Upset Percentage

[markmcgary]

Originally Posted by Ether

To answer that question definitively, perhaps a SQL guru will write a script to query Jaci's 2016 SQL database.

That sounds like a challenge. According to my query, there were 720 upsets out of 2273 playoff matches. This does not count ties where the fouls determined the outcome. I checked this against Einstein and it looks accurate.

select matches.event, events.name, match_levels.name, matches.set_number, matches.match_number,
red_scores.total_points as red_points, blue_scores.total_points as blue_points from matches
inner join events on matches.event = events.id
inner join match_levels on matches.match_level = match_levels.id
inner join match_scores as red_scores on matches.id = red_scores.match
inner join match_scores as blue_scores on matches.id = blue_scores.match
where match_level > 1
and red_scores.alliance_color = "red"
and blue_scores.alliance_color = "blue"
and blue_points > red_points
and events.is_official = 1
order by matches.event

Edit: You can add one upset for Einstein Final Match 3 which I know was tied. That makes 31.7% playoff upsets.

Edit 2: I added some logic to figure out upsets that were tie scores. That added 7 total upsets. 32%. Interestingly, 4322 won an upset on a tie at OCR QF2-1. That match now shows in the results.

and (blue_points > red_points or (blue_points = red_points and blue_scores.foul_points > red_scores.foul_points))