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Unread 10-12-2005, 18:16
EddieMcD EddieMcD is offline
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Pre-Week XIV Playoff Analysis

Code:
Rank  	   	Team  	        W-L-T  	Pct.  	Pts.  	Streak  Change
1.x 	Nor Cal Crushers 	11-2-0 	.846 	909 	W-3 	±0
2.x 	FIRSTforce 	        10-3-0 	.769 	793 	W-1 	±0
3.x 	Rhode Island Voltaic 	10-3-0 	.769 	764 	W-5 	±0
4.x 	Team THRUST 	        8-5-0 	.615 	756 	W-2 	+1
5.x 	The Tacoites 	        8-5-0 	.615 	648 	W-3 	+2
6.x 	Your Ad Here 	        8-5-0 	.615 	635 	L-1 	-2
7. 	Feisty Klowns 	        7-6-0 	.538 	752 	L-2 	-1
8. 	IwillCrushYou 	        6-6-1 	.500 	662 	W-3 	+4
9. 	Akshar Did It 	        6-6-1 	.500 	584 	W-1 	+4
10. 	hurricanes 	        6-6-1 	.500 	570 	W-4 	+4
11. 	Koko's X-Cats 	        5-6-2 	.462 	696 	L-3 	-2
12. 	west coast style 	6-7-0 	.462 	691 	L-2 	-4
13. 	Jc's Evil Empire 	6-7-0 	.462 	620 	L-1 	-3
14. 	Cooney Quest 	        6-7-0 	.462 	550 	L-3 	-3
15.z 	Stevies Scapegoats 	5-7-1 	.423 	643 	W-2 	+1
16.z 	sigmakittens 	        5-8-0 	.385 	672 	W-1 	+1
17.z 	Dunedain 	        5-8-0 	.385 	671 	L-2 	-2
18.z 	Coco's Monkeys 	        4-9-0 	.308 	516 	L-5 	±0
19.z 	Pelan's Bobcats 	3-10-0 	.231 	661 	L-1 	±0
20.z 	QC Elite 	        2-11-0 	.154 	532 	L-4 	±0
x=Clinched Playoff Birth
z=Mathematically Eliminated

Talk about a power shift in Week 14. With all the .500 teams losing, it muddled things up more than any other year going into the final week of the regular season. Six playoff spots are taken. Six teams are eliminated. The other eight are fighting over the last two spots. Here's how it is:
  • Nor Cal, Force, Rhode Island, Thrust, Tacoites, and YAH are all in the playoffs.
  • Klowns will clinch with a win.
  • IWCY, ADI, and Canes will outright clinch if they win and two of either Klowns, IWCY, ADI and Canes lose.
  • Currently, the X-Cats, WCS, Empire, and Quest are on the outside looking in. That means a loss eliminates them. They'll have to win and hope that the the three 6-6-1 teams all lose, or two of them lose as well as the Klowns losing.
  • Goats are out due to the Canes/WCS game making it impossible to finish better than ninth.
  • Kittens, Dunedain, Monkeys, Bobcats, and Elite are all out as well.

We'll now bring the schedule and fantasy scores into play. I highly doubt anybody's going to make up more than 75 fantasy points against another, and 100 is out of the question.
  • With that being said, with their low fantasy score, I can all but count Cooney out of the picture. The only way they can possibly clinch is if they win, IWCY, ADI, X-Cats, and Empire all lose, the Canes/WCS game ties, and they make up a 20 point difference on the Canes. It can happen, but I don't like the odds.
  • On the flip side of that, IWCY has a high enough fantasy score, that if they win, they're going to clinch a spot.
  • The Canes/WCS game will eliminate the loser. The winner has a good shot at, but is still not guaranteed a spot.
  • Let's face it: the only teams below the Klowns that can even hope to overtake them in fantasy points are WCS and the X-Cats. This means that even if they lose, if two of the 6-6-1 teams lose, they'll most likely be in.
  • For the X-Cats, WCS, and Empire, their best bet is if the three 6-6-1 teams all lose. Then, it'll come down to a fantasy point battle between any of them who manage to win for the last playoff spot.
  • All in all, with the exception of the Klowns, the WCS/Canes game makes it so that a loss among any of the teams fighting for the last two spots eliminates them.
  • I'm just going to hand the #1 seed battle to Nor Cal. Rhode Island and Force are both over 100 points behind them, so even if Nor Cal loses, barring a 200 pointer from someone, they'll be in the number one spot come playoff time. However, the two spot can be claimed by either Rhode Island or Force (not that it really means anything ).
I'm sure the eight teams in playoff limbo will be watching their scoreboards very closely tomorrow. Good luck to you all. I'll be back earlier next week for the Week XIV postgame, as well as second half analysis and awards.

Last edited by EddieMcD : 10-12-2005 at 18:27.
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