Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein

[Joe Johnson]

First things first.

FIRST did a pretty good job balancing the divisions this year (A/C/G/N).

• Median Team No: 880.5/938.5/917.5/899
• Team No < 1000: 46/44/45/45
• Team No > 1950: 10/10/11/11
• Regional Champions: 30/22/25/23
• Regional Finalists: 7/13/14/15
• Single Dippers (1X Regional Finalist or Champion): 35/31/37/35
• Double Dippers (2X Regional Finalist or Champion): 7/8/4/5

That is about as balanced as you could expect -- I suppose if we pushed things one way or another you'd pretty much push some other numbers around.

Before I get too far, notice that every division has over 30 teams that have won a regional or were regionals finalists. And a lot of great teams left the regionals early without even making it that far.

SO... ...don't even THINK that winning a regional is going to be enough to GUARANTEE being drafted. Teams in Atlanta are going to have to fight like dogs to get noticed. Being one of those 16 teams drafted in each division is a prize in itself. Don't take things for granted or you'll be watching the eliminations from the sidelines.

You can read my divisional predictions for how I think those are likely to come out but I read it this way: For each division I have Tips and Locks. Tips are just that: teams to watch, they have a good chance of having a long run after lunch on Saturday. Locks are my highest pick tier: I estimate that a lock has a better than 50% chance of making it to the Finals of their Division.

Let's face it, skill matters, but luck plays a big part of how things go down in the Dome. To win on Einstein, it is going to take two Locks plus a serviceable 3rd robot to fill in the gaps.

Given that I have to go with Curie. They have 6 Locks (118, 121, 126, 330, 469, & 1114 -- more than any other division) If Curie Champion has 2 of these teams on board, the other divisions will have a long afternoon.

Galileo has the next best shot with 4 Locks: 25, 56, 229, 503.

Archimedes and Newton have 3 Locks each (100/175/254 & 33/111/148).

You can quibble with my picks but that is the way I see things from this vantage.

BOTTOM LINE:
So who's it going to be?

You have got to be kidding! There are almost 350 teams and you want me to pick 3 that will be lucky enough get together and make a run for it. The odds are 1,000,000:1 against my getting this thing correct, but here goes.

PREDICTION:
Lighting will strike twice for #469, they get picked by Curie's #1 Seed, #1114 who also manages to steal #176 who is inexplicably still available in the 2nd round. Many tough matches but in the end, Simbotics, Las Guerrillas, & Aces High are just too much for the competition.

Good luck to all teams.

Joe J.