Predictions Week 5: Last Stop Before the Big Show... ...Part 3

[Joe Johnson]

Man I will tell you true, Week 5 is the gift that just keeps on giving... ...10 Regionals, 468 teams playing, 39 of which were finalist or Champions in Weeks 1-4. It is a lot of work but it is a labor of love so... ...let's get to the
PREDICTIONS!!!!

There is only one lonely regional left to handicap, but it is a doozey

Western Michigan

Just 3 words sum it up pretty well.


HOE




LEE




COW!




Seismologists worry about the New Madrid Fault Line shaking up the Midwest when The Big One hits. FIRST folks have their own Big One to worry about: The Western Michigan Regional. This is the one they've been waiting get rocking and rolling since the Kick off.

What's so great you ask? Well not much... ...except well... ...take a LOOK at this team list. I counted 5 Grand Champions in that list (and I am only counting Beatty as 1 though they have won in 4 times) and 3 Chairman's Award Winners. That is some list!

I am going to make my first Championship predictions for 2007:

1. There are 25 teams from this regional currently schedule to go to the Championships. 18 of them will be playing after lunch on Saturday.
   
2. I will go farther still. Western Michigan will have a team in the finals of every division.
   
3. I will go farther STILL. At least 4 of them will make it to Einstein. Think about that: WMR will be 8% of the 302 teams in the Dome but they'll be 25% of the robots that Verbrugge introduces on the Main Stage.

But enough bravado, let's get to the teams. There are way too many to list or talk about but I will do my best to hit the highlights

• B.O.B. (Built on Brains #85) looked pretty good at the Boilermakers Regional but they had an early exit. They are too good to have that happen in Grand Rapids. They'll need help to win it all, but they should make it to the semis even if they have to put 2 rookies on their shoulders and carry them there.
• The Dragons from Walled Lake (#302) are in great form this year. They have a pretty fair tuber but I cringed over and over in Detroit as they would spend too much time getting lined up for the kill only to drop the tube uselessly on the floor. Their drivers are going to have to calm down and get some sneakiness in them.
• Killer Bees (#33) they had some pretty rough outings in Ypsi and Detroit, but earlier this week my spies in the DCX North American HQ building have reportedly seen them put 10 tubes on the rack in under 2 minutes with plenty of time to deploy their ramps (if only folks would climb them -- what is it with these robots with casters and 1/4" ground clearance? What were they thinking?). Of course, there is no way they could do that under fire but if they can do 10 un-molested it will take more than 1 robot to hold them to below 4.
• The Heroes of Tomorrow (#67) are going to be putting up big scores too. I don't know what to make of their lifters, but perhaps they have either pitched them or improved them. If they are ONLY as good as they were when they were the first team drafted at Great Lakes, they will likely make it to the finals, or at least they would at any of the other 9 regional this weekend.
• Team #74 seeded 9th in Chicago and slid into the 8th Alliance slot. They drafted Team #107. This should have been a good alliance but they just couldn't get past the #1 seed, they were out in 3. I don't see these two getting together again in their home regional, but one or both of them should have a good run on Saturday afternoon.
• West Ottawa (#141) looked good at times in Indiana, but when the defense turned it up a notch in the Elims, they just weren't up to the task. I don't think defense is going to dominate the way it did at Purdue, but even so, the Wobots will have to bring their A Game if they want to make it beyond the quarterfinals this time out.
• Team Rush (#27) should be in the hunt with their largish two bot ramp/lifter.
• The Goodrich twins, The Marians (#494) & the Other Marians (#70) managed to get drafted onto the same alliance in OH two weeks ago. They had good run but peaked in the semis. Was it a fluke or is this the best they've got? We'll see.
• Truck Town Thunder (#68) could be in the hunt. These guys are the energizer bunnies of FIRST -- they keep going and going and...
• Team #703 has some nice ramp action and a 14 wheel drive system that pretty much let them go wherever they wanted in Detroit. If they had run interference for the Thunder Chickens rather than dogging their opponents, things may have worked out differently for them. If they play smart, they could be a real asset.
• Team Pi (#1718) was just about my favorite team in Detroit. They scored very reliably in autonomous and put a ton of tubes but they were the only real scorer on their alliance -- that put a big red X on their backs. A second good scorer should not be a problem this weekend. Word to the wise: the Pi robot requires a "WIDE LOAD" permit to be transported on the Interstate Freeway System -- not just any ramp will do for Team Pi. Drafting Teams, take note.
• and the list goes on and on

