Average score per match and cycle times

[AlexanderLuke]

Originally Posted by dardeshna

Generally, at the end of the season, we look back on these estimated values and laugh, knowing that they were totally unrealistic.

I take you mean unrealistic as in you expected robots to score faster and higher than what actually happened during the competition season?

Also, just for the curiosity and observation of us all, would you be willing to share your predictions of recent games?

[dardeshna]

Originally Posted by AlexanderLuke

I take you mean unrealistic as in you expected robots to score faster and higher than what actually happened during the competition season?

Also, just for the curiosity and observation of us all, would you be willing to share your predictions of recent games?

Yeah we overestimated quite a bit.

For the community's enjoyment - 12 high goals per match average for one initial strategy, 5 second cycles and 23 high goals per match for a catapult prototype. Keep in mind our robot's performance was "modest" - I believe the best we ever ended up with was 3 or 4 high goals with our spring powered shooter.

EDIT: And for RR (I was a freshman so I could be misquoting), but I think we were aiming for a few 4 tote stacks and never got past a couple 2-3 tote stacks.

[Monochron]

Originally Posted by dardeshna

For the community's enjoyment - 12 high goals per match average for one initial strategy, 5 second cycles and 23 high goals per match for a catapult prototype. Keep in mind our robot's performance was "modest" - I believe the best we ever ended up with was 3 or 4 high goals with our spring powered shooter.

I think this kind of overestimating probably came mostly from misunderstanding the tasks and lack of familiarity with robot performance. I'm not sure what kind of process you use for estimating, but having a seasoned team member consistently working on this each year is a good way to help. Study of previous games robot performance throughout a season really helps. This is something where a high quantity of knowledge is very important.

[MARS_James]

Originally Posted by dardeshna

EDIT: And for RR (I was a freshman so I could be misquoting), but I think we were aiming for a few 4 tote stacks and never got past a couple 2-3 tote stacks.

That awkward moment when i thought you meant Rebound Rumble, then was confused when you said tote stack

[Lil' Lavery]

For most games that involve cycling between a loading area and a scoring area, a "good" (1st round pick) team will successfully accomplish the task roughly 3 times per match.

[Citrus Dad]

After watching the 2012 and 2013 games, we estimated that a fast robot can run a full court scoring cycle about 4-5 times early in the year and up to 6 to 7 times by Champs. Worked like a charm for 2014. For 2015 we guessed that teams could put up 4 stacks (which turned out to be reach) but alliances could put up 6 easily. For 2016, we looked at the earlier cycle times and guessed 6 full court, but noted that they could also poach.

It turned out that our high point scores for 2014, 2015 and 2016 using this method was dead on. (My son and I chose the break point on are over/under for Champs right at the eventual high score each year.)

[Mike Schreiber]

Originally Posted by Citrus Dad

After watching the 2012 and 2013 games, we estimated that a fast robot can run a full court scoring cycle about 4-5 times early in the year and up to 6 to 7 times by Champs. Worked like a charm for 2014. For 2015 we guessed that teams could put up 4 stacks (which turned out to be reach) but alliances could put up 6 easily. For 2016, we looked at the earlier cycle times and guessed 6 full court, but noted that they could also poach.

How did you come to these predictions? Some sort of math or model? "Engineering Judgement"?

[Citrus Dad]

Originally Posted by Mike Schreiber

How did you come to these predictions? Some sort of math or model? "Engineering Judgement"?

Math and observations. We were counting the number of cycles and so we could see how many were happening for different levels of performance. In 2013 some teams got up to 7 and 8 cycles in Champs! So we see cycles of 20-30 seconds in most games.