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#17
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Re: There is still a vast amount of work to be done...
I can go get the actual details on this if you'd all like, but the situation is less dire than it appears on the surface.
1. In terms of deaths per exposure/hour, travelling by auto is much less dangerous than a lot of other activities such as bicycling, skiing, boating, riding horses, rock climbing, etc. It's a lot safer than smoking cigarettes (over 400,000 deaths per year). 2. About 40% of traffic deaths are due to alcohol (about 17,000 a year). 3. About 60% of people killed in traffic accidents are not wearing seatbelts. 4. The rate of traffic deaths has been dropping as long as there have been motor vehicles. 5. The strongest correlation between the drop in deaths per mile and factors is between the number of miles driven on divided highways and deaths. The second strongest has been in the growing use of seatbelts. The best way of reducing traffic deaths per mile has been in seat belt use and the number of miles of divided highways. Interestingly, seatbelt use in the US is lowest in the Northeast, and highest in the west and south. Maybe those good old boys aren't so dumb, after all, huh? 6. There has been no correlation between reduction in traffic deaths and the number of cars equipped with ABS or traction control systems. The NHTSA is studying this, but their Website says that current results are unclear, but might show some benefit. 7. The last time I read anything credible on the subject, there was a moderate (~10%?) reduction in traffic deaths due to use of air bags in vehicles and reduction in traffic deaths. 8. Since the NHTSA started collecting data in 1966, the number of traffic fatalities per 100 million miles travelled has dropped from 5.50 to 1.45. The number of miles driven has tripled, and the raw number of fatalities has dropped from 51,000 to 43,000. At an average speed of (and I'm making this up), 30 miles an hour, this is one fatality per 3.3 million hours of exposure. I haven't looked into this in any serious way in a few years, so I would welcome anyone who could update any of these points. Here is a trends summary from the 2005 NHTSA traffic report http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/pdf/nrd...nn/TSF2005.pdf: The tables in this chapter present statistics about police-reported motor vehicle crashes over time. Trends for fatal crashes and fatalities generally are presented from 1975 (when FARS began operation) to 2005; however, tables with alcohol data from FARS show data only for the years these data are available—1982 to 2005. Trends for nonfatal crashes and injured are presented from 1988 (when GES began operation) to 2005. Care should be taken when comparing nonfatal crash and injury statistics from one year to the next. Since the statistics derived fromGESdata are estimates, year-to-year differences may be the result of the sampling process, not the result of an actual trend. The variability or sampling errors associated with the estimates must be considered when making any year-to-year comparisons using GES data. (For more information on sampling error, see Appendix C.) Below are some of the statistics you will find in this chapter: Fatal crashes increased by 1.9 percent from 2004 to 2005, and the fatality rate rose to 1.45 fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles of travel in 2005. The injury rate per 100 million vehicle miles of travel decreased by 4.3 percent from 2004 to 2005. The occupant fatality rate (including motorcycle riders) per 100,000 population, which declined by 22.7 percent from 1975 to 1992, decreased by 1.6 percent from 1992 to 2005. The occupant injury rate (including motorcycle riders) per 100,000 population, which declined by 13.6 percent from 1988 to 1992, decreased by 23.6 percent from 1992 to 2005. The nonoccupant fatality rate per 100,000 population has declined by 50.6 percent from 1975 to 2005. The nonoccupant injury rate per 100,000 population has declined by 49.4 percent from 1988 to 2005. The percent of alcohol-related fatalities has declined from 60 percent in 1982 to 39 percent in 2005. |
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