A statistical analysis of the "autonomous advantadge"

[soap108]

Originally Posted by Joel J.

Alright.. I have only observations to go on. You can all collect the data, together, and we can compare sometime later.

I'm saying this after watching VCU.

- With the amount of points I saw being scored, the 10 point bonus gained from winning autonomous is significant. That is, if winning alliances are averaging 30 points (very realistic number, IMO), then that 10 point bonus accounts for 1/3rd of their score!

30 was a magic number of sorts.

Judging by penalized scores...
30 pts would have won 54 of 59 (92%) matches on Friday at VCU;
and would have won 73 of 86 (85%) both days.

The highest losing scores were 46, 44, and 43.

KA-108

[Martinez]

Definately have to agree with everything Joel said. Its very difficult to say wether winning the match due autonomus mode is due to being a strong team, being on defense first or the 10 point bonus. I feel its a mix of all three, but there is definately a strong coelation. I kept track of stats of the semis at VCU and here is what I saw.

Matches in the semi both went to 3 while the finals went to 2. 5 out of 8 matches, the team that won auto also won the match. Of the other three, the winning auto team "lost" with one being a tie, one being a DQ, and one for the 10 point bonus on the ramp.

About the game, scores were rather low compaired to past years. I did not compute an average, but it would likely be around 30 with 50 being the high end and 70 being amazing. Most teams seemed to ether miss all their shots (in auto as well), hit a few while being marked, or scoring many quickly. Often the announcer went: Score.. score.. score, score. I would like to say that was very very helpful cause the camera was not always in a good angle to see what was happening.

edit: also, most teams missed the majority of their shots in automode. Teams take note... 1 point can often make all the difference wether it was 2 to 3 or 10 to 12!

There was very little scoring in the low corner goals, outside of auto. At VCU at least, a strong focus was on shooting and "jocking for position." Several times the corners were not well guarded, and I think a quick dump would have proved better both in terms of score and time off the clock.

[Heretic121]

Originally Posted by soap108

30 was a magic number of sorts.

Judging by penalized scores...
30 pts would have won 54 of 59 (92%) matches on Friday at VCU;
and would have won 73 of 86 (85%) both days.

The highest losing scores were 46, 44, and 43.

KA-108

Jersey was a diffrent story at least in the elims... teams had losing scores of 60+... i belive even one was 78-71... so we shall see in the coming weeks how things shape up...

[Greg Marra]

I have created sheets so that anyone attending a Regional can help collect data. Simply watch the match, and write down the information the sheet asks for. Don't feel obligated to do every single match. If you are only able to do a handful, it is better than nothing. I just ask that you don't record practice matches, since they are often played very differently than real matches.

Here is a nice printable version of the sheet. There are twenty rows per sheet, so you will probably need about 4 or 5 to completely cover a regional. If you really want a .xls version, PM me and I'll send it to you.

Once you have filled out a sheet either scan it, take a digital photo of it, or type it back into a spreadsheet. Then e-mail it to: aim.high.autonomous [at] gmail [dot] com. I'll take everyone's data, compile it, make it available, and then run some statistics on it.

It should be interesting to see what we find out!

[Greg Marra]

Ok, everyone. There's two days until Week 2 kicks off, so here's everything I've got so far:

An electronic (XLS) version of the spreadsheet
A printable (HTML) version of the spreadsheet

Take some of them to your Week 2 event on Friday and Saturday and start recording how matches go. It's OK if you don't get every single match, even a little bit of data will help build an overall information set we can use. If your team has some extra kids sitting around just watching, this could be the perfect job .

After you fill it out, scan it or photograph it or type it in, and send it to aim.high.autonomous [at] gmail [dot] com. I'll compile a master list that I will post here, and then we can all analyze the heck out of it.