Top 5 Bots per Division-Einstein Predictions

[Tom Bottiglieri]

Originally Posted by nuggetsyl

i think 233 and 217 combo scares me the most. i hope that pair gets broken up during picking.

shaun

Don't forget about 296. I think their shooting capabilities are a little more robust than 217, but 217 has the ability to hold more balls. Either way, an combination of any of those 3 would be scary.

[Corey Balint]

I'll finally share my thoughts, however there is no way I will post anything about the teams on Newton.

Galileo: 494, 384, 177, 1126, 1276.
Watchout for 365, 341, and 118 though.

Curie: 469, 121, 1114, 358, 1024.
Watchout for 70, 175, and 293 though.

Archimedes: 233, 343, 217, 888, and 375.
Watchout for 330, 486, 296, and 33 though.

There will be a dogfight for the top of Galileo. I expect 118 to seed first, and select 494. However, be afraid of a 1126 and 177/384/365/1276 combo. Finals of Gali will be very intense.
Alliance of he-double hockey sticks: 494, 1126, X

I feel Curie elims will be taken 6-0 by one alliance. I'm gonna put my money on whatever alliance 469 is in. Expect finals to have three of the teams mentioned in it, with one losing.
Alliance of he-double hockey sticks: 469, 121, X

Archimedes. Not sure what to say here. Everyones dream alliance of 217 and 233...not happening. Expect an underdog like 486 to sneak up and take the 1 seed and select 233. If that does happen, 233 will most likely be knocked out in the Semis to an alliance of two powerhouses. If 888 gets paired with 233, and goes unnoticed during matches though, it is over, and they will take Archi, with great ease.
Alliance of he-double hockey sticks: 233, 888, X

[Tom Bottiglieri]

Originally Posted by Joel J.

I did something similar.. I'll share my top 5, from the statistic-based list:

G: 1126, 1625, 86, 341, 384
A: 233, 296, 217, 375, 1610
C: 1114, 469, 358, 451, 1024
N: 25, 987, 1503, 111, 968

Those are pretty similar lists, for two (possibly) unlike systems!

Yeah, I agree. My system only used data from qualification rounds, and only looks at your score vs. the average score across the event for you alliance partners. This helps show who was scoring big in a match even when they weren't paired with the best teams out there. This is probably why 229 was able to sneak past 254 and 968. GTR and FLR had a huge variety in abilities of teams while the Cali regionals seemed to be a little tighter.

[Tom Bottiglieri]

Originally Posted by Corey Balint

I feel Curie elims will be taken 6-0 by one alliance. I'm gonna put my money on whatever alliance 469 is in.

I find your lack of faith in 1114 disturbing.

..Very disturbing.

[Corey Balint]

Originally Posted by Tom Bottiglieri

I find your lack of faith in 1114 disturbing.

..Very disturbing.

I love 1114, however with the huge target they now have on their back...like many other teams, it will be much harder for them to preform. I never said that 469 would not be with 1114 though. Tom, you should know i keep my ideas vague. And i didnt say dont expect them in the finals...

[JJG13]

The problem with predicting is that no one has seen all the robots in action and robots improve as time progresses. Nevertheless, here are my predictions (mostly based on my observations at the Florida and Palmetto Regionals followed by what videos I've seen):

Archimedes - The 233 alliance wins. They are likely to be the first seed but if they are not, the first seed will pick them. I exect 1902 to be the highest ranked dumper bot.

Curie - Don't expect 1114 to be the top seed I know they will do very well but because there are several other very good offensive robots in Curie and everyone will know to play desperate defense against them, I think they will probably not be able to attain the record required to reach first seed. Also, 1114 will not pick 1680 if they are leading an alliance. I do not know who will win Curie (too close to call) but I will go out on a limb and say if an alliance led by top notch team (in my opionion: 1114, 469, 175, 70, or any team that ranks as high or higher) manages to grab 710 as a second pick, that alliance will win Curie. I have a lot of respect for 710 this year as a defensive bot and think that they can shut down a number of good shooters.

Galileo - I think the 365 alliance wins Galileo. This prediction is based entirely on one picture I saw of their robot - it looks a winner. The only really good robot in Galileo I am familiar with is 86. Even though they are an amazing shooter I predict they will be knocked out in either the quarter or semi-finals because they are too easily pushed around (or tipped) by opposing robots.

Newton - Just as I predicted 1114 would not be the first seed in Curie, I don't think 25 will be the first seed for similiar reasons. Newton has even more great offensive robots than Curie and I think other teams will take advantage of the fact that 25 is a low shooter. Just as I said 1114 would not pick 1680, 254 will not pick 968. Team 11 will be the big suprise at Newton. At the Palmetto Regional they started sinking 10 balls in autonomous during eliminations. Expect them to be in the top eight. My prediction for 71 is similiar my prediction for 86 in Galileo. Even though they are a great shooter, they are too easily pushed around. Plus Newton is so tough I wouldn't be suprised if they didn't make the top eight after qualifying rounds. 322 will the top ranked dumper in this division. I don't know who will win Newton I think the winning alliance will have a robot with a high-shooter(exception: 25), camera-aimed turret allied with a top of the ramp shooter. That is 25, 11, or 987 (edit: or 111 how could I forget) with 254 or 968.

