Most Competitive Events 2017

[vann2648]

After 2 rounds of registration, which events seem to be the most stacked for 2017?

My picks are Waterford (27, 33, 67, 217), Las Vegas(118, 148, 842, 1538) and Midwest (16, 111, 1986, 2451)

[cadandcookies]

Originally Posted by vann2648

After 2 rounds of registration, which events seem to be the most stacked for 2017?

My picks are Waterford (27, 33, 67, 217), Waterloo(118, 148, 842, 1538) and Midwest (16, 111, 1986, 2451)

Ah yes, Waterloo, Nevada. I know it well.

Edit: In all seriousness though, the actual Waterloo event has 1114, 2056, 3683, 4039, and probably some others I'm missing, so it's likely to be an extremely good event.

[vann2648]

Originally Posted by cadandcookies

Ah yes, Waterloo, Nevada. I know it well.

Fixed, thanks

[jajabinx124]

Originally Posted by vann2648

Fixed, thanks

For a split second I was confused when I only saw southern teams attending Waterloo. It made me scratch my head when I didn't see Canadian teams, but nvm it was Las Vegas all along..

[Golfer4646]

Hub City is looking pretty decent, (at least compared to what I remember of it from previous years). (118, 624, 1477, 2481)



One thing I have learned about FRC is that there is no such thing as an "easy" event. And when you think you have found one, there is always 2 or more teams that will surprise you, and POOF, there goes the hope for an "easy" event!

[Caleb Sykes]

Originally Posted by Golfer4646

One thing I have learned about FRC is that there is no such thing as an "easy" event. And when you think you have found one, there is always 2 or more teams that will surprise you, and POOF, there goes the hope for an "easy" event!

How would you define an "easy" event?

[MARS_James]

Originally Posted by Golfer4646

One thing I have learned about FRC is that there is no such thing as an "easy" event. And when you think you have found one, there is always 2 or more teams that will surprise you, and POOF, there goes the hope for an "easy" event!

IDK about that, I know this may not be considered PC or GP but I feel like if the delta between your team and the next most competitive team at the event is large enough then you can have an easy event. For example I feel that 1114 had an "easy" event at Greater Toronto Central 2015, I don't think anyone can argue that.

[Brian Maher]

Here are some estimates I did using historical OPR data:

Rank	All Teams	Top 24		Top 8
1	misjo		ctwat		miwat
2	miwat		inwla		nvlv
3	ctwat		nvlv		onwat
4	inpmh		miwat		misjo
5	mitry		cthar		ilch
6	njski		misjo		ctwat
7	inwla		mitry		ilpe
8	ilpe		ilpe		cthar
9	miwmi		njski  		utwv
10	mihow		ilch		txlu

Observations:

• The ubiquity of district events on this list. Of the unique events listed, there were 11 district events, compared to 5 regionals. This list is 69% district events, which comprise 59% of non-DCMP/CMP events next year.
• District breakdown: 5 FIM, 2 NE, 2 IN, 1 ONT, 1 MAR

One thing that should be kept in mind is that many events have still yet to let in teams from the waitlist. Tech Valley, one of last year's more competitive regionals, is full at 21 teams with a capacity of 36 last year and is ranked 118, 121, and 119 by these metrics. In addition, top teams registering for third plays could shake things up, especially the Top 8 rankings.


OPR is by no means a perfect number, but I believe this lends some insight to this (purely for fun) discussion. For calculations, I used a weighted average of max-OPR z scores from the past three years, with more recent OPRs weighted more heavily.

[scca229]

Originally Posted by Brian Maher

One thing that should be kept in mind is that many events have still yet to let in teams from the waitlist.

Bingo (or should I say Jackpot?). 987 in Las Vegas would be a glaring omission from that event roster. Can't imagine they wouldn't be at their home event.

[pwnageNick]

Originally Posted by vann2648

After 2 rounds of registration, which events seem to be the most stacked for 2017?

My picks are Waterford (27, 33, 67, 217), Las Vegas(118, 148, 842, 1538) and Midwest (16, 111, 1986, 2451)

Can't leave 2338 out of the discussion on Midwest (2015, 2016 Midwest Chairmans, 2015 Midwest Champs, 2014, 2016 Midwest Finalists, not to mention 2015 World division champs and SF's on Einstein).

Midwest is also only at 44 teams right now, and usually has well over 50 teams every year so there could be even more highly competitive teams to register.

[avanboekel]

Originally Posted by pwnageNick

Can't leave 2338 out of the discussion on Midwest (2015, 2016 Midwest Chairmans, 2015 Midwest Champs, 2014, 2016 Midwest Finalists, not to mention 2015 World division champs and SF's on Einstein).

Midwest is also only at 44 teams right now, and usually has well over 50 teams every year so there could be even more highly competitive teams to register.

2015 finalists.

I'm really looking forward to both IL regionals this year. Tons of talented teams at both events! Midwest has lots of high level visitors this year (1511, 1592, 1986, 2848). 16 returning too!

[Noudvanbrunscho]

No doubt i'm going to watch 'ONT District - Ryerson University Event 2017'
with: 188, 610, 1114, 1241, 1310, 1325.
With 610, 1241 and 3560 u have the winning alliance of Waterloo 2016.
And what do i have to say about the other teams?

[vann2648]

For New England, both Connecticut events look strong (Waterbury and Hartford) with 177, 195, 230 and 558 attending each event.

[Chris is me]

Originally Posted by vann2648

For New England, both Connecticut events look strong (Waterbury and Hartford) with 177, 195, 230 and 558 attending each event.

Without really any viable alternate events for CT teams, this was inevitable. WPI filled up very quickly and it's really oddly timed. RIDE is possible if you skip Hartford, I guess. Otherwise it's the greater Boston area or NH, and those events weren't very conveniently timed either.

Here's hoping these really top-heavy events don't crush the middle tier teams out of a chance at States. I'm sure it'll be fine, but it's certainly intimidating.

[Richard Wallace]

Originally Posted by Brian Maher

Here are some estimates I did using historical OPR data:

Rank	All Teams	Top 24		Top 8
1	misjo		ctwat		miwat
2	miwat		inwla		nvlv
3	ctwat		nvlv		onwat
4	inpmh		miwat		misjo
5	mitry		cthar		ilch
6	njski		misjo		ctwat
7	inwla		mitry		ilpe
8	ilpe		ilpe		cthar
9	miwmi		njski  		utwv
10	mihow		ilch		txlu

Observations:

• The ubiquity of district events on this list. Of the unique events listed, there were 11 district events, compared to 5 regionals. This list is 69% district events, which comprise 59% of non-DCMP/CMP events next year.
• District breakdown: 5 FIM, 2 NE, 2 IN, 1 ONT, 1 MAR

Great to see my FIM St. Joseph District on this list!

However, since all of the FIM District events* have several unfilled slots now (i.e, many teams are waiting to see which event they will get), there is a strong likelihood that the competitiveness of any given event will change when the rosters are filled. Stay tuned.

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*This also applies to many events in other Districts, and many Regionals.