Most Competitive Events 2017

[vann2648]

After 2 rounds of registration, which events seem to be the most stacked for 2017?

My picks are Waterford (27, 33, 67, 217), Las Vegas(118, 148, 842, 1538) and Midwest (16, 111, 1986, 2451)

[cadandcookies]

Originally Posted by vann2648

After 2 rounds of registration, which events seem to be the most stacked for 2017?

My picks are Waterford (27, 33, 67, 217), Waterloo(118, 148, 842, 1538) and Midwest (16, 111, 1986, 2451)

Ah yes, Waterloo, Nevada. I know it well.

Edit: In all seriousness though, the actual Waterloo event has 1114, 2056, 3683, 4039, and probably some others I'm missing, so it's likely to be an extremely good event.

[vann2648]

Originally Posted by cadandcookies

Ah yes, Waterloo, Nevada. I know it well.

Fixed, thanks

[jajabinx124]

Originally Posted by vann2648

Fixed, thanks

For a split second I was confused when I only saw southern teams attending Waterloo. It made me scratch my head when I didn't see Canadian teams, but nvm it was Las Vegas all along..

[Golfer4646]

Hub City is looking pretty decent, (at least compared to what I remember of it from previous years). (118, 624, 1477, 2481)



One thing I have learned about FRC is that there is no such thing as an "easy" event. And when you think you have found one, there is always 2 or more teams that will surprise you, and POOF, there goes the hope for an "easy" event!

[Caleb Sykes]

Originally Posted by Golfer4646

One thing I have learned about FRC is that there is no such thing as an "easy" event. And when you think you have found one, there is always 2 or more teams that will surprise you, and POOF, there goes the hope for an "easy" event!

How would you define an "easy" event?

[MARS_James]

Originally Posted by Golfer4646

One thing I have learned about FRC is that there is no such thing as an "easy" event. And when you think you have found one, there is always 2 or more teams that will surprise you, and POOF, there goes the hope for an "easy" event!

IDK about that, I know this may not be considered PC or GP but I feel like if the delta between your team and the next most competitive team at the event is large enough then you can have an easy event. For example I feel that 1114 had an "easy" event at Greater Toronto Central 2015, I don't think anyone can argue that.

[Brian Maher]

Here are some estimates I did using historical OPR data:

Rank	All Teams	Top 24		Top 8
1	misjo		ctwat		miwat
2	miwat		inwla		nvlv
3	ctwat		nvlv		onwat
4	inpmh		miwat		misjo
5	mitry		cthar		ilch
6	njski		misjo		ctwat
7	inwla		mitry		ilpe
8	ilpe		ilpe		cthar
9	miwmi		njski  		utwv
10	mihow		ilch		txlu

Observations:

• The ubiquity of district events on this list. Of the unique events listed, there were 11 district events, compared to 5 regionals. This list is 69% district events, which comprise 59% of non-DCMP/CMP events next year.
• District breakdown: 5 FIM, 2 NE, 2 IN, 1 ONT, 1 MAR

One thing that should be kept in mind is that many events have still yet to let in teams from the waitlist. Tech Valley, one of last year's more competitive regionals, is full at 21 teams with a capacity of 36 last year and is ranked 118, 121, and 119 by these metrics. In addition, top teams registering for third plays could shake things up, especially the Top 8 rankings.


OPR is by no means a perfect number, but I believe this lends some insight to this (purely for fun) discussion. For calculations, I used a weighted average of max-OPR z scores from the past three years, with more recent OPRs weighted more heavily.

[scca229]

Originally Posted by Brian Maher

One thing that should be kept in mind is that many events have still yet to let in teams from the waitlist.

Bingo (or should I say Jackpot?). 987 in Las Vegas would be a glaring omission from that event roster. Can't imagine they wouldn't be at their home event.

[pwnageNick]

Originally Posted by vann2648

After 2 rounds of registration, which events seem to be the most stacked for 2017?

My picks are Waterford (27, 33, 67, 217), Las Vegas(118, 148, 842, 1538) and Midwest (16, 111, 1986, 2451)

Can't leave 2338 out of the discussion on Midwest (2015, 2016 Midwest Chairmans, 2015 Midwest Champs, 2014, 2016 Midwest Finalists, not to mention 2015 World division champs and SF's on Einstein).

Midwest is also only at 44 teams right now, and usually has well over 50 teams every year so there could be even more highly competitive teams to register.

[avanboekel]

Originally Posted by pwnageNick

Can't leave 2338 out of the discussion on Midwest (2015, 2016 Midwest Chairmans, 2015 Midwest Champs, 2014, 2016 Midwest Finalists, not to mention 2015 World division champs and SF's on Einstein).

Midwest is also only at 44 teams right now, and usually has well over 50 teams every year so there could be even more highly competitive teams to register.

2015 finalists.

I'm really looking forward to both IL regionals this year. Tons of talented teams at both events! Midwest has lots of high level visitors this year (1511, 1592, 1986, 2848). 16 returning too!

[Noudvanbrunscho]

No doubt i'm going to watch 'ONT District - Ryerson University Event 2017'
with: 188, 610, 1114, 1241, 1310, 1325.
With 610, 1241 and 3560 u have the winning alliance of Waterloo 2016.
And what do i have to say about the other teams?

[vann2648]

For New England, both Connecticut events look strong (Waterbury and Hartford) with 177, 195, 230 and 558 attending each event.

[tr6scott]

Originally Posted by vann2648

My picks are Waterford (27, 33, 67, 217)

To expand on Michigan, a little. I have a sheet that tracks the district "strengths " based on a "Power Rating" which I have played with the calculation... Currently using the last three years data, using the FiM final ranking as a percentage, and summed. So if you finished 1st in the last 3 years in Michigan, your power ranking would be 3. As a reference point Last year MSC 102 teams had a PR=2.2 average.

In Michigan there are still 33% of the district spots to fill, so this is preliminary data, and numbers will move around as waitlist spots are cleared.

But as currently registered, Waterford is the number 1 competitive district, with and average PR=1.862, followed by St. Joseph PR=1.854

Top Michigan teams that are not currently registered for two events, that can significantly impact this distribution are: 107 (1), 68 (2), 4362(1), 2054(1), 3602(1), 3620(1)

This PR calculation with only looking a 3 years, negatively impacts some historically great teams in Michigan, 469 (which finished 1st in 2012 and 2013), 51, 245, 217, 314, 910 which all are impacted by single poor competition year result.

Last year the PR of Waterford (last years most competitive district) was on par with MSC, it doesn't look as competitive this year, but that could change when all the numbers shake out, but it does not seem to be moving in that direction.

Typically disclaimers, I think the data presented is accurate, but I am always making excel errors, YMMV.

[rwodonnell]

Has anyone else noticed that some of the most competitive district events have the word "Water" in the event name? FIM Waterford, Ontario Waterloo, NE Waterbury. I think we all know what this means...