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  #106   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 10-21-2018, 09:55 AM
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Re: Registration 2019

Quote:
Originally Posted by nuclearnerd View Post
Sorry, that is hot garbage. Survival of the fastest clickers , with the most free schedules, is not by any means equitable. The provlems of that system have been discussed on CD at length. When there aren't enough close event slots, someone is going to lose out no matter the system. At least the lottery distributes the losses randomly.
Here's the difference. Presuming HQ could get a stable system under load (this really isn't that hard if designed properly), what events you get into, or don't are much more under the control of the teams than a black-box preference system, followed by a black-box waitlist system.

If I was a CA team worried about getting into SVR I'd make sure one of our mentors was at the keyboard when registration opened. If we really wanted CNY this year, perhaps we could have waited a bit more. But, in the end, the choice is ours, and with immediate feedback.

The problem with a "fairness" or "equity" discussion here is that it invariably leads to averaging out the "problems" (eg welcome to 2 waitlists) across all the teams.... The issue is that you can't take a team like that and spread out the pain -- it hit that team full-on. Perhaps, as a matter of statistics and averages, over a long time it would average out, but for something that's done 2x a year I suspect it's going to be a long, long, long, time to see that average out over ~4000 teams.
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Unread 10-21-2018, 10:39 AM
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Re: Registration 2019

I agree that not knowing your lottery number and waitlist position feels like having no control, but we never had any. The old system would also dump you on an opaque waiting list, especially during second picks, especially when RDs held back dozens of slots.

The problem isn't the lottery. It's the opaque waiting lists. If you knew you were 12th in line for an event with 6 open slots, you'd plan to drop that event and look for another (further maybe, but someone has to).
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Unread 10-21-2018, 10:52 AM
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Re: Registration 2019

The opaque waiting lists have always been opaque, and who knows, maybe that "position" 12 team had a very good chance because of the relationship with the RD, and it was the 1st positioned team that never stood a chance.

Aside from holding spots for late-formed rookies (a good thing) the waitlist is a major source of frustration, confusion, and opacity. Unfortunately now, the lottery is too.
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Unread 10-21-2018, 11:24 AM
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Re: Registration 2019

Quote:
Originally Posted by nuclearnerd View Post
I agree that not knowing your lottery number and waitlist position feels like having no control, but we never had any. The old system would also dump you on an opaque waiting list, especially during second picks, especially when RDs held back dozens of slots.

The problem isn't the lottery. It's the opaque waiting lists. If you knew you were 12th in line for an event with 6 open slots, you'd plan to drop that event and look for another (further maybe, but someone has to).
I mean, with the number of teams that jump around on and off waiting lists, combined with RDs working to get teams to their home regionals, it can be completely up to luck. 5123 made it into TVR in 2017 as #6 on the waitlist for 4 spots, and in 2018 as #11 on the waitlist for 3 spots.
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Unread 10-21-2018, 12:21 PM
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Re: Registration 2019

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Originally Posted by bdaroz View Post
...are much more under the control of the teams...
You are treating individual team control as an absolute good and the waitlist as a rigidly linear (First-in-first-out, FIFO) waitlist.

Individual team control is not an absolute good because different teams have different capabilities and needs.

The waitlists are an opportunity for our RDs to make deals and satisfy as many teams needs as possible. Trust your RDs, get to know them, help them when you can, and reach out when your team has a need. They will do everything they can to help you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nuclearnerd
Survival of the fastest clickers , with the most free schedules, is not by any means equitable.
+100

Teams with one overworked teacher/mentor and twenty enthusiastic students need a system that can flex to fit the facts that they have better things to do than be sitting on a website at 11:17am on a particular Tuesday morning in the offseason and that they're not going to raise the volunteers to fly anywhere. I'd prioritize that team getting their first local regional sometime in October or November over anyone lining up their second play, but that's just how my sense of priorities (weighting sustainability and cultural impact heavily) line up. The vast majority of teams that would have had a mentor available at 11:17am on a Tuesday will also have the flexibility to make a different regional work on a couple months notice for their second play, if your RD needs you to - and if you don't have that flexibility then reach out to your RD & make sure they understand your situation.
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Unread 10-21-2018, 01:15 PM
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Re: Registration 2019