I don't know which division plays which in eliminations so I'll give who I think will win in each possible matchup. I think Galileo will be beaten by any of the other three divisions. Newton or Curie can beat Archimedes. I do not know ho would win in a Curie-Newton matchup. Newton has more top notch robots (but only two will be in an alliance) but Curie has much better second round robots in my opinion. However, If there is any obvious "under-dog upset" in Curie, that alliance will lose to Newton.

[Sean.Conway]

Originally Posted by JJG13

The problem with predicting is that no one has seen all the robots in action and robots improve as time progresses. Nevertheless, here are my predictions (mostly based on my observations at the Florida and Palmetto Regionals followed by what videos I've seen):


Newton - Just as I predicted 1114 would not be the first seed in Curie, I don't think 25 will be the first seed for similiar reasons. Newton has even more great offensive robots than Curie and I think other teams will take advantage of the fact that 25 is a low shooter. Just as I said 1114 would not pick 1680, 254 will not pick 968. Team 11 will be the big suprise at Newton. At the Palmetto Regional they started sinking 10 balls in autonomous during eliminations. Expect them to be in the top eight. My prediction for 71 is similiar my prediction for 86 in Galileo. Even though they are a great shooter, they are too easily pushed around. Plus Newton is so tough I wouldn't be suprised if they didn't make the top eight after qualifying rounds. 322 will the top ranked dumper in this division. I don't know who will win Newton I think the winning alliance will have a robot with a high-shooter(exception: 25), camera-aimed turret allied with a top of the ramp shooter. That is 25, 11, or 987 with 254 or 968.

I agree with that^, Alot of the known teams that have done very well, 25 obviously, wildstang, Mort(team 11, they have a great history and strong bot, I have seen them do the above mentioned), and 254, 968. Since most people know those bots and have seen them, the other teams are going to lockdown hard on them. W/o a doubt. Now, saying that, that makes Autonomous even more important in my book. But even good strategy can beat skill, we've all seen it. Alot of the "better" teams have great scouting, ect. So we know tere are powerhouse robots, but it will come down to there partners working together as team, Instead of us all saying, "Wow! there really good, they can definitly win", sure they can win, but the game isnt 3vs1, its 3v3. What groups of robots compliment there weaknesses and strengths as a team? when I was at the Vegas regional, after one of our matches, a team came up to us and said, "Wow we studied your robot for an hour!, and you still beat us!" and i'm thinking whats wrong with that? Mayby if you studied the alliance for an hour it would of probably been a differnt story i think. My predictions for the top teams and other mumbo jumbo, I dont want to say anything about Newton other than what I've said. But think about it!

[Lil' Lavery]

"233 will win Archimedes" this and "233/217 wins Archimedes" that, bleh
Even though I said it too originally, I did change it. 233 and 343 have VERY similar, and brutally effective machines. Both had 1 regional championship, and lost in the semi-finals at their other.
343 pictures:
http://www.invisiblerobot.com/roboti.../p1170712.html
http://www.invisiblerobot.com/roboti.../p1170891.html

233 pictures:
http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...ad.php?t=45140

Both are hard to displace once in scoring position (a few feet in front of the ramp). 233 can hold more balls, but 343's ground loading is a tad quicker. Both can get on the ramp, both have working cameras, both have turrents, both have outstanding auto modes, etc.

217 and one of these pair would do outstandingly, but only if one of the 3 makes it into the top 3 or 4 seeds, otherwise it won't happen. "Fluking" into top seeds happens almost entirely by having an auto code that can consistantly perform (thus why the "10 point corner dump" had pushed so many herders into the upper ranking at regionals). Luckily for these teams, they all have amazing autonomous modes, so one of them being in the top few seeds isn't entirely out of the question.
Lacking that, if 1610 unites with 343 to reform 2/3 of the VCU champion alliance (or 233) it could be very very scary (1610 is one of the best parimeter shoters this year, imho). 330, 20, and 33 will all be very serious forces to be reckoned with on Archimedes as well.

[Koko Ed]

It's obvious what are the "best" robots on the field but there are many variables that could derail their path to Einstien. Mainly if they are saddled with lesser partners that they are forced to carry and are against stronger allaince and they end up in the middle of the pack. Plus some team no one is talking about will be top seed in one of the divisions an dwill blow up everybodys plans for thier Einstien appointment by picking that team that everybody expects to dominate.
As Chris Berman says : That's why they play the game!

