Project ORB: A superb predictive scouting system!

[Eugene Fang]

I haven't looked at how accurate ORBs predictions have been, but I noticed that it is consistently overestimating scores by a large margin. Any insight as to why this might be occurring?

[CrazyMohawk]

its down

[danielrw]

Originally Posted by CrazyMohawk

its down

Thanks, we're working on getting it back up.

[danielrw]

Originally Posted by danielrw

Thanks, we're working on getting it back up.

We restarted the server and everything seems to be working now.

[TomAwezome]

Originally Posted by Eugene Fang

I haven't looked at how accurate ORBs predictions have been, but I noticed that it is consistently overestimating scores by a large margin. Any insight as to why this might be occurring?

As far as I could tell much earlier in development, it was oddly over in estimation, but it seemed consistent by a certain multiplier (not impacting the predictions for winning, just showing bigger values.) Before, I had multiplied it by about .7310 to get the scores looking more like actual match scores. It is currently not doing that, since as mentioned it has no impact on prediction. The score value is a result of how it's summing it all, as it is trying to follow as close as possible the way that match scoring works in-game, but is not caused by any errors.

[weaversam8]

Hope everybody's been having a great day! We have found that there are some issues with retraining teams as matches occur, so we've turned off that feature in order to ensure that the web service remains online. We'll train tonight for all teams at Championships to make sure the data tomorrow is fresh based on how teams played today.

Originally Posted by TomAwezome

As far as I could tell much earlier in development, it was oddly over in estimation, but it seemed consistent by a certain multiplier (not impacting the predictions for winning, just showing bigger values.) Before, I had multiplied it by about .7310 to get the scores looking more like actual match scores. It is currently not doing that, since as mentioned it has no impact on prediction. The score value is a result of how it's summing it all, as it is trying to follow as close as possible the way that match scoring works in-game, but is not caused by any errors.

We just did a tweak and they should be slightly more realistic, but we'll be looking into adjusting these values tonight to make them appear more like match scores.

Originally Posted by marshall

Source code?

We plan on releasing the source code at some point, it's a bit fragmented at the moment and we'll need to clean it up.