Predictions Week 5: Last Stop Before the Big Show... ...Part 2

[Andy Baker]

Originally Posted by IndySam

and in the first match so did 1444 and it was 2 on 2.

It was two great alliances out there. Either side “could have” won. But to say that they “would have” or “should have” won if it wasn’t for the problems with 217 is disrespectful to 1444/45/829.

Don't sweat it, Scott. Those who were at St. Louis saw who the winners were, and how the final matches unfolded. Tom wasn't there. This sort of stuff makes us practice that much harder, and get more prepared for Atlanta. We've got some improvements and suprises for the trip down south.

Your ramp, robot, and drivers are solid and if any team picks you as their ramper in the finals, they will be happy.

Andy B.

[Joe Johnson]

Originally Posted by Andy Baker

Don't sweat it, Scott. Those who were at St. Louis saw who the winners were, and how the final matches unfolded. Tom wasn't there. This sort of stuff makes us practice that much harder, and get more prepared for Atlanta. We've got some improvements and suprises for the trip down south.

Your ramp, robot, and drivers are solid and if any team picks you as their ramper in the finals, they will be happy.

Andy B.

Listen folks, calm down really. This is about telling entertaining stories. If the rolls were reversed, I may very well be building up your teams. Yes, there is an implied insult if you dig down deep and are looking for a slight, but it is not the focus of any of this.

Is it an insult to the others to say that UNC could have (should have?) been in the Final 4? I suppose in some round about way, but seriously, every time UNC is in the news next year, they are going to say how they could have (should have?) been been in the 2007 Final Four. Should G-town fans write angry letters to the editor every time this happens? I don't think so. Georgetown has got the Trophy. All UNC's got is a bunch of What ifs and some sports writers trying to sell papers by spinning interesting stories about what might have been.

No insult intended. Really.

Joe J.

[Richard Wallace]

My grandfather used to say, "If a rabbit had a hip pocket he'd carry a gun to keep the dogs off." Grandparents the world over have given similar counsel to young'uns fretting over what "should have" happened but didn't.

I was really close to the field during the finals at St. Louis. The winning alliance earned that win -- no "should have" about it. I also think two top-flight tubers like 148 and 217 might have fared better if both had stayed in peak working condition throughout the finals.

What I really want to see is three top-flight tubers, with quick grabbers and superior drivetrains, on Einstein, hanging 'em high and quick, and putting the match out of bonus-reach. That would be cool.

[IndySam]

Originally Posted by Andy Baker

Don't sweat it, Scott. Those who were at St. Louis saw who the winners were, and how the final matches unfolded. Tom wasn't there. This sort of stuff makes us practice that much harder, and get more prepared for Atlanta. We've got some improvements and suprises for the trip down south.

Your ramp, robot, and drivers are solid and if any team picks you as their ramper in the finals, they will be happy.

Andy B.

We have some surprises up our sleeves too and now even more practiced drivers. This time we want to be the picker instead of the picky!

If we get together again at Atlanta, lookout world.




Oh and as for predictions, 148 on their home court could be unstoppable. Book it.

[Joe Johnson]

I am just checking up on some of my teams and I noticed that Team #108 in LV is one I said was "108 was one of the most underrated 'bots at FL"

Well, they are 0-7 in LV. What gives? 2 losses to Pink 2 losses to Poofs THAT is what happened.

FIRST's seed match generator is a travesty. If I were a veteran team, I would seriously consider adding a new sponsor or two and pulling a new number next year when I registered with FIRST.

Looking at Long Island now... ...I tipped 229 & 234 - as of right now (Friday night) 229 is #1 Seed with 8-0. #2 Seed is 234 -- with 1 loss... ..to 229.

No results posted from Texas. Grrr..

Philly: There is a lot to wade through but among others I tipped 272, 103,84 & 571. They are seeded 2nd, 3rd, 4th, & 5th respectively. #103 has only 1 loss and it was in their first match against #571 - they lost 8-6 Close.

Joe J.

[Kevin Sevcik]

Joe,

Texas is a long story. I don't have the exact rankings, but 148, 364, and 118 are doing very well and look to pick. 1 is doing moderately well. 1772 is doing very well and is currently ranked 8. 57 is working perfectly and darn near the bottom of the rankings. As you said, the matching algorithm is a travesty. 57 is a straight ramp bot with strong defense, and that just doesn't work well when the vast majority of your partners are inexperienced drivers or have robots that are mechanically highly unlikely to ever make it up a ramp. Look for 57 to be a strong 2nd pick by the lowest ranked smart alliance in the elims.

[The Lucas]

Originally Posted by Joe Johnson

Philly: There is a lot to wade through but among others I tipped 272, 103,84 & 571. They are seeded 2nd, 3rd, 4th, & 5th respectively. #103 has only 1 loss and it was in their first match against #571 - they lost 8-6 Close.

Joe J.

At the end of Friday inPhilly most of the teams you tipped are in picking position including
#1 1712
#2 272
#3 103
#4 84
#5 571
#8 365

Rather amazing!

Teams not in picking position you tipped are
#13 357
#24 316
#29 222

Not bad either, especially considering the scheduler has all these teams in the A pool and there are already 3 A teams (Opponents) in the top 8.

If this success continues Dr Joe and his anonymous informers deserve major props. Most teams have 3 matches today and matches have been real close (high parity between robots) so a lot could change. Joe's bots could end up representing 4 or more alliance captains, so chances of an eventual champion are high. Great job on these and all the prediction threads. I love the in depth analysis of each regional; best trend on Delphi in a while.

[Joe Johnson]

Just looking at Long Island. #229 is 10-0 #1 seed, no surprise there. #234 has 2 losses BOTH to #229 and are sitting in #3. FIRST silliness with the seeding is to blame here.