[JoeCallahan]

This can't be very accurate, people probably don't know 80% of the teams in their division

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by JoeCallahan

This can't be very accurate, people probably don't know 80% of the teams in their division

Some people undertake massive scouting efforts pre-championship to find out as much about every team in their division as possible. If you look at the various division discussions, there are people trying to catalog pictures of every team in their division. If you look at the scouting forum you will find multiple spreadsheets and applications with statistical information, etc.
Will these be accurate? Not likely. We have yet to find out the individual schedules of the teams involved, who has what break, who adds something new, gets a new code working, gets favorable or unfavorable calls by the refs etc.

[Tom Bottiglieri]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

Will these be accurate? Not likely. We have yet to find out the individual schedules of the teams involved, who has what break, who adds something new, gets a new code working, gets bad favorable or unfavorable calls by the refs etc.

Every team gets bad alliance partners.
Every team has a bit more practice.
Every team has SOME technical difficulty.
Every team gets hit by a bad call.
This happens at every regional, every championship event, and every offseason.

We use statistics to try and factor these things out. I dont want to look at 85 paragraphs for each team in the division when I'm down in the pits trying to run strategies. I want to look at a concise page with the vital information I need to assemble a winning strategy. This is what seperates good teams from great teams. For example, look at the triplets. All of the teams have the exact same robot, but 1114 has gone above and beyond in their scouting, strategizing, and utlization of driver practice time. All of these efforts are more than apparent on the field.

So, I must agree to disagree on your point. With the short nature of these events, I am willing to take any steps I can to alleviate the stress and pressure of preparing for matches. The easiest and most effective way to do this for the Championship event is pre-competition scouting, with statistics.

Nothing beats it. Hands down. Period. The End. Nothing's better.

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by Tom Bottiglieri

Every team gets bad alliance partners.
Every team has a bit more practice.
Every team has SOME technical difficulty.
Every team gets hit by a bad call.
This happens at every regional, every championship event, and every offseason.

We use statistics to try and factor these things out. I dont want to look at 85 paragraphs for each team in the division when I'm down in the pits trying to run strategies. I want to look at a concise page with the vital information I need to assemble a winning strategy. This is what seperates good teams from great teams. For example, look at the triplets. All of the teams have the exact same robot, but 1114 has gone above and beyond in their scouting, strategizing, and utlization of driver practice time. All of these efforts are more than apparent on the field.

So, I must agree to disagree on your point. With the short nature of these events, I am willing to take any steps I can to alleviate the stress and pressure of preparing for matches. The easiest and most effective way to do this for the Championship event is pre-competition scouting, with statistics.

Nothing beats it. Hands down. Period. The End. Nothing's better.

I shall respond to this two fold.
First, a post earlier in this thread.

Originally Posted by OZ_341

I know that this thread is meant to be for fun and is an interesting mental exercise but make sure that you keep an open mind when scouting. There is a danger in having too many preconceived notions about the teams in your division.

In 2003 we had an excellent scouting crew. We seeded 4th and picked the 17th and 65th seeded teams based on their capabilities, track record, and complementary machine features. Everyone laughed at our picks and We ended up winning Galileo.

Sure we had a great machine, but we had even better scouting!!

Have fun with this thread, but choose carefully in Atlanta!!

Good luck to everyone next week!!

Yes, I realise that EVERY team gets hurt and helped at some point during the Championship event, but it isn't entirely equal. Last year 233 was near the top of virtually everyone's pre-Championship lists, topped out multiple power ranking, statistical charts, etc. Where did they finish? Semi-finals on Archimedes, and they were ranked somewhere in the 40s or 50s after qualification. These are a HUGE benefit no doubt, but it is highly unlikely that any of our predictions and scouting rankings will be very accurate at all when all is said and done.

[JJG13]

Of course our predictions aren't guaranteed. As I mentioned in my post, some teams slip under the radar and others dramatically improve at a competition. However, we can still make educated guesses about competition results. Though it is possible that a robot that is a box-on-wheels can become first seed in a division and go all the way to win on Einstein, it is not probable.

As for 233 in Archimedes, they are in my view, easily the best robot in the division. If you don't believe me, watch the matches from their last regional (Boston) and compare it to the other robots in the division. Yes 343 is good(I saw them at the Palmetto Regional), but they have not performed at the same level as 233 has.

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by JJG13

Of course our predictions aren't guaranteed. As I mentioned in my post, some teams slip under the radar and others dramatically improve at a competition. However, we can still make educated guesses about competition results. Though it is possible that a robot that is a box-on-wheels can become first seed in a division and go all the way to win on Einstein, it is not probable.

I fully agree with that statement. What I did not agree with was

Originally Posted by Tom Bottiglieri

Nothing beats it. Hands down. Period. The End. Nothing's better.

Also, I'd have to agree that 233 is slightly better than 343, but it is by a very slim margin. Either way, I'll shut up for now and let the results speak for themselves.