FIRST 50 years ago / 50 years from now.

[GeeTwo]

Originally Posted by ASD20

...but I imagine that there is a point where teams are dense enough to saturate the sponsorship and mentor pools (I have no idea where this point is and I don't think anyone does). I think FRC still has quite a while to go before this issues start to exist, but if we are talking 50-100% of high schools, I think we will start to see some major problems with sustainability.

I would also note that the sponsorship and mentor pools do not necessarily scale with the number of high schools or population in general. While there are likely a suitable number of technicians in any given location, the availability of sponsors and mentors for a creative tech challenge is inherently related to the density of technical design and development taking place in the area.

We see this in our own area - while Slidell is certainly no tech powerhouse to challenge Detroit or Silicon Valley, we have a larger proportion of tech companies and tech-savvy federal agencies (Navy, NASA, FDA) nearby than most of the surrounding area. We have no state colleges or universities within a half hour, four high schools, and two solid FRC teams. Just an hour away and about the same distance from Bayou Regional, Baton Rouge has two major state universities, eight times our population, and fifteen times the number of high schools, but only 7 Teams.

[ctt956]

I predict that there will no longer be a machine shop shuttle driver, as the shuttles will drive themselves. I think(hope) FIRST will still exist, but instead of being needed to get people interested in STEM, it will just be "for fun"(for lack of a better term).

[Michael Hill]

In 50 years...

We might have actually convinced someone at FIRST that LiFePO4 batteries are a viable option.

We'll have re-standardized on more "modern" 20 degree pressure angle gears.

We're seriously considering issuing the game manual in only metric (but we're still machining everything in imperial).

My team will finally get around to building a swerve drive.

[Whatever]

Originally Posted by tjf

I was talking to some of 1257's students about science fiction literature and thought that, FIRST is a type of science fiction. 50 years ago this type of thing could only have been fiction and yet it is. If you were to explain to someone in 1966, 3 years before the moon landing, that teenagers would have the capability do build machines complicated as the work done at NASA, with some equation overlap?

This post reminded me of watching a video waaaay back when I was junior high about an engineering contest at MIT. So I googled away and found the video on you tube. It was broadcast on PBS in 1985. I think the members of this forum will find it interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9ijA4UBCQ0

I apologize if this video is well known on this forum but based on the number of views I am guessing not.

[jajabinx124]

Originally Posted by Whatever

This post reminded me of watching a video waaaay back when I was junior high about an engineering contest at MIT. So I googled away and found the video on you tube. It was broadcast on PBS in 1985. I think the members of this forum will find it interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9ijA4UBCQ0

I apologize if this video is well known on this forum but based on the number of views I am guessing not.

Holy moly that looks fun!! Thanks for sharing that video, I've never seen it.

[tjf]

Originally Posted by Whatever

This post reminded me of watching a video waaaay back when I was junior high about an engineering contest at MIT. So I googled away and found the video on you tube. It was broadcast on PBS in 1985. I think the members of this forum will find it interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9ijA4UBCQ0

I apologize if this video is well known on this forum but based on the number of views I am guessing not.

I had no idea that this video existed, and yet... It feels so familiar

I can't help but smile at the video.

Also, is that Woodie at 10:44!? That would certainly explain quite a bit.

[troy_dietz]

Originally Posted by tjf

Also, is that Woodie at 10:44!? That would certainly explain quite a bit.

Based on the 3rd image in this gallery: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/4...oodie-flowers/, I'm going to say yes.

[tjf]

Originally Posted by troy_dietz

Based on the 3rd image in this gallery: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/4...oodie-flowers/, I'm going to say yes.

Okay, so I feel dumb now. At 4:21 it shows and names him specifically as professor. In addition, it was part of their 270 course when he was there... Still though, interesting to see the evolution of the programs that would eventually (hope it's safe to say this) become FIRST.

[GeeTwo]

FIRST is absolutely an evangelistic organization - spreading the call to make the world a better place through a better understanding and exploitation of the details of how the world works. I am not aware of any evangelistic force that has succeeded so well that it no longer has a reason to exist. FIRST may wind up morphing and merging, but it will never end so long as there remain those of us loyal to its ideals. (with apologies/acknowledgements to J.K. Rowling).

Predicting the future is always a tricky proposition. A co-worker today mentioned how Heinlein had people working in space in the outer solar system with "slipsticks" on their belts. (OBTW, I had the distinct pleasure of showing my son Perry how one works just last night!) As I think about FIRST in 50 years, I realize that (assuming it exists in recognizable form), it will be thrice its current age. How does today compare to 2000, when FIRST was only eight years old?
From 1992-2000, only two games featured game pieces which were not spherical. From 2001 to 2016, seven games featured non-spherical game pieces (I consider Lunacy cells to be non-spheres).
From 1992-2016, only two games featured a game surface which was not primarily horizontal carpet. By 2066, I expect this to be commonplace.
From 1992-2016, only a handful of robots have not had wheels (#71's The Beast in 2002 Zone Zeal, quite a few pyramid climbers in 2012, a few stationary stackers in 2015, and not much else) . By 2066, I expect non-wheeled robots to be at least as common as swerve drive today, probably as common as non-skid-steer today, and possibly so common that anyone who is planning something so old-fangled as wheels will have to think at least twice before posting it on Chief Delphi, and will be considered an absolute genius if it is executed so well that it actually wins some events.

