Predictions Championship 2016: One Final Siege (& Top 25)

[MCarron]

Look for team #4451 to be a sleeper in the Carver division. Easily the best robot from South Carolina (yes it's hard for me to admit that coming from team #343 but I have to give credit where it's due ). They are a solid performer, very consistent, and will definitely be a top tier team in this division. Their match schedule looks favorable for them as well. Best of luck to all of the teams.

Mike C.
MIM-343

[Looking Forward]

Rather than get absolutely nothing up for the final two divisions, the team numbers will be posted. Our internal notes are being withheld, and there won't be any commentating. Deepest regrets for not getting this done in time.

Curie

Locks
1983
3339

Tips
25/5406/5803
836
3641
3990/876
2848
3310

Sleeper
3230

Dark Horse
2883
2974

[Looking Forward]

Hopper

Locks:
971
1678
148

Tips:
4334/4967
1425/1011
4587
5254
2013
1730

Dark Horse:
1736

Sleeper:
1538

[Pault]

Galileo?

[Nathan Streeter]

Originally Posted by Pault

Galileo?

987 and 195. :-)

[Pault]

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter

987 and 195. :-)

Fair enough. I'm satisfied.

[Kevin Leonard]

Thank you for you efforts, LF.
Hopefully next year divisions will be released sooner so you have a chance to get real predictions out

[Foster]

Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard

Thank you for you efforts, LF.
Hopefully next year divisions will be released sooner so you have a chance to get real predictions out

Yes, thanks LookingForward for your season and then weekly insights about the events. I appreciate the effort!!

[sciencenuetzel]

I have appreciated all of the Looking Forward's posts this year. Great work and thank you for keeping my interest up when I can't be as involved as I would like!

[The other Gabe]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

Hopper

Locks:
971
1678
148

Tips:
4334/4967
1425/1011
4587
5254
2013
1730

Dark Horse:
1736

Sleeper:
1538

genuinely surprised to not see 2046 on that list

[Akash Rastogi]

Originally Posted by MCarron

Look for team #4451 to be a sleeper in the Carver division. Easily the best robot from South Carolina (yes it's hard for me to admit that coming from team #343 but I have to give credit where it's due ). They are a solid performer, very consistent, and will definitely be a top tier team in this division. Their match schedule looks favorable for them as well. Best of luck to all of the teams.

Mike C.
MIM-343

I think 4451, 1746, and 1648 will play some major roles during Carver elims. All three are capable of being sleepers if they can play consistently without robot issues.

[Looking Forward]

Originally Posted by Pault

Galileo?

Holy moly, now I'm really embarrassed. Galileo was even complete!!! This should have been up yesterday, but guess it got missed in the rush.

Tips:
Miss Daisy took full advantage of the vertical space provided, and the trade-off of not crossing the low bar proved well worth it in their case. Defense crossing, particularly the rock wall and moat, can still be a bit spotty for Daisy at times, they're a force to be reckoned with once in the Courtyard. 341 started the season as primarily a batter shooting specialist, but as MAR Championship progressed they became more and more comfortable with launching at range when defense was applied. During the playoffs, they carried the offensive load for the #1 alliance, securing captures with consistent five point shots even as their partners had issues and finishing matches with their high scale. While they're not an ideal fit for every alliance, if 341 can take root with partners that allow them to cycle across their ideal defenses, they will be a force to be reckoned with.

Early on in Stronghold, low goals were the dominant method of securing captures (and thus advancing in the playoffs). 3683 rode that strategy to their first ever regional victory at GTR-C back in week one. Their low goaling once again proved instrumental in Waterloo, as it helped them rank 3rd via captures and despite four losses in qualification. Dave will be among the best two pointers in St. Louis, and an interesting trial of how teams without high goal ability will play in the age of 10 strength towers. They've already demonstrated a willingness to feed high scoring partners during the Waterloo eliminations, so don't expect pride to stand in their way come playoff time.

So long as they reach championship, the Martians are a fixture of the elimination rounds. Since there 2004 world title, 2009 was the only season in which 494 reached CMP and did not play in the playoffs. After winning in Kettering and captaining an alliance past their twins and to the second round in the MSC playoffs (where they had a losing score of 202 points), 494 should have little issue reaching the playoffs once more. The real question is how far they can advance. They lack some of the high end features, such as a scaling end game or unblockable shot, that would make them a very early selection. As a result, they may have to pull off some impressive upsets if they want to take home a medal from CMP for the first time since 2005.

