18/2016. There is no new information on this sheet, all data are copied directly from the "world results" sheet. I am not planning to release updates if/when the championship team list changes, so you will have to update this sheet yourself.

If someone could check the data from the Michigan State Championship against scouting data to see that they roughly correlate, I would appreciate it. When I originally made this database, all of my calculations assumed that no event would have more than 100 teams or more than 200 matches. Thus, I had to modify a few things to accommodate MSC, which makes me nervous that I may have introduced one or more small errors somewhere.

Unless someone notices an error, I will not be releasing another update until after championships.

[Caleb Sykes]

Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes

If someone could check the data from the Michigan State Championship against scouting data to see that they roughly correlate, I would appreciate it. When I originally made this database, all of my calculations assumed that no event would have more than 100 teams or more than 200 matches. Thus, I had to modify a few things to accommodate MSC, which makes me nervous that I may have introduced one or more small errors somewhere.

These values have been verified to be correct. Ether ran calculations independently that provided results which matched the results in this database.

[Caleb Sykes]

Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes

Unless someone notices an error, I will not be releasing another update until after championships.

Update on updates.
By request, I have decided to release an update on Friday night with division preview tabs. I might also do match/ranking predictions using components, but no guarantees.

[Caleb Sykes]

I would just like to remind everyone that the changed tower strength at champs means that some of these metrics lose value if they are applied to the championship events. Specifically, teleop Tower Captured, eOPR1, and eOPR2 should not be directly applied to the championship event. I will create a new metric ceOPR (championship elimination OPR) in my Friday update which will be calculated in the same way eOPR1 is currently calculated, but modified to account for the change in tower strength.

[joeojazz]

Hi I was looking at your scouting info and didn't see my team 5712 in the championship preview. Also wanted to say how great this is and how useful this will be when checking out alliance partners and opponents.

[Caleb Sykes]

Originally Posted by joeojazz

Hi I was looking at your scouting info and didn't see my team 5712 in the championship preview.

Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes

Per request, I have also added a "championship preview" sheet which contains data on the best event (by OPR) of every team registered for championships as of 5PM CST on 4/18/2016. There is no new information on this sheet, all data are copied directly from the "world results" sheet. I am not planning to release updates if/when the championship team list changes, so you will have to update this sheet yourself.

Your team will be included in this tab in the Friday update.

[Caleb Sykes]

I have uploaded a new championships preview database. It contains an updated teams list in the "championship preview" sheet, as well as divisional preview sheets. All results from these 9 sheets are taken directly from the "world results" sheet.

Additionally, I have created a new metric ceOPR (championship eliminations OPR), which can be used to predict elimination scores at championships. This value is equivalent to (total points) + 2.5*(subtracted tower strength) + 2.5*(cross defense count). This value is only in the world results, championship preview, and divisional preview sheets, not in the previous events.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns.

[jajabinx124]

Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes

I have uploaded a new championships preview database. It contains an updated teams list in the "championship preview" sheet, as well as divisional preview sheets. All results from these 9 sheets are taken directly from the "world results" sheet.

Additionally, I have created a new metric ceOPR (championship eliminations OPR), which can be used to predict elimination scores at championships. This value is equivalent to (total points) + 2.5*(subtracted tower strength) + 2.5*(cross defense count). This value is only in the world results, championship preview, and divisional preview sheets, not in the previous events.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns.

Just wanna say thanks for making this scouting database and making a championship preview version of it! This makes pre-scouting much easier and these stats will be useful.

[Travis Hoffman]

Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes

I have uploaded a new championships preview database. It contains an updated teams list in the "championship preview" sheet, as well as divisional preview sheets. All results from these 9 sheets are taken directly from the "world results" sheet.

Additionally, I have created a new metric ceOPR (championship eliminations OPR), which can be used to predict elimination scores at championships. This value is equivalent to (total points) + 2.5*(subtracted tower strength) + 2.5*(cross defense count). This value is only in the world results, championship preview, and divisional preview sheets, not in the previous events.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns.

You are quite the awesome person for doing this. Thank you kindly.

[mitchellzone]

Caleb, you're awesome for doing this, thanks!

One suggestion: On the championship preview tab, it would be great to have an additional column with what division each team is in. This would allow us to just ingest the data once into any analytics platform and very quickly group the teams into divisions by that field rather than having to load them each separately and join them.

Thanks again!

/mike

[Wayne TenBrink]

Thanks for the excellent work!

Please check the Carson preview tab. It appears to be blank.

[Caleb Sykes]

Originally Posted by Wayne TenBrink

Thanks for the excellent work!

Please check the Carson preview tab. It appears to be blank.

It displays fine for me. Do all of the other division preview sheets display properly for you?

[Wayne TenBrink]

Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes

It displays fine for me. Do all of the other division preview sheets display properly for you?

It's all there now. Third download was the charm. Thanks again.