paper: Comparison of Statistical Prediction Models

[Eugene Fang]

Something is going on that I don't understand. How are all of the prediction methods able to give predictions for matches where all teams haven't competed yet? I believe WM Elo carries over information from previous years, but I don't get how other predictors are able to give any prediction other than 50%.

Hope someone can explain. Thanks!

[Caleb Sykes]

Originally Posted by Eugene Fang

Something is going on that I don't understand. How are all of the prediction methods able to give predictions for matches where all teams haven't competed yet? I believe WM Elo carries over information from previous years, but I don't get how other predictors are able to give any prediction other than 50%.

Hope someone can explain. Thanks!

I normalize scores between years using week 1 averages and standard deviations, and then carry over every team's rating year to year.