Political Probabilities

[Jaine Perotti]

Originally Posted by Jack Jones

Now suppose that John also took the test and answered not just one, or a few, but every question differently than did George.

I don't think it is a fair assumption to make that George Bush and John Kerry would answer every question differently. They are not complete opposites in terms of their opinions of the war in Iraq. In other words, the two candidates' opinions are not truly black and white from eachother. Unless you know the exact percentage of opinions that the two candidates share, predicting how well they would do on this type of test is not statisically viable. Results based on the assumption that Bush and Kerry are polar opposites of each other couldn't possibly be accurate.