Comparison of DIV MAX OPRs

[Joe Johnson]

Originally Posted by Ether

FWIW

Ten million 75-team samples randomly drawn from 600-team CMP population; 2.5% had average OPR greater than Newton's.


Interestingly:

mean of max OPR of 600 CMP teams = 37.331

std dev of max OPR of 600 CMP teams = 12.287

predicted std dev of the means of the 75-team samples = 12.287/sqrt(75) = 1.4187

mean OPR of Newton = 40.1149

predicted Zscore of Newton = (40.1149-37.331)/1.4187 = 1.9623

area under normal curve between mean and 1.9623 = .4570

predicted probability = 0.5 - 0.4750 = 0.025 = 2.5%

Interesting. 3 methods provide the same result (Ether's two methods and my method #1* 2.5% is 1 in 40)

I swear, I didn't look at Ether's answers before I did my simulation.

Dr. Joe J.


*which, I thought should be the better metric - method 2 was more tailored to be stacked in the way that Newton was stacked, so of course it is more rarely observedd.