Upset Percentage

[EricH]

Originally Posted by markmcgary

That could certainly impact the results. I thought that red was always the higher seeded alliance and alliances sometimes change bumper colors during playoffs to maintain that relationship. I'd have to study the database design more deeply to determine the relationships between the matches, alliances and their seeding. I took the easy way assuming (incorrectly?) that blue was always the lower seed. The SQL will get more ugly. I wonder how significant will be the impact on the percentage?

Easy way to do it: Red is from the highest seed in that branch of the bracket (1-8/4-5|2-7/3-6), regardless of if that seed moves on. #8 has red over #2, should they meet in finals.

Thus, #1 is always red. #8 is blue, but can take over red if they beat #1. #2 is red, unless they're in finals; #7 is blue unless they beat #2. #3 is red against #6, and blue otherwise (#6 is always blue). #4 is red against #5, blue for semis, and red for finals (while #5 is blue unless they're in finals).


Or, to put it another way:
Alliance: QFs, SFs, Fs (assuming they make it that far)
#1: R, R, R
#2: R, R, B
#3: R, B, B
#4: R, B, R
#5: B, B, R
#6: B, B, B
#7: B, R, B
#8: B, R, R

Best reason to be on the #1 alliance, you don't change your bumper color. (OK, so #6 has the same perk...)