I expect Chief Delphi to still exist, though it will not use technologies readily recognizable to the dinosaurs who were posting to it in back in the 'teens, much less the 'aughts. I'll go 90% on being able to access a thread from 2016, 80% from 2004, and 65% from 2001.

Originally Posted by tjf

Also, is that Woodie at 10:44!? That would certainly explain quite a bit.

I have very little doubt. While Dean invented FIRST, it is easily arguable that Herb Richardson and Woodie Flowers invented what is now known as FRC through the MIT engineering course 2.70 (now 2.007), "Introduction to Design and Manufacturing". Quite a few of the 3946 alumni proudly tread on Woodie's brick in the 1966 section at LA Tech (known as Louisiana Polytechnic back in 1966, which is oh-so-curiously fifty years ago today).

[sdangelo]

Originally Posted by tjf

I had no idea that this video existed, and yet... It feels so familiar

I believe they showed this video (or part of it) when the US Chief Technology Offer, Megan Smith, spoke at the World Championship in 2015. She's in the video, starting at 1:33.

Edit: Found the World Championship footage. Dean's List Lunch 2015, starting at 1:15.

[Noudvanbrunscho]

50 years from now, FRC is known in Europe as it is in the USA now. We can choose our own regional here in stead of traveling more than one day.
Mabye we have our own championship, let's hope not though. 2 is enough

[marshall]

Originally Posted by Noudvanbrunscho

50 years from now, FRC is known in Europe as it is in the USA now. We can choose our own regional here in stead of traveling more than one day.
Mabye we have our own championship, let's hope not though. 2 is enough

Championships for everyone!

[mastachyra]

What teams will be able to boast that one of their alum have been president of the United States? or walked on Mars?

FIRST will have some heavy hitting advocates by then.

[dodar]

Originally Posted by mastachyra

What teams will be able to boast that one of their alum have been president of the United States? or walked on Mars?

FIRST will have some heavy hitting advocates by then.

And they will be advocating for a Mars Championship.

[SpaceBiz]

Some predictions for 50 years from now

-FRC will be larger in Europe than it is today in the US and Canada
-More than 95% of high schools with 1000+ students in the US will have a FIRST or similar (like VEX) program at their high school.
-FRC will adopt a four-tier system similar to FLL to accommodate the extremely large number of teams in North America.
-It is accepted that no one will ever break the OP robotics streak of 23 regionals because almost all first level (as in you don't need to qualify) events are comparable to today's district events.
-The record for the most district event wins in a row will be more than 23.
-Major Powerhouse teams will have a large following of people who were never team members, mentors, or associated with the team in a similar way.
-These teams will earn profits by licensing apparel and/ or other merchandising
-These teams will also have sponsors primarily interested in sponsoring for brand visibility similar to NASCAR sponsors today (albeit for less money and secondarily as a charitable act)
-ESPN and other networks will pay real money to have the video rights to events at the highest levels of play. This will help cover some or all registration costs for the most competitive offseason events. (Think IRI)
-Electronics/Robotics brands will also sponsor events at high levels of play and FIRST itself for brand visibility.
-All events you need to qualify for will have announcers/anchors talking about the prior match and the next match similar to how they do it at IRI today. This will make watching only one live stream more entertaining.
-There will be a weekly match highlights show produced in a similar fashion to NFL RedZone. By adapting it for FRC the major difference will probably be a longer delay. This will allow for people to effectively watch FRC recreationally when there are hundreds of smaller events going on at once.
-Fantasy FRC will be mainstream, not as big as fantasy football, but still offered by major fantasy sites like ESPN. Many people will play for money.
-There will have been multiple end games that have required flying minibots
-Chairman's wins at super-district championships (third level of four) will consistently do more than what our hall of fame teams currently do
-Dean's list will have more than 4 levels compared to today's three
-Almost or all dean's list winners will get a full ride to the college of their choice
-The total value of prizes excluding scholarships for those who win will exceed $30000
-The second highest level of dean's list (today's Dean's list finalists) will receive prizes similar in value to today's winners
-FIRST will have almost achieved its goal of sufficiently achieving recognition of Science and Technology within the US and Canada. Most efforts will now be to achieve this in other less developed countries.
-FIRST will pursue closing the gender imbalance in other countries more than in the US and Canada.
-Almost everyone will know what you are talking about when you reference FIRST as a noun
-IRI or the comparable event 50 years from now will make IRI this year look like childsplay. People will look back at footage from stronghold and think about how simple FRC was back in 2016.