Registration 2017

[MaGiC_PiKaChU]

Originally Posted by Richard Wallace

Quebec is growing also. I wonder how many years until they go District?

Which will be the first District with a main language other than English?

How many years before we get a 2nd regional? seriously we are only attending one this year because Ontario is no longer an option

[Kevin Leonard]

Originally Posted by MaGiC_PiKaChU

How many years before we get a 2nd regional? seriously we are only attending one this year because Ontario is no longer an option

That stinks! I assumed 3360 would try to make the trip down to the Tech Valley Regional with 3990 at least.

When NE went districts, that's when the Tech Valley Regional started, as we could no longer go into New England from the Albany area. It's unfortunate that didn't happen with Montreal.

[Mark McLeod]

2468 = today's team count

Including:

• 13 resurrected veteran teams (the longest missing last played 6 years ago)
• 18 new "veteran" teams
• 156 rookie teams

27% of last season's teams (851) have not been heard from yet (not unusual).

[sanddrag]

Originally Posted by Mark McLeod

27% of last season's teams (851) have not been heard from yet (not unusual).

Wow. That's somewhat startling. 1/4 of teams don't show up for initial registration opening. I never knew that.

Do you have any stats on percentage of last year's rookies that have not yet shown up for year 2?

[Mark McLeod]

Originally Posted by sanddrag

Do you have any stats on percentage of last year's rookies that have not yet shown up for year 2?

~42% of 2nd year teams (last season's rookies) have not signed up for an event yet (167).

and in case you were going to ask ...

Last year at this time (given that this year's registration is a bit wonky)
~46% of 2nd year teams had not registered.

I think they are still slow starters.
My own local 2nd year team is still trying to get a new Alternate Contact & YPP in order to get registered.

Originally Posted by sanddrag

Wow. That's somewhat startling. 1/4 of teams don't show up for initial registration opening. I never knew that.

Remember that between 9% and 6% will not return this season and that means <20% of teams that are actually planning to return haven't been heard from.

[jwfoss]

Originally Posted by Mark McLeod

2468 = today's team count

Including:

• 13 resurrected veteran teams (the longest missing last played 6 years ago)
• 18 new "veteran" teams
• 156 rookie teams

27% of last season's teams (851) have not been heard from yet (not unusual).

Hey Mark, can you give us the list of resurrected vets and where the new vets are from? Thanks.

[Mark McLeod]

New vets:
Cupertino, CA 299
Granada Hills, CA 511
Middlesex, NJ 747
Kingsville, ON Canada 748
Oakville, ON Canada 1374
Kingston, ON Canada 2708
Marysville, OH 3888
Shenzhen, China 5833
Washington, DC USA 6238
Falls Church, VA USA 6239
Toronto, ON Canada 6240
Durham, NC USA 6241
Seattle, WA USA 6242
Monterrey , NLE Mexico 6243
Reese, MI USA 6244
Orange, CA USA 6245
La Porte City, IA USA 6246
Raleigh, NC USA 6248


Resurrected vets
Last played 2yr ago:
Toronto, ON, Canada 907
Richmond, KS 938
Kanata, ON 2994
Travelers Rest, SC 3651
Mississauga, ON 4777
Upland, CA 5107
Beijing, China 5451
Ottawa, ON 5652

3 yr:
Wanaque, NJ 265
Canoga Park, CA 3851
Honolulu, HI 4270

4 yr:
Beaverton, OR 2898

6 yr:
Lutherville Timonium, MD 1727

[Foster]

Originally Posted by Mark McLeod

Resurrected vets
6 yr:
Lutherville Timonium, MD 1727

Yay, REX is back!!! Very cool

[bobbysq]

Originally Posted by Mark McLeod

Resurrected vets

For a while it appeared that 6330 was a revival of 2625, being named "2625 - Arc Angels", but they seem to have changed their team name after realizing that they didn't get their old number.

[MARS_James]

Originally Posted by bobbysq

For a while it appeared that 6330 was a revival of 2625, being named "2625 - Arc Angels", but they seem to have changed their team name after realizing that they didn't get their old number.

They probably met the criteria for a Rookie Team instead of a returning veteran team. Honestly if I was in their shoes I would rather come in as a rookie then a veteran especially in a district system when I get +10 points just for existing.

[Allison K]

Hrm. The reserve capacity for all FiM districts was just increased significantly, taking the open capacity for almost all events down by a few spots. Southfield went from having 10 reserve to 19 reserve. Midland and Traverse City both went from single open to zero, West Michigan went from eight open to one, and Center Line went from 11 open to zero.

That changes our plans a bit.

[Zebra_Fact_Man]

Originally Posted by MARS_James

They probably met the criteria for a Rookie Team instead of a returning veteran team. Honestly if I was in their shoes I would rather come in as a rookie then a veteran especially in a district system when I get +10 points just for existing.

Idk man. Having a low number is definitely a plus for pick lists. The perception of experience is almost as powerful as the experience itself. Plus that +10 pts goes away in full in only 2 years. Whereas you keep the number indefinitely.

[Mark McLeod]

Registration is up about 3% over last year at this point in registration.

Here are two three revised registration progression plots of the delayed opening.
The first just jumps (pretty much a straight line) from the morning after the late registration opening to corresponding surge markers that are present every year.
The second is the more accurate one that simply slides the opening day as Jon suggested earlier. Just plotting the actual delayed date looks better, but makes it harder to see the correlation between that day-early District arc and the 2012 regular arc.
The third uses the real dates for registration who's start dates spread over a couple of weeks in the past decade. Mile-marker events such as 2nd District opening and unrestricted Regionals, even US holidays are uncorrelated giving subsequent years a slanted look. It's most noticeable between the light green 2016 line (earliest registration ever opened) and the white 2017 plot (latest it ever opened).

The first plot variation better compares the fast fingers on the first day, while still correlating with the standard markers (where the surges are every year), such as the 2nd District event registration day where a lot of MI teams come out of hiding.

See if this is understandable and give me your preference.
I played with stretching the interpolation, but that didn't look much different than a straight line.

[Jon Stratis]

Ok, I've rewritten this like 5 times, I keep going back and forth.

The first one could be a useful comparison next year with the new preference system Frank has talked about in the blog - does the introduction of a new system for initial event registration significantly change how registration goes? But at the same time, I feel like it probably overstates what would have happened if registration proceeded normally this year, and could lead to false conclusions.

The second one I like for the simple fact that it represents reality. It shows that, despite being a week late, the initial surge "made up" for that lost week of registration immediately.

Looking at these graphs today, I was struck with a burning desire to see a third graph (or a third and fourth), one showing the difference, day to day, in registrations between years. So one line that shows (2017-2016), another for (2016-2015), etc. each day as registration proceeds. Does that difference generally stay the same? Does it increase at a predictable rate? Are there sudden surges some years that we can't explain? And, perhaps most appropriately, how does it show the difference between this year and last year?

[Mark McLeod]

The second plot is not actually reality either, so you may want to see a fully uncorrected plot.

Opening day in the 2000's up until about 2014 was typically halfway between this year's delayed opening and last year's opening. That's why I've been using Oct 3 as a normalized starting point for past years.