Most Competitive Events 2017

[Brian Maher]

Here are some estimates I did using historical OPR data:

Rank	All Teams	Top 24		Top 8
1	misjo		ctwat		miwat
2	miwat		inwla		nvlv
3	ctwat		nvlv		onwat
4	inpmh		miwat		misjo
5	mitry		cthar		ilch
6	njski		misjo		ctwat
7	inwla		mitry		ilpe
8	ilpe		ilpe		cthar
9	miwmi		njski  		utwv
10	mihow		ilch		txlu

Observations:

• The ubiquity of district events on this list. Of the unique events listed, there were 11 district events, compared to 5 regionals. This list is 69% district events, which comprise 59% of non-DCMP/CMP events next year.
• District breakdown: 5 FIM, 2 NE, 2 IN, 1 ONT, 1 MAR

One thing that should be kept in mind is that many events have still yet to let in teams from the waitlist. Tech Valley, one of last year's more competitive regionals, is full at 21 teams with a capacity of 36 last year and is ranked 118, 121, and 119 by these metrics. In addition, top teams registering for third plays could shake things up, especially the Top 8 rankings.


OPR is by no means a perfect number, but I believe this lends some insight to this (purely for fun) discussion. For calculations, I used a weighted average of max-OPR z scores from the past three years, with more recent OPRs weighted more heavily.