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View Poll Results: What will be the highest average RP earned in week 1/2?
2.0-2.3 24 11.27%
2.31-2.6 27 12.68%
2.61-2.9 46 21.60%
2.91-3.2 63 29.58%
3.21-3.5 30 14.08%
3.51-3.8 14 6.57%
3.81-4.0 9 4.23%
Voters: 213. You may not vote on this poll

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Unread 10-02-2017, 12:55
JABot67 JABot67 is offline
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Re: What will be the highest average RP in week 1/2?

Yeah that's another variable. If your bot is epic, you will have to worry about defense for the entire length of teleop. Being double or triple teamed, possibly. Defenders won't just be the least offensively capable robots on the other alliance. There's enough incentive for powerhouses to play defense too.
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Unread 10-02-2017, 13:28
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Re: What will be the highest average RP in week 1/2?

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Originally Posted by JesseK View Post
Average "high" RP - meaning taking the average of the highest RP across all events?

Presume 1 loss for the highest seed and 10 matches per event average --> 1.8 RP

If a ball bot is higher seed, I predict that bot will get the 40kPa bonus 66% of the time ==> 0.66 RP
If a gear bot is higher seed, I predict that bot will get the 40kPa bonus 22% of the time due to being paired with a 40kPa-capable ball bot 1/3 of the time. ==> 0.22 RP
Extra RP for Rotor Bonus I predict will happen once per Week 1/2 quals, or about 0.01 RP average.

Range: 2.03 - 2.47 RP. Choosing the higher poll option due to the amount of districts, where 1 loss means roughly 1.92 RP rather than 1.8 RP.
I don't think the OP was asking for the average high RP - it was the high average RP. So the #1 seed's average RP score.

I voted in the highest range. Here's my reasoning: I think there will be some robots out there that can consistently get a fuel RP solo. I also think there will be some robots that can consistently score 7-8 gears solo in teleop. It's not out of the realm of possibility for one of those dozen or so teams to have a favorable qual schedule with teams who can fill in the blanks to get the full 4RP, somewhere in the 48 events across first two weeks.

Side note: ten years ago, there were 38 official events total. Just. Wow.
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Unread 10-02-2017, 14:47
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Re: What will be the highest average RP in week 1/2?

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Originally Posted by JABot67 View Post
Yeah that's another variable. If your bot is epic, you will have to worry about defense for the entire length of teleop. Being double or triple teamed, possibly. Defenders won't just be the least offensively capable robots on the other alliance. There's enough incentive for powerhouses to play defense too.
Historically for the past few years (except 2015 ha!) defense has been at a minimum during qualification matches and then ramped up during Elims.

Not saying we won't see it more this year, just that teams seem to try to maximize their RP potential rather than play defense. Wouldn't be surprised if we see the same this year.
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Unread 10-02-2017, 16:25
JABot67 JABot67 is offline
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Re: What will be the highest average RP in week 1/2?

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Originally Posted by FiM_Strategery View Post
Historically for the past few years (except 2015 ha!) defense has been at a minimum during qualification matches and then ramped up during Elims.

Not saying we won't see it more this year, just that teams seem to try to maximize their RP potential rather than play defense. Wouldn't be surprised if we see the same this year.
I absolutely agree that maximizing RP potential should be the main goal of qualification match strategy, at least for teams likely to seed high. I also think that this year, defense may be a big part of a valid strategy for maximizing RP potential in qualifications. If there were a CD poll asking us to predict the amount of defense this year on a scale from 2015 to 2007, I'd wager 2007+.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wayne TenBrink View Post
I wouldn't be too shocked to see average RP at district events actually go down a bit as the season goes on. There isn't usually a lot of defense being played in qualification matches at early events (when teams are still trying out their offensive capabilities), and teleop scoring is particularly susceptible to defense this year. By the time district teams are playing their second events, many of the less effective scorers will realize that they can be more productive by preventing their opponents from scoring.
I think I would actually be surprised if average RP went down as the season goes on. One thing I predict is that teams' shooters will become more dialed in as the season progresses. Dialed in shooters mean teams shooting more often, and more fuel RP. This might offset the dip in RP that may happen from defense becoming more common.
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Unread Yesterday, 12:20
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Re: What will be the highest average RP in week 1/2?