When the worst finish on the season is ranking 3rd, reaching the semi-finals and winning an Excellence in Engineering award, it's likely a pretty special season. 2468's finishes appreciated upwards from that 3rd place, winning their next two events on the top seeded alliance. Strong qualifications performances rewarded them with the luxury of not having to carry the offensive load solo in the playoffs, as they had some very strong partners in West Valley and Phoenix. If they can align themselves with a top gun once more, they could rack up a few wins on Saturday.

Sleeper:
It's not entirely unprecedented for teams to miss the elimination rounds at Michigan State Championship before being selected to play in the eliminations in St. Louis. Nor should this be entirely surprising once you consider that Michigan teams have represented roughly 20% of all CMP playoff participants the past two seasons. 4384 is the most likely to accept that title in 2016, after being passed up to join the 16 alliances competing for the title of best in Michigan. The Benzene Bots are a low profile high goaler, though their ability to shoot from the outerworks is undercut by that low release. All things considered, they stand a good chance at avenging their short outing at MSC by getting to play on Saturday in St. Louis.

Dark Horse:
With the bevy of incredibly high scores during the New England DCMP playoffs, some really solid teams ended up getting lost in the mix. 558 was a first round selection at what may have been the most competitive event of the season so far, but was on the losing end of the now famous 70-point autonomous match. Despite not making the headlines in Hartford, Elm City Robotics is one of the faster scoring machines in the divsion, and closes out matches with a consistent hang. Like many other batter shooters, they still haven't been able to find a consistent path to scoring consistently in autonomous and strong positional defense can make their life more interesting in tele-op. However, their quick and consistent scoring should make them a huge factor in qualifications and help ensure them a first round selection.

Locks:
Nobody in FRC has more experience with turreted shooters and pushing the limits of autonomous than the High Rollers. So it should come as no surprise that 987 is heading into Championship with a 2-ball autonomous that has already worked in the heat of competition, and one of the quickest and most accurate turrets in all of Stronghold. And for the first time in team history, 987 joined the three win club prior to Championship. They have the Championship pedigree to back up their expectations, with a 2007 world championship and three other trips to Einstein on their resume (including a trip to the Einstein finals last season). The High Rollers are flying high heading into St. Louis, and they're rightfully favored to be among the the top teams on Galileo.

Fresh off their 2015 trip to Einstein, 1023 came into 2016 with high expectations. Their performance to start the season didn't quite meet those expectations, but they continued to improve from event to event. By the time Michigan State Championship rolled around, Bedford Express was on fire. 2013 earned the 3rd overall selection at MSC, and was their alliances' primary offensive force during their run to the semi-finals. Bedford plays a rather simple game, focused on cycling across the low bar and reaching the batter to shoot, with an extension and scale during the final 20 seconds. But the speed and level of execution involved makes them a tremendously dangerous scoring machine. They don't have quite the flexibility of some other top competitors, so there's a chance a poor match-up could bounce them early, but expect a strong performance and deep playoff run.

The only time 195's alliance was held to a score lower than their team number during the NE DCMP playoffs was when their partner was flipped upside down (and the opponent received a red card). The Cyber Knights are among the elite offensive teams playing FIRST Stronghold, capable of a two-ball low-bar autonomous routine and shooting from multiple locations around the courtyard floor. 195 concludes the match with a rapid and effective scissor lift hang, which extends from the end of their manipulator. They're at their most effective when allowed to focus on rapid cycles across the low bar to their passage, but they may have to show off some of their other strengths if they manage to pair up with Bedford or the High Rollers (who also like that route). Their drive team is battle tested enough to know how to work through issues that arise in match strategy and execution. For example, when they had an intake issue in Hartford, they had the wherewithal to remember that the brattice existed, and load their robot directly from the human player station. That's the type of on-your-feet thinking that could prove critical in the highly dynamic battlefields of Stronghold.

[DonRotolo]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

Holy moly, now I'm really embarrassed. Galileo was even complete!!! This should have been up yesterday, but guess it got missed in the rush.

Meh, it happens. Thanks for the extraordinary amount of effort you put in to all this analysis. While your predictions may not be any more accurate than the weather forecast, the commentary is always appreciated and spot-on. What a thrill to be mentioned by LF!

As you surely know, living in one area makes you understand that area fairly well, but understanding the whole world is a different kind of feat. You (and your spies) make it look easy. Sure, someone will always quibble with 'surprised to not see xxx...', but overall, WOW.

Thank you again,
Don

PS: Say hi next time we meet