Not taking anything away from #1203, but they never played against #870 or #229, they played with #229 & #234 and their 1 match against #234 they lost in a landslide.

I would rather that FIRST just stopped calling them seeding matches. They can hire a Handicapper General to design the game and write the rules and be done with it.

Joe J.

[Pavan Dave]

2158 at Lone Star will win Rookie all star. Call it just a feeling, but I know the founding mentor from that team, and he's got as good a feel about this stuff as anyone. And the video they posted of their scorer was sweet.

They were a STRONG team except they got stuck with either BAD alliance partners or GOOD opponents. Unfortunately it seemed that when people were picking alliance partners, some of the teams were not prepared and went off of the chart. If anyone did their scouting homework and saw these TIN CANs teach the rack a thing or two* they would have been a first round pick.

*They scored 8 in a row by themselves on Thursday.

But that is why I make the big bucks: To see black and white where others see only shades of gray.

Let me start with a cheeky quote from a tipster that was my favorite before he got so brazened:

118 vs. 148. Robonauts v. Robowranglers. Both teams were clearly the best scoring teams at their previous regionals, but both got stopped in the finals. Can either pull it out in the clash of the titans here?
Both should now have autonomous (or at least will be attempting it). 118s driver really couldn't handle the machine in Bayou, but he's had a couple weeks to practice since then. He might even, perhaps, bust out the high gear on that "V6" (which they never even touched in New Orleans). 148 would have likely won St. Louis if 217's arm didn't break, but it did, and the Techokitties stopped 148 from busting out any big rows, topping them in 2 matches. 148 was the best, yet for some reason almost un-heralded scorer in Week 1, vanishing behind the success of Raider Robotix in Jersey. 118 drew tons of pre-ship attention with their posts and video about their drive and practice robot. All 148 posted was a pretty plain picture of a 6WD frame with IFI wheels and AM shifters. Will CD continue to ignore this dominant Texas scoring machine?

Did you catch those two matches 118 had vs 148? I was in the pits all day doing work and those were "Google Texted" times that I made sure I got to see. When SOAP comes out I will let you see what I'm talking about. Until than, let the suspense build.

But honestly, I really wanted to have a good match with or against these guys, before the regional. After experiencing it, I bet people where getting ready to run out of the stadium to get away from the sheer energy of these powerful teams fusing.

Dr. Joe, when can we expect some ATL predictions because already I doubt you will have time to finish !

Godspeed!
Pavan.

[Joe Johnson]

Originally Posted by Pavan

<snip>

Dr. Joe, when can we expect some ATL predictions because already I doubt you will have time to finish !

Godspeed!
Pavan.

I am noodling through this now. My spies and I will probably have something to say, but no promises just yet...

Joe J

[Joe Johnson]

I just looked up what happened to 2158 AusTIN CANs in TX. I see they won Rookie Allstar, no surprise there, but... ...they didn't get picked?!#!? I know that teams don't have a right to be drafted but, honestly, I CANNOT BELIEVE THEY WERE NOT PICKED!!! Really, what were the folks in TX thinking?

What gives?

#2158 is not on the list of teams for the Championships. The Rookie Allstar award gives them the right to go doesn't it?

Are they going?

If you have the scoop on this awesome rookie team, do tell...

Joe J.

[Joe Ross]

Originally Posted by Joe Johnson

#2158 is not on the list of teams for the Championships. The Rookie Allstar award gives them the right to go doesn't it?

If you go to their team page, it shows that they have registered: https://my.usfirst.org/myarea/index....info&team=2158 however, since they don't show up on the championship list, that means they haven't paid yet.

[MasonMM]

Concerning 2158, I talked with one of their mentors yesterday and they are quickly trying to raise the funds necessary for a trip to Atlanta. But overall he seemed confident that 2158 would be in Atlanta.

[Pavan Dave]

Originally Posted by Joe Johnson

I just looked up what happened to 2158 AusTIN CANs in TX. I see they won Rookie Allstar, no surprise there, but... ...they didn't get picked?!#!? I know that teams don't have a right to be drafted but, honestly, I CANNOT BELIEVE THEY WERE NOT PICKED!!! Really, what were the folks in TX thinking?

What gives?

#2158 is not on the list of teams for the Championships. The Rookie Allstar award gives them the right to go doesn't it?

Are they going?

If you have the scoop on this awesome rookie team, do tell...

Joe J.

I posted this under the "2007 best tube scorers" Page 10 at the bottom.

Unfortunately many teams do not understand this concept. I saw some bad calls at Lone Star and they seemed as if they did know what was going on. I think that many teams went unrecognized at the LSR because of this lack of scouting and this "blind faith" in seeding stats. Kryptonite and the ausTIN CANs were some of THE best bots in their class, but due to a combination of bad alliance partners and good opponents they stood no chance.

That is what happened Dr. Joe.

Everybody sees seeding scores, but not everyone sees in depth data of every team from every bot they've picked up to every tube they've scored and on which spider leg.

I was rooting for 2158 the whole time. They scored all 8 in a practice match Thursday, but its a shame that no one remembered that Saturday.

Pavan.

[lynca]

We just paid for Championship. When the qualification matches are posted, people will see some great matches with AusTIN CANS (2158). We saved some really good teams from losing a match (especially the regional finalists) . We also played against quite a few great teams, 476 and 364. We scored 8 in a practice match, 5 in a couple qualification matches and used ramps twice. We also had our autonomous almost score on multiple occasions.

I think we just lost the pick to 1750 and 1745 because most teams were looking for defense in the 3rd alliance.
148's head mentor told us directly they were looking to pick us, but 148 was not able to make the picking decision on their alliance.

Luckily, 2158 is going to championship and the robot has not suffered any major setbacks, so get ready atlanta, the ausTin Cans are coming !