IRI 2016 Predictions

[Kevin Leonard]

Originally Posted by Liam Fay

My predictions are as follows:

2056 118 1024 868
133 195 2451 494
1241 3620 3130 5460
225 179 3824 71
67 1114 2052 4587
330 16 27 3641
2481 33 217 5254
3683 2771 2013 1806

Results?

[Richard Wallace]

Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard

Results?

I predict the winning IRI alliance will include one team from Canada and one team from Michigan.

And one team from Indiana.

[Rangel(kf7fdb)]

Winner Prediction:
195-330-503-1086

[Liam Fay]

Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard

Results?

My bad.

2056 118 1024 868 W
133 195 2451 494 F
1241 3620 3130 5460 SF
225 179 3824 71 SF
67 1114 2052 4587 QF
330 16 27 3641 QF
2481 33 217 5254 QF
3683 2771 2013 1806 QF

It's not very exciting, but with IRI's alliance rules, it's what makes sense to me.

[Kevin Leonard]

Originally Posted by Liam Fay

My bad.

2056 118 1024 868 W
133 195 2451 494 F
1241 3620 3130 5460 SF
225 179 3824 71 SF
67 1114 2052 4587 QF
330 16 27 3641 QF
2481 33 217 5254 QF
3683 2771 2013 1806 QF

It's not very exciting, but with IRI's alliance rules, it's what makes sense to me.

Boringggg
Same alliances- MORE EXCITING RESULTS

2056 118 1024 868 SF
133 195 2451 494
1241 3620 3130 5460
225 179 3824 71
67 1114 2052 4587 W
330 16 27 3641 SF
2481 33 217 5254 F
3683 2771 2013 1806

133 and 195 get upset in the quarterfinals by 2481 and 33, and the 2481 alliance proceeds to sweep through the semis relatively uncontested . 4587 had been having difficulty with their 2-ball auto routine, but they pull it out in the semis and barely defeat the powerful #1 seed of 2056 and 118 when 118's 2 ball unexpectedly fails!

The finals are close, and in game 1, 4587's autonomous advantage is the difference maker. In game 2, the 7 seed switches 5254 in, who had been spending all of eliminations developing a counter-auton to 4587. They win this match by the narrowest of margins.

Finals 3 sees 2481-33-5254 against 67-1114-4587 again, and 5254 succeeds at taking the ball off the sideline from 4587, but then gets stuck on the moat during autonomous and misses their shot (It's only happened once this season, but God knows the time it would happen again would be IRI finals).
5254 dislodges themselves, but the point difference in autonomous was enough, and the 5 seed takes IRI 2016.

[jtrv]

Originally Posted by Liam Fay

My predictions are as follows:

2056 118 1024 868
133 195 2451 494
1241 3620 3130 5460
225 179 3824 71
67 1114 2052 4587
330 16 27 3641
2481 33 217 5254
3683 2771 2013 1806

In what world does 1114 get picked before 2481 or 330? I'd argue that 2481 is one of, if not the, best teams this year...

[Kevin Leonard]

Originally Posted by jtrv

In what world does 1114 get picked before 2481 or 330? I'd argue that 2481 is one of, if not the, best teams this year...

In the world where this is IRI and anything can happen. I'd argue 1114 was one of the best teams this year as well, and 1114 has a history of showing up strong to IRI. They've been on the 1st seeded alliance at iri for the past 3 years, and they won IRI in 2 of the past 4 years.

Additionally, these are just his predictions- maybe he has 2481 declining so they can form their own alliance or something. Who would have predicted that 1730 would seed first at 2015 IRI, or that the 8 seed would advance to semis?
Anything can happen at IRI!

[jtrv]

Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard

In the world where this is IRI and anything can happen. I'd argue 1114 was one of the best teams this year as well, and 1114 has a history of showing up strong to IRI. They've been on the 1st seeded alliance at iri for the past 3 years, and they won IRI in 2 of the past 4 years.

Additionally, these are just his predictions- maybe he has 2481 declining so they can form their own alliance or something. Who would have predicted that 1730 would seed first at 2015 IRI, or that the 8 seed would advance to semis?
Anything can happen at IRI!

Fair points. Hmm. I probably need to ease up on some expectations this year.

[thatprogrammer]

Originally Posted by jtrv

Fair points. Hmm. I probably need to ease up on some expectations this year.

Also, there is no real way to tell how good teams will be at IRI. Some teams get much better due to hardware improvements and driver practice while others get worse due to a lack of driver practice before the event.

[efoote868]

Originally Posted by thatprogrammer

Also, there is no real way to tell how good teams will be at IRI. Some teams get much better due to hardware improvements and driver practice while others get worse due to a lack of driver practice before the event.

And there are at least a few teams that use IRI as driver practice / try outs to replace graduating seniors on the drive team.

[Kellen Hill]

Some teams also do foolish things like building a new robot

[Kevin Leonard]

Originally Posted by Kellen Hill

Some teams also do foolish things like building a new robot

OH SHOOT SON

[Jack S.]

