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Unread 25-01-2017, 13:20
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Re: Efficient Points

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ginger Power View Post
I agree with this line of thinking if teams are forced to decide between Fuel OR Gears. But since teams can choose to do both, I think the numbers will work out differently for many teams.

I'm sure many teams are going to do what I call "Super Cycles" where they score a Gear and Fuel in the same repeatable sequence. For these teams I suspect they will choose to intake Fuel while driving to and from the Retrieval Zone and after they are finished depositing their Gear, they'll make a quick pit stop in the Key to score their collected Fuel. The time it takes to do this pit stop will determine the effectiveness of the Super Cycle vs. cycling Gears only. If things work out the way I'm thinking they will, teams that do Super Cycles will be more efficient (and a more valuable alliance partner) than teams that only have Gear cycling capability.
I suspect that an above-average gear bot is capable of a gear cycle in the time it takes an above-average ball bot to offload a full hopper. Whether the gears are worth it depends on whether the 'super cycle' bot will get the 3rd rotor or not, and what happened to its autonomous gear. Given equal resources and time to develop, I suspect the gear bot will have a more reliable 65-pt gear auton and can also reliably solo up through the 3rd rotor*. Disregarding hanging, a super-cycle bot must be able to hit 145 points with auton and 'super cycles'. This is doable, but IMO isn't what an above average team will produce. At that point it would come down to how the alliance would help.

*so long as partners at least drop their auton gears, this is likely so trivial a good gear bot can use the extra time to play defense on the super cycle bot

Quote:
Originally Posted by Donut View Post
Points 1 and 3 contradict each other. If gear bots as a whole are likely to win more than 50% of matches vs fuel bots, then either gear bots had a >50% chance of winning matches or fuel bots had a <50% chance to win matches (or both).

Additionally, I don't see how point 2 leads to the conclusion of point 3. How do we conclude margin of victory in winning matches predicts winning more total matches, unless you are predicting a higher average points scored per match for gear bots (wins and losses), which means a greater probability of winning matches in the first place (counter point 1)?
Point 2 makes an assertion that in matches where a gear threshold was met (3rd or 4th rotor) that the win margin will be much greater than for the losing matches when the gear threshold was not met. It means that this game is about hitting the marks for the rotors, and win/loss will likely be determined by who can do that more reliably.

Point 3 does contradict Point one, but Point 1 was a supposition rather than an assertion. Your second paragraph is correct - I presume that more points = more wins, and since starting the next rotor means many more points than an average cycle of balls into the boiler, it is likely a gear bot will win more. Sorry this wasn't clear.
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Last edited by JesseK : 25-01-2017 at 13:33.
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