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Originally Posted by JABot67 View Post
I also chose 2.61-2.9. However, I do think there will be a few qual matches with all 4 rotors spinning. While I agree that it is only marginally possible for one robot to deliver 12 gears in a match, and that no team will be able to accomplish this consistently, I also think that there will be several stacked events in Weeks 1 and 2 in which several qual alliances are stacked with high-performing gearbots. Two good gearbots on the same alliance would only need to deliver 6 gears each. Three mediocre gearbots on the same alliance would only need to deliver 4 gears each. This still seems very hard, but definitely doable if the opposing alliance for some reason or another cannot play good defense.
As in most years, defense will be minimized during qualifications and maximized during elims. Most teams want to show what they can do offensively during quals, and will only resort to defense the last couple matches of qualifications if it is apparent that their offense isn't good enough to get picked. Therefore, I believe there will be a fair number of gear ranking points early in quals.

This game will be played very differently in eliminations than it is in qualifications.

My .02
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Unread Yesterday, 12:58
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Re: What will be the highest average RP in week 1/2?

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Originally Posted by one4robots View Post
As in most years, defense will be minimized during qualifications and maximized during elims. Most teams want to show what they can do offensively during quals, and will only resort to defense the last couple matches of qualifications if it is apparent that their offense isn't good enough to get picked. Therefore, I believe there will be a fair number of gear ranking points early in quals.

This game will be played very differently in eliminations than it is in qualifications.

My .02
Let's say 2/3 of the way through the match, your alliance has 3 rotors and your opponents have just 2. Why not switch to defense? It's easier to prevent your opponents from placing 2-4 gears than to place another 6 yourselves.

If your alliance wants to show off to scouts in the stands by placing as many gears as possible, then perhaps you should continue placing gears. But from a purely RP-based approach, defense is the answer.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JABot67 View Post
I absolutely agree that maximizing RP potential should be the main goal of qualification match strategy, at least for teams likely to seed high. I also think that this year, defense may be a big part of a valid strategy for maximizing RP potential in qualifications. If there were a CD poll asking us to predict the amount of defense this year on a scale from 2015 to 2007, I'd wager 2007+.
It is true that many recent games haven't featured heavy defense in qualifications. That's why I kinda really hope this is going to be a 2007 Rack 'n Roll level defensive game. That year we had some great defensively-minded designs, such as 703's 14-wheel robot that captained a regional-winning alliance (choosing 469 and 494) and made it to the semis on Galileo with 1712 and then-rookie 2056.

I'm just saying, maybe this year will be different, and defense will be played in quals. Just like the old days.
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Unread Yesterday, 13:17
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Re: What will be the highest average RP in week 1/2?

My assumption is that the first pick Average RP for Week 1 or 2 is going to below 2.0

Unlike last year, those additional ranking points are going to be very hard to come by.

The first thing to realize is that the 2 points for a win is the most important thing. All great teams will try to win first before getting the bonus points.

So about those bonus ranking points.

* 4 Rotors by one bot is highly unlikely so it will require two great gear bots paired together. But it will only be sporadic during elimination rounds during week 1 or 2. (Playoffs with its 100 point incentive are different story)

* 40kPa is 120(!) balls in the high goal during teleop which is a whole lot of made balls -- even more unlikely is that it takes 360 by a dumper bot. Autonomous changes things, but I think very few excellent teams are going to be concentrating on scoring balls in autonomous during week 1 or 2 as the 20 extra points for the autonomous gear is the clear preference.

Either of these require great teams paired together. That will open happen a few times during the elimination rounds week 1 or 2.

And even the great teams sometimes get paired with bad partners and don't win every match. So I'm fairly confident that the winning alliance will be have an average of less than 2.0 RP.

I suspect this will change drastically by week 6.
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Unread Yesterday, 13:54
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Re: What will be the highest average RP in week 1/2?

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Originally Posted by KelleyCook View Post
My assumption is that the first pick Average RP for Week 1 or 2 is going to below 2.0...
For clarity, does "The first pick Average RP" mean the number you get when you average the Average RPs for all first picks* in Weeks 1 and 2? Or are you saying that no first pick will have an Average RP above 2? (The thread poll is about the latter, but I agree about that former.)

*And does "first pick" mean first pick of the draft or first pick for all 8 alliances averaged?
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Unread Yesterday, 14:47
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Re: What will be the highest average RP in week 1/2?

Just for right now, the overall consensus is normalish, and the average seems to be about 2.9. Some really good points have been made in this thread.

Getting 3 RP and getting 4 RP are going to be significantly harder than last year, as the tasks are "split", i.e. it's harder to shoot while gearing than it was to shoot while breaching, since you have to breach anyway to get to the courtyard. While I think many top 8 teams in week 1/2 will be at or below 2.0, I think at least 1 team will break 3.0. Hub City, Central Valley, and San Diego will be some of the regionals to watch.
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