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Unread 25-01-2017, 11:19
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Re: Efficient Points

Quals:
  • Suppose a gear bot and a fuel bot have a 50% (equal) chance to win a match.
  • In their winning matches, the average gear bots will win with more points vs the average ball bot.
  • If they're likely to get more points, they're likely to win more than 50% of matches vs bots who do balls
  • Therefore ball & gear bots will likely net the same RP in a 1-to-1 comparison.
  • Therefore gear bots likely rank higher than ball bots, all else equal (reference 2nd-order sort this year)
  • Since Qual schedules are random and not equal, seeding will likely be greatly determined by schedule difficulty, which is impossible to predict at this time. Yet securing as many points as possible solo will net the highest possible chances of seeding high.
  • Therefore Gear bots MUST hang in order to increase probability of winning in a random schedule and keep a 1-to-1 RP ratio with fuel bots that do not always win. It's not like gear bots have anything valuable to do with gears in the last 5 seconds anyways.

Elims:
  • 4 rotors are not a given, even at champs. Concerted effort must be put into it, and if all effort is given to it then there is likely little time for much else.
  • There are easy strategic scenarios against any alliance that employs a ball specialist since 4 rotors are even less likely than with a 3-gear alliance (outside of 0.2% of teams).
  • There are few strategic scenarios that that will win against an all-gear alliance where the best two gear bots at an event have paired up. Even at champs.
  • This ignores the 0.2% of teams (approximately 60 worldwide) who will find a way to net the required throughput and accuracy in order to outscore gears on a 'per-trip' basis.
  • Gear specialists will likely find a home with the top 0.2% of teams since it means that 0.2% of teams can focus on their role.

Thus for 99.8% of teams, gears give more efficient points.
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Last edited by JesseK : 25-01-2017 at 11:24.
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