Political Probabilities

[Jack Jones]

Greg,

For each question on the real-world Iraq test, there are going to be more than 2 or 4 possible answers. Among those possible answers, there will often be no correct answer. (Or even a good answer.)

You are so right! Didn’t I say the test was extremely hard?

HOPEFULLY, if John Kerry is elected, he won't simply RANDOMLY choose answers, but rather will use a measure of wisdom to select one of the better answers for each question, so his outcome in Iraq should be better than is hinted at by your scenario.

Of course! But my over-simplification of the problem was intended to show that his statement that he would do almost everything differently brings his wisdom into question. Your calculations show that, even if the bad guy’s disregard for the rule of law has turned it into a crapshoot, then it is a mathematical certainty that Kerry’s approach would fare no better. But it is not a crapshoot; and, the Bush & Co. wisdom/approval has by all estimates been at least 50%. What follows is that doing almost everything differently is preposterous and almost certain to fare worse.