A statistical analysis of the "autonomous advantadge"

[Greg Marra]

Update:

I have created sheets so that anyone attending a Regional can help collect data. Simply watch the match, and write down the information the sheet asks for. Don't feel obligated to do every single match. If you are only able to do a handful, it is better than nothing. I just ask that you don't record practice matches, since they are often played very differently than real matches.

Here is a nice printable version of the sheet. There are twenty rows per sheet, so you will probably need about 4 or 5 to completely cover a regional. If you really want a .xls version, PM me and I'll send it to you.

Once you have filled out a sheet either scan it, take a digital photo of it, or type it back into a spreadsheet. Then e-mail it to: aim.high.autonomous [at] gmail [dot] com. I'll take everyone's data, compile it, make it available, and then run some statistics on it.

[/update]

Today, while observing the competition at BAE, there was something odd occurring. In the elimination matches, whoever won autonomous won the round. Every time. Fourteen of fourteen times (excluding the ties). This seems to be telling.

However, how can we tell if it is winning autonomous that is actually the root of causation here? There are many other variables. If a team has a working autonomous mode, maybe they just have a better team and a better robot. If a team wins autonomous, is it the ten point bonus plus the points they score that gives them the game? Is it possible that going on defence first is such a large advantage that the other alliance cannot come back to reverse the tide?

This is an interesting question that deserves study. However, you can not study a question without data. Here is my call:

Either by analyzing Week 1 video or by collecting information at Week 2, we can carefully determine what is the deciding factor here.

The information of interest are: What are the scores following the end of autonomous (including the 10 point bonus)? Which alliance went on offence first? What are the scores at the end of the match (and how many came from ramping and penalties)? Was this match a qualifier, or an elimination match?

This will let us carefully separate out to see exactly what the underlying cause is. If it is a point differential, we can compare the lead at the end of auto to the lead at the end of the match. If it is going on defense first, then analyzing matches where autonomous was tied and defense is randomly selected, we will be able to deduce this.

Is anyone else interested in helping me collect data to analyze this? I think the answer might be interesting, and could help everyone gain a better understanding of the game.