How big will FIRST ever get?

[Joe Johnson]

Raul, Bill, etc.,

I would be a bit careful about projections of the current trend into the future.

There are a lot of confounding inputs that can mask the trend.

I am amazed, frankly, that the growth continued at all given the tight economy that we have had. With rumors of cutbacks, actual cutbacks, and rumors of even deeper cutbacks, I am surprized that the growth did not reverse.

Frankly, I don't think FIRST has helped itself with the game design in the past several years.

In my opinion, it is quite likely that the growth rate will pick up again with the economy. If FIRST puts out a TV friendly game, this thing could explode.

I have been saying it for a number of years, but I think that this upcoming year is perhaps the most critical year for FIRST in its history.

Joe J.

P.S. My guess is that FIRST (as it is currently configured) will top out at about 4,000 teams. That is basically 1/5 of all the high schools in America.

P.P.S. I think that a league based on the EDU kit could easily reach close to 70-80% of high schools. Time will tell whether or not FIRST will take advantage of this opportunity...