12-12-2004, 07:03
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Join Date: Jun 2001
Rookie Year: 1998
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Posts: 3,478
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Pre-Week XIV Playoff Analysis
Well, it hasn’t changed much between this week and last week, though determining who gets in is much easier. All of the top 12 can reach the playoffs. That’s currently 9 teams vying for the last 5 spots. Who will make it? Here’s how it is:
- Note that none of these are assuming fantasy points. More on that later.
- Cooney, Shoats, and Jets have all clinched a playoff birth. Also of note is that Cooney has clinched the number one seed.
- Monkeys, Philly, Charge, and Fumblers will be in the playoffs if they win, tie, or either one of the Cats or Girls loses or ties.
- Cats and Girls will be in if they win and the other loses their game. They could also get in if they win and a couple teams from the 8-5 bracket lose.
- Crushers, Dunedain, and Bonecrushers need to win, and they need both the Girls and Cats to lose.
- The eliminated tier remains the same: Juggernauts, Lightning, TSfR, Clan, ‘Canes, and Borg are all headed home.
The above is just basic. But looking at schedules and fantasy scores yields a whole different picture.
- Fantasy scores are now coming into play. I’ll set my “maximum possible difference attainable in one week” at 100 points, just to be safe.
- The 8-5 bracket is looking quite safe, even if they lose and both Cats and Girls win. Let’s face it, this week will really only be for deciding who gets what seed among these 4. The Cats have longshots at overtaking the Charge and Fumblers if it comes down to fantasy points. The Girls can’t remotely overtake anybody above them via points. Realistically, the Cats are cool no matter what if they win, and the Girls need to win and have the Cats lose to make the playoffs.
- In the 6-7 bracket, they need to win no matter what. But then they’ll need both of the 7-6 teams to lose. Finally, they’ll all need higher fantasy points than the 7-6 teams. While all three of the 6-7s have the ability to overtake the Girls in points, realistically, only the Crushers have a shot at surpassing the Cats in points. In fact, I’d be willing to bet money that neither Dunedain nor Bonecrushers will make the playoffs.
- Speaking of the 6-7s, Dunedain and Crushers face off. Granted, it’s essentially 5 teams fighting for the last spot, but I still find this match interesting. Not as interesting as it was last week, mind you.
- The Girls take on the Charge. If this game ties or the Charge win, all of the 8-5 teams are *officially* in the playoffs.
- Cats and Philly go at it this week as well. It’s the same sitch as the Girls/Charge game: game ties or Philly wins, all of the 8-5 teams officially have playoff spots.
- I’d also like to point out the Quest/Shoats game. We haven’t gotten a game this titanic in proportion since Week XIV last season, in which Philly (#1 at the time) and CB234 (#3) faced off. CB234 got the win, which interestingly enough pushed the Valleygirls (then at #2) into the #1 spot (CB234 took #2, and Philly dropped back to #3). Just a bit of history for you. Nothing that big at stake here this time around, but it should be an interesting game (and possible preview of the Kamen Bowl).
- We also have the Toilet Bowl taking place this week! Who will inhale audibly more: The Borg or the Hurricanes?
- Then there’s also the consolation game in the Toilet Tourney between TSfR and The Lightning. Not sure if the point to this one is to win or lose yet…
There you have it: the playoff picture in a nutshell. You’ll notice the key here is fantasy points. Some teams who could feasibly hit eighth based just on record have no chance of making the playoffs due to low fantasy scores. So all in all, we can prettymuch assume that the top 7 are all in, and the Cats, Girls, and Crushers are fighting for the last playoff spot. Would’ve been much easier had I said this to begin with, huh?
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Thou shalt becometh pinned in eliminations. - JesseK [more] 
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