But enough preliminaries. Now to the MAIN EVENT:
Swerve Vs. Swerve Vs. Swerve

Swerve #1
This team got their swerve on back in the day and hasn't looked back. It probably just started as a programming challenge for Flowerday & his army of programming gods & goddesses but they soon learned how powerful that sideways motion can be in tight quarters. Their arm is a work of art. They like to load over the wall. They've got Raul-the-Magnificent[8] behind the glass keeping it all real while barking out commands in that always horse voice of his. Spies from Grand Rapids tell me they may be not be using their ramps this competition. They are fresh off they're big win in Chicago. They'll have to do it without the aid of those 30 points they scored by cleverly strapping one dead robot to another and hitting the E-stops... ...they were Grand Champs in Atlanta in 2003... ...the one, the only, the ones I think I love.... WildStang #111

Swerve #2
It took this team years to get the Swerve Religion. But get it they did. Triple Play finally convinced Bill & the Boys from Hammond that going forward & backward was just not good enough. Having seen the light, Swerve has become a staple of their robots. They were Regional Chairman's Award winners in Chicago but had some ticky tack robot problems that hurt them and went home after the semis. Their field general, Brian, is a giant by almost any measure (certainly in spirit and in height and in strategy) and always seems to get the most from his drive team. He must be doing something right because they have more Grand Championships than any team has a right to even dream about... ...they've been pumping out Beasts since 1996... ...I give you... Team Hammond (#71)

Swerve #3
This team decided that building this years robot was just too boring. What was the challenge of being able to

• score on all levels of the rack (which I don't think they have shown yet in a match, by the way)
• have a HUGE ramp that unfolds into a very gradual incline like some sort magician's cabinet and
• lift the last robot on the ramp to 12+ inches... ...in a hurry.

It was just too boring. So, heck, why not add swerve this year? They had never done it before and they probably wouldn't need it anyway, but how hard could it be, really? and besides, it would keep them from being bored. I don't know if they were bored or not but they certainly have put the swerve to good use at times. When they get their A Drivers on the sticks, this bot glides like a hovercraft. When they get a less experienced set, well, to say they are a bit jerky is being kind. As is their habit, they didn't finish their robot before ship date so they had a rough weekend in Great Lakes. They did better in Detroit, coming close but having to settle for Finalist. They have one of the best engineers in all of FIRST in Artur Ostrowski. They work as hard as any team I know. They have been on the Einstein stage often. They won it all in 2003 and came close to winning back-to-back Grand Championships when the were Finalist in the Dome in 2004. Ladies and Gents... ...I give you Las Guerrillas!



So... ...which is going to pull it out? I am going with WildStang. They are just too good on so many levels. It will take some doing but they pull it out in the end.

That's the way I see it and I am off to bed...

Joe J.

Notes
[8] For those who have asked me about this nick name, please see the bottom of this post for How Raul became The Magnificent. A True Story by Joe J.

[Joe Johnson]

Oh yeah, I promised a comparative analysis of the regionals -- you can infer a lot but let me be explicit:

Top 5 Regionals to See Defense Make the Differnence

1. Long Island
2. Philly
3. Palmetto
4. Colorado
5. Lone Star

Top 5 Regionals to See Offense Make the Differnence

1. Western Michigan
2. Toronto
3. Las Vegas
4. Lone Star
5. Sacramento

Rating for Excitement & Overall Influence on Championships

1. Western Michigan
2. Toronto
3. Las Vegas
4. Lone Star
5. Sacramento
6. Philly
7. Palmetto
8. Long Island
9. Colorado

Note, I left GM/Israel out because the past is the past.

Let's have a great weekend.

Joe J.

[Joe Ross]

Interesting that all three swerve teams are in the group ranked 35th-40th right now.

PS what is a Predition?

[GaryVoshol]

Originally Posted by Joe Johnson

[/list]Top 5 Regionals to See Offense Make the Differnence

1. Western Michigan

Yeah - look at the scores!

[Ricky Q.]

Originally Posted by wsansewjs

Eh. . .

Florida has one of the strongest regionals out there. . . It has been out there for long time.

-Josh S.

But is the Florida Regional this week?

Great scoring at West Michigan and GTR.

[Corey Balint]

I don't know what youre talking about Dr. Joe, Palmetto is by far one of the best regionals I've seen all year. Right now, only WMR is beating it.

[Joe Johnson]

Originally Posted by Joe Ross

<snip>

PS what is a Predition?