Quote:
Originally Posted by s-neff View Post
Teams with one overworked teacher/mentor and twenty enthusiastic students need a system that can flex to fit the facts that they have better things to do than be sitting on a website at 11:17am on a particular Tuesday morning in the offseason and that they're not going to raise the volunteers to fly anywhere.
I'm am one of those overworked teachers with 20 students, and I almost always got online at the correct time to click the buttons. Usually I did it while students were copying some notes down

That being said, I'm very much in favor of some sort of home regional designation, even with the issues it may bring up:
- not every team has a regional close by.
- some that have a close regional have more teams than regional space.
- regional comp venues can change year-to-year (Los Angeles is in its fourth venue in as many years, Orange County is in its third in four years.)

For first event reg, a team should get a spot at a nearby competition. For $5000 in fees, I think that is a fair request.
For second event reg, all guarantees are off the table.
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Unread 10-21-2018, 01:18 PM
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Re: Registration 2019

Quote:
Originally Posted by s-neff View Post
You are treating individual team control as an absolute good and the waitlist as a rigidly linear (First-in-first-out, FIFO) waitlist.
Yes and no, individual team control is good, as it also solves the transparency problem is better than what we are doing now. It is absolutely better, but not absolutely best or absolutely good. (Just as the Preference system is not absolutely bad.) As far as the waitlist goes, I consider it rigidly opaque, not rigidly linear. I'm under no illusion that the waitlist is FIFO - far from it. Though, to be honest I could see how newer teams might get that impression.

(Put this way, if waitlist decisions became transparent I think CD would be a very different place.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by s-neff View Post
Teams with one overworked teacher/mentor and twenty enthusiastic students need a system that can flex to fit the facts that they have better things to do than be sitting on a website at 11:17am on a particular Tuesday morning in the offseason and that they're not going to raise the volunteers to fly anywhere. I'd prioritize that team getting their first local regional sometime in October or November over anyone lining up their second play, but that's just how my sense of priorities (weighting sustainability and cultural impact heavily) line up. The vast majority of teams that would have had a mentor available at 11:17am on a Tuesday will also have the flexibility to make a different regional work on a couple months notice for their second play, if your RD needs you to - and if you don't have that flexibility then reach out to your RD & make sure they understand your situation.
That may be true, but that is entirely within the team's control, not a lottery outside the team's control. Here's another point - I can spend $2 on a Mega Millions ticket right now and know there is an independent auditor and controls in place to ensure a fair (and televised) draw. We spend $5,000+ and have no visibility into the process, or even if the draws are truly random.

There have been far too many threads/posts calling for more transparency for me to link. My argument is that FFA is good because it solves the transparency problem, and puts the controls back directly into the hands of the teams. The current process is opaque, and the fairness is not evenly distributed within the small number of iterations we may end up using it for, and is therefore disproportionately unfair.
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Unread 10-21-2018, 02:31 PM
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Re: Registration 2019

Quote:
Originally Posted by anishde View Post
I mean, with the number of teams that jump around on and off waiting lists, combined with RDs working to get teams to their home regionals, it can be completely up to luck. 5123 made it into TVR in 2017 as #6 on the waitlist for 4 spots, and in 2018 as #11 on the waitlist for 3 spots.
Hey, I thought the waitlist system was opaque.
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Unread 10-21-2018, 03:02 PM
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Re: Registration 2019