Originally Posted by Kellen Hill

Some teams also do foolish things like building a new robot

Honestly though, what are those teams thinking? What a stupid idea.

[fishing_cat]

Using pre scouting data that we collected for IRI, I based these seeds off of the 4536 scouting database, and furthermore based it off of the teams Teleop Tower Decrease at champs or last event played. I then mocked up how it would work, if I was picking bots for all teams, and included some bias that might happen as well. Overall this was quite fun! Here is my mockup of how it would look like:

179 - 195 - 330 - 1640 W
3683 - 1241 - 1806 - 233 QF
3641 - 2481 - 1114 - 2771 QF
1024 - 67 - 2052 - 910 SF
118 - 2056 - 217 - 2502 QF
494 - 868 - 16 - 1405 F
5460 - 2451 - 3130 - 2826 SF
4039 - 4587 - 27 - 1718 QF

179 - 195 - 330 - 1640
179 had averaged around 7 balls in teleop at champs according to the stats, so they get ranked #1, they pick up the 3rd ranked robot, 195, because it's 195. Then in the second round of picks, they choose 330 because they could play defense with their arm mechanism, and you know, they won Champs as well. Last pick of alliance selection they choose 1640, a nice bot with a scaler, and can shoot well.

3683 - 1241 - 1806 - 233
3683, one of the best low goal and defensive bots around ranked 2nd having weakened the tower with around 6.74 balls per match at Champs. They pick their Canadian friends 1241, because of how well the team plays with any team (and bias). In the second round they pick 1806, a team with a nice shooter and robot that can overcome almost any blocker. Finally they pick 233, another low goal bot, that will just be there as a backup defense bot, just in case 3683 losses their blocking ability.

3641 - 2481 - 1114 - 2771
3641 ranked 4th after the fictional quals, decreasing the tower by around 6.43 at Champs. They decide to pick the beasts that are 2481, the Champs at Champs. During the second round of picks, they decide to go with 1114, who finally is tuned to 99% perfection of not choking. Last but not least, they pick 2771, another bot that, when undefended, can single handedly drop 12 boulders in the tower. They pick them for defense with their intake that drops bounders into the shooter.

1024 - 67 - 2052 - 910
1024 ranked 5th putting around 6.38 boulders into the tower at Champs. They decide to go with a machine similar to 1678, and go with 67, the Mildly HOT team, if you base their number off of Fahrenheit. Their second pick is 2052, the team that knocked them out at the Carson finals. Finally they pick 910, The Foley Freeze, to play defense (And to cool down the HOT teams motors after matches). They played defense on Carver for the finals, so they know the ropes.

118 - 2056 - 217 - 2502
118 ranked 10th with 5.99, but jumped to the 5th spot because of inter picking. They pick 20566, their GTR-E buddies. 2056 was picked low because of how easily it is to block their shooter from the outerworks. They then pick 217 because it’s a tall bot, a good shooter, and they could possibly triple hang. Their last pick is 2502, a batter shooter and can play some great defense (and hang) and was the backup bot for 2056 at 2015 IRI (which they won). 2056 has an alliance that can mesh with their drive team very well, and might make it to Semis tbh.

494 - 868 - 16 - 1405
I personally like this alliance because of one thing that I say to jajabinx124 over and over again, ‘swerve drive wins championships’. 494 ranked 11th, but got seeded 6th after inter picking. They pick 868 because of their new 2 ball auto and 494’s swerve drive that won’t interfere with it. The second bot they pick is 16 because of swerve drive, shooting, defense capability, and scaling. Last they pick up a great, if not the best defense bot, 1405, to round out this alliance.

5460 - 2451 - 3130 - 2826
5460 ranked 12th, but now is the 7th alliance captain. They pick one of the best catapult teams out there, and almost undefendable from the outerworks, 2451. In the second round of picking they get 3130, another great catapult team with a tape measure scaler that is sure to wow some folks. Both 2451 and 3130 were knocked out in Tesla in the semis, on different sides of the bracket. The last pick they go for is a defensive bot, none other than 2826, looking to win at least one event this year.

4039 - 4587 - 27 - 1718
4039 ranked 16th overall, with a teleop tower decrease at 5.87 at champs, but got to be the 8th alliance captain. They pick up a steal, with 4587, a Texas team with 2 ball auto. They then pick up a team that can do the sally port, with 27 and with a heavy machine, could play hard defense. They then pick up 1718, another nice bot that won MSC with 27. This alliance wishes to out shoot the #1 alliance with this alliance.

[Chris is me]

Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard

5254 succeeds at taking the ball off the sideline from 4587, but then gets stuck on the moat during autonomous and misses their shot (It's only happened once this season,

Don't worry, since Shaky-Breaky didn't qualify for IRI this year, so you won't have to deal with Shaker Luck this time. Bad things only happen when you're paired with 2791.

(But who predicts their own team going on to the finals? )