My bad. Fixed.
JJ

[Joe Johnson]

Friday night, just checking the standings vs. the predictions.

I know I tipped a lot of teams but let me summarize
Pi (#1718) is tearing it up #1 seed, 6-1
Killer Bees (#33) has finally hit their stride #2 Seed, 6-1
Wobots (#141) is #3 seed
Truck Town Thunder (#68) is #4 seed
Walled Lake (#302) is #8 seed
BOB (#85) is #10
Team Rush (#27) is #11

Some teams I tipped have had it tougher
HOT (#67), #703, #74, and most notably #111, #71 & #469 are down in the rankings but tomorrow is another day. I suppose all of these teams will be playing after lunch.

All the low seed means is that they won't be Alliance Captains this week... ...so what? ...Is the banner is any bluer for the AC than it is for the 2 drafted teams?

Joe J.

[LightWaves1636]

Originally Posted by Joe Johnson

Oh yeah, I promised a comparative analysis of the regionals -- you can infer a lot but let me be explicit:

Top 5 Regionals to See Defense Make the Differnence

1. Long Island
2. Philly
3. Palmetto
4. Colorado
5. Lone Star

Top 5 Regionals to See Offense Make the Differnence

1. Western Michigan
2. Toronto
3. Las Vegas
4. Lone Star
5. Sacramento

Rating for Excitement & Overall Influence on Championships

1. Western Michigan
2. Toronto
3. Las Vegas
4. Lone Star
5. Sacramento
6. Philly
7. Palmetto
8. Long Island
9. Colorado

Note, I left GM/Israel out because the past is the past.

Let's have a great weekend.

Joe J.

Defense was really big, the best was of course 1583. It just seems like Colorado is getting smaller and smaller but hopefully we can all make it grow. Team 1636 may not be a team next year but some of us are going to start volunteering and mentoring. 1619 had good defense too, I love their ramp because of the lift at the end. but we like any ramp that can efficently get back to the home zone when promised in the strategy(I just can't thank 1583 enough, sorry it's an earlier match I'm thinking about with another team, they promised to back at 30s but no, they went back 10s). 207, 1636, 1158, 2083, and 555 were the some of the best score bots out there.(I know I'm missing some teams out).

[T3_1565]

toronto had "what may have been the highest scoring match this year" with a score of 338-0 prediction was right on toronto was a full rack!

[Craig Roys]

Dr. Joe,

Thanks for the kind words about our team (1718). We are extremely proud of what we've been able to accomplish as only a 2nd year team. We are now ready to go at it again in 2008 (after a bit of rest of course).

One note - my team will be on me if I don't mention it. We are not Team Pi, not any pi will do...We are The Fighting Pi

[Joe Johnson]

Originally Posted by Craig Roys

Dr. Joe,

Thanks for the kind words about our team (1718). We are extremely proud of what we've been able to accomplish as only a 2nd year team. We are now ready to go at it again in 2008 (after a bit of rest of course).

One note - my team will be on me if I don't mention it. We are not Team Pi, not any pi will do...We are The Fighting Pi

Fighting Pi indeed! My bad. Keep up the fight.

Joe J.

[freestylemotox]

[*] The Dragons from Walled Lake (#302) are in great form this year. They have a pretty fair tuber but I cringed over and over in Detroit as they would spend too much time getting lined up for the kill only to drop the tube uselessly on the floor. Their drivers are going to have to calm down and get some sneakiness in them.


F.Y.I team 302 is from Lake Orion not Walled Lake

[Travis Hoffman]

Originally Posted by T3_1565

toronto had "what may have been the highest scoring match this year" with a score of 338-0 prediction was right on toronto was a full rack!

To be fair, this match was conducted with only 1 robot on the field facing them in the opposing alliance, in Qualification 15. I did not see the match personally, and there's no vid yet, but the actual score was 338-4, which tells me the one lone robot seemed intent to try and score on its own during the match, which implies it wasn't playing much, if any defense on the other alliance as they put up their ringers.

This was more of an exhibition of prior planning, communication, and teamwork than a true test of skill.

No slight to the great offensive robots involved, but let's make sure all the facts are on the table.

[Tom Bottiglieri]

Originally Posted by Travis Hoffman

This was more of an exhibition of prior planning, communication, and teamwork than a true test of skill.

No slight to the great offensive robots involved, but let's make sure all the facts are on the table.

Yeah, Buzz's showing of 316-0 in a FIRST WEEK REGIONAL elimination round is more impressive, IMHO. Probably the most impressive thing of the year for me.