The best solution would be to have enough local(ish) regional play slots for the amount of teams that want second plays over a spread out time frame to help with scheduling conflicts. However that is difficult and likely wishful thinking. Most of these problems seem to stem from not enough slots or slots that conflict with each other. In the Mountain West Region we have Vegas Utah and Idaho all going on at the same time. Utah and Idaho historically have a lot of cross over that can't happen now and all those teams need to look elsewhere for second plays. Additionally in Mountain West Colorado is the week immediately before Utah and Idaho which means teams who want this have to do back to back events. I'm thinking the best solution is more slots and HQ working with the RDs closer to make sure that events with similar team pools are spread out so that it doesn't add pressure on the system elsewhere. However I don't see this as particularly likely to happen any time soon. \_(ツ)_/ We can debate the lottery system as long as we want but its just a symptom of the larger problem of more teams wanting second plays than there are spots. (I'm aware that adding more regionals is not easy but it would go a long way to help alleviate the problems currently faced)
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Unread 10-21-2018, 03:19 PM
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Re: Registration 2019

Whether it's luck or skill in registering, a mismatch in supply and demand means we're going to have winners and losers.

This year it looks like we may not be total "winners" -- we are registered for our great nearby regional that we love, but we're likely locked out of the handful of second events that we think are affordable for us in travel $$ and time (so yes I'm aware we're also relatively lucky).

I used to oppose the idea of eliminating Stop Build, but I'm starting to think this would have been a great year for it - it would have relieved a lot of demand for multiple plays and made the allocation of practice/build time more equitable - especially if there was some anticipation of a significant shortage of capacity.
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Unread 10-22-2018, 03:13 PM
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Re: Registration 2019

New England has had a steady net gain of about 10 teams per season since districts started in 2014. This season there is currently a net loss of 13 teams.

Is it possible to see what New England registration looked like at this time last season?
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Unread 10-22-2018, 03:35 PM
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Re: Registration 2019

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick View Post
New England has had a steady net gain of about 10 teams per season since districts started in 2014. This season there is currently a net loss of 13 teams.

Is it possible to see what New England registration looked like at this time last season?
See thumbnail for FiM YoY #of FRC Teams growth figures since 2008. I expect it is too soon to be making comparisons that include 2019.
----
Edit: added adjusted comparison with 2019 based on same-date YoY early numbers.
Attached Thumbnails
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ID:	23596  Click image for larger version

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Last edited by Richard Wallace : 10-22-2018 at 06:50 PM.
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Unread 10-22-2018, 04:24 PM
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Re: Registration 2019

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick View Post
New England has had a steady net gain of about 10 teams per season since districts started in 2014. This season there is currently a net loss of 13 teams.

Is it possible to see what New England registration looked like at this time last season?
NE had 190 teams a year ago vs 195 at the same point this year.
You can look at Justin's team totals for the 19th for this seasons numbers.

P.S.
Michigan had 419 teams showing at this same point in the registration process last year.

Here are the numbers from last year.
2017 registration as of 10/19
----------------------------------------
1741 -- Regionals (less Texas/New Mexico teams who are now Districts)
190 --- NE
419 --- Michigan
123 --- Mid-Atlantic
127 --- Chesapeake
75 ---- Georgia
63 ---- North Carolina
153 --- Pacific Northwest
49 ---- Indiana
58 ---- Israel
159 --- Ontario
143 --- Texas/New Mexico (as Regional teams)
Attached Files
File Type: xls NEteams_asof_10-19-18.xls (28.5 KB, 18 views)
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Last edited by Mark McLeod : 10-22-2018 at 06:05 PM.
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Unread 10-22-2018, 06:27 PM
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Re: Registration 2019

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark McLeod View Post
You can look at Justin's team totals for the 19th for this seasons numbers.
Things are pretty slow changing these past few days, but here's today's numbers.
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Unread 10-23-2018, 01:24 AM
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Re: Registration 2019

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Originally Posted by jtrv View Post
Things are pretty slow changing these past few days, but here's today's numbers.
I see there are now 23 returning teams, can you list all of them again?

Thanks!
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