US Engineers Undercounted

[Jessica Boucher]

Though not directly FIRST-related, it is something we've heard in speeches in the past few years.

Researchers at Duke University found that about 225,925 engineers graduate from American universities annually, about three times the number—70,000—typically cited by the National Academies and the media. The academies include the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, the Institute of Medicine, and the National Research Council.

India, which has become a growing tech center, particularly for outsourcing many operations of U.S. firms, produces about 215,000 engineers a year, the study found. That’s far fewer than the 350,000 figure frequently cited by the press and the National Academies.

China mints about 644,106 engineering graduates, the study reported, using figures from the Chinese government. Although the figure is in line with recent reports, Duke researcher Vivek Wadhwa believes those numbers may be overstated.

Mr. Wadhwa said China does not specify whether the figure represents only graduates from four-year degree programs and does not provide a way to corroborate its figures. He added that he believes the number of annual engineering graduates in the Middle Kingdom is closer to 300,000.

The whole article is here: http://www.redherring.com/Article.as...Undercount ed

[John Neun]

Nice find, Jessica! I have never really finished the thought, but every time I hear the 70k number, I start thinking, "Hey, wait a minute. If my alma mater graduates 500 or 1000/year, there are only 70 to 140 schools in the US of like size?" It just never seemed to add up. Thanks!

[ChuckDickerson]

Very interesting article. Thank you for posting it Jessica. I have read it and also the full paper and appendix. For anyone interested you my find the published study here: http://memp.pratt.duke.edu/outsourcing/

Having read this paper and looked at some of the data in it I feel that the paper misses a very important point as do most of the other articles and published studies I have seen on the subject. Whether you look at the raw numbers of graduates in the U.S. vs India and China or the population normalized values this study presents these studies all make the assumption that the graduates from U.S. institutions contribute to the U.S. work force and the graduates of India's institutions contribute to the Indian workforce and the same goes for China. I am not so sure this is a valid assumption. How many U.S. citizens per year go to India or China and seek out an engineering, CS, or IT degree and then return to the U.S. to work for a U.S. company? Not having ever been to India or China myself and not having ever seen any statistics on this I don't know for sure but I suspect not many. On the other hand, look at the number of foreign nationals that you see at American universities campuses. I would suspect that a large percentage of the graduates from U.S. institutions getting 4 year degrees in engineering, CS, & IT do not, in fact, remain in the U.S. and contribute to the U.S. workforce. Even when I was in school (way back) we had a very significant percentage on foreign nationals in my classes. In discussions with them most were studying in the U.S. because our schools were better and because their tuition was paid by either their government or a company in their country with the understanding that they would return to work there. This troubled me even then but more so now. The numbers in these studies do not alarm me nearly as much as my observations as to the number of student the U.S. is graduating but exporting. This may simply be my perception but I have not seen any statistics on the subject. I would like to see a follow up study to the Duke research that accounts for these percentages.

Also, something interesting I noted in the appendix, under USA Data, page 1 of 4 (3rd page of the PDF), under the field of study "Computer..." the U.S. apparently graduated 0 (zip, nada, not one) person under the "Artificial intellegence and robotics" heading. Is something wrong with the data or is FIRST failing somewhere? I really can't believe 0.

[Michael Sperber]

I would be interested in seeing is how many of those "225,925" recent engineering graduates actually enter industry as engineers? How many go off to study for advanced degrees?

There could be 225,925 new engineering graduates, but only 70,000 entering the engineering field. The remaining could be entering other professions.

Either way, this is an interesting fact.

Great find, Jessica.

-mike

[Elite101]

Mike brings up a good point, but further more more and more engineers are going for their masters because the industries almost require it. most schools i have visited for engineering have stressed the importance of taking advantage of their 5-year masters program because of the numbers already going into it, as well as the better jobs/better money. some engineers also can become engineering teachers, and i can say for myself, I would not be here if not for my engineering teachers.

that number does seem a bit low though, regardless of where people go and what people do post-undergrad...

[Doug G]

You can mine some of the data yourself by looking it up at

http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d...s/dt04_283.asp

They have collected a lot of the data, I cannot specify how they did the collection though - some day I'll be bored enough to read through all their info. But using their info, it was about 59,000 in 2003. I know I've spouted off those numbers that FIRST (Dean, et al) gives us but I felt the NCES.ed.gov backed them up enough. Hmmm??

[Al Skierkiewicz]

It would be interesting to research how many of the engineering jobs in the US are now going offshore. It would be also very interesting to see how US schools recruit for graduate programs. My son recently graduated Bradley University in Mechanical Eng. At graduation every one of the Master's ME graduates was a foreign national.

[Doug G]

Originally Posted by Al Skierkiewicz

It would be interesting to research how many of the engineering jobs in the US are now going offshore. It would be also very interesting to see how US schools recruit for graduate programs. My son recently graduated Bradley University in Mechanical Eng. At graduation every one of the Master's ME graduates was a foreign national.

Back in October, PBS aired a special called "1-800-India", and at the end they interviewed Clyde Prestowitz, author of "Three Billion New Capitalists: The great Shift of Power and Wealth to the East" and he spouted some facts like 80% of Fortune 500 companies outsource their labor overseas and over half of the students graduating from the top ten US universities (Math,Science,Tech) are from abroad. That would sure skew the data a bit.

While I haven't read his book yet (it sounds like a depressing read) you can read some interviews with him at..

http://www.cceia.org/viewMedia.php/p...D/8/prmID/5170

or

http://globetrotter.berkeley.edu/peo...witz-con0.html

[Adam Y.]

Also, something interesting I noted in the appendix, under USA Data, page 1 of 4 (3rd page of the PDF), under the field of study "Computer..." the U.S. apparently graduated 0 (zip, nada, not one) person under the "Artificial intellegence and robotics" heading. Is something wrong with the data or is FIRST failing somewhere? I really can't believe 0.

It's probably because it's such a weird degree to obtain that it is hard to track the information on it.

They have collected a lot of the data, I cannot specify how they did the collection though - some day I'll be bored enough to read through all their info. But using their info, it was about 59,000 in 2003. I know I've spouted off those numbers that FIRST (Dean, et al) gives us but I felt the NCES.ed.gov backed them up enough. Hmmm??

Depends on what you count as an engineer..... Counting people who graduate with an engineering technology degree probably does bump the number up. (I still have no idea what they do)

[nehalita]

My dad sent me an article on the 15th that touched almost the same topic: http://www.businessweek.com/smallbiz...212_623922.htm.

Although this is not entirely related, I posted this thread up a while ago:
http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...25&postcount=1
http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...2&postcount=13
...I guess the two articles here would represent skewed statistics?