Appalachian State!!!!

[Dan Richardson]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

Aren't the divisions based on the size of the schools, not the success of the programs?

No, its not like high schools there are different criteria. There are many bigger D1AA schools than some D1A schools

[xzvrw2]

to go from D-II to D-I, yes, it is on size, but D-IAA to D-IA it is about skillz.
yes with a z.
and michigan will not fire a coach. they will not fire car, which is stupid.

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by Cory

I think he's gone at the end of the season regardless of what happens.

3 straight losses to OSU. 3 straight bowl game losses. He's been on the hot seat for awhile. His seat is now fiery.

I don't think anyone really knows if he's been on the hot seat, and I don't he has been. It may be getting warmer now, but it shouldn't be hot yet. Michigan was undefeated until their final game of the regular season last year. He's won more than 70% of his games in Michigan, won a national title, and multiple Big 10 titles. Firing him would be a mistake, and they certainly wouldn't find a better coach to replace him.

[Cory]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

I don't think anyone really knows if he's been on the hot seat, and I don't he has been. It may be getting warmer now, but it shouldn't be hot yet. Michigan was undefeated until their final game of the regular season last year. He's won more than 70% of his games in Michigan, won a national title, and multiple Big 10 titles. Firing him would be a mistake, and they certainly wouldn't find a better coach to replace him.

The problem with your entire statement was that it was developed by a rational person (yourself).

This is what Joe Blow diehard Michigan fan would say, or more importantly what UM's big time boosters will say when they call up the Athletic Department pissed about losing to ASU.

"We haven't won a national championship in 10 years. Last year was our best shot and Lloyd Carr went and lost to the Buckeyes for the 3rd year in a row. Then we got pasted by USC in the Rose Bowl. The year before we lost to an average Nebraska team, and the year before that, we lost to Texas and the year before that we got our butts whooped by USC again. Now we go and lose to Appalachian State. A Division I-AA team. A team we were favored to beat by a million points. A team who had no business even being on the same field as ours. And we LOST to them. What are you going to do about it?"

That's what's going to happen. It doesn't matter how good of a coach Carr is, or how dumb it would be to fire him. Look at Larry Coker's career win percentage. It didn't help him any with keeping his job (granted Miami had all kinds of problems, but if Carr goes anywhere close to the 7-6 Coker did, they might as well be in the same situation).

[Dan Richardson]

Originally Posted by Cory

The problem with your entire statement was that it was developed by a rational person (yourself).

This is what Joe Blow diehard Michigan fan would say, or more importantly what UM's big time boosters will say when they call up the Athletic Department pissed about losing to ASU.

"We haven't won a national championship in 10 years. Last year was our best shot and Lloyd Carr went and lost to the Buckeyes for the 3rd year in a row. Then we got pasted by USC in the Rose Bowl. The year before we lost to an average Nebraska team, and the year before that, we lost to Texas and the year before that we got our butts whooped by USC again. Now we go and lose to Appalachian State. A Division I-AA team. A team we were favored to beat by a million points. A team who had no business even being on the same field as ours. And we LOST to them. What are you going to do about it?"

That's what's going to happen. It doesn't matter how good of a coach Carr is, or how dumb it would be to fire him. Look at Larry Coker's career win percentage. It didn't help him any with keeping his job (granted Miami had all kinds of problems, but if Carr goes anywhere close to the 7-6 Coker did, they might as well be in the same situation).

Exactly, college football definitely falls into the what have you done for me lately category, coaches can't rely on past success.

[Jeremiah Johnson]

Originally Posted by Stud Man Dan

Exactly, college football definitely falls into the what have you done for me lately category, coaches can't rely on past success.

Which is why I'm all for replacing Philip Fulmer at Tennessee. No SEC Championship since 1998, when they won the National Championship. And on top of that, 2005 they had a losing record and lost to VANDERBILT. Who they hadn't lost to for 22 years.

[JackN]

Michigan won't fire him, which is stupid. The boosters and the AD love him, and he has the support of most of the people he needs. There has been a growing trend in fans however for a change at the top. That '97 team was built by Bo Schembechler and had what might be the greatest defense in college football history. Carr is a slightly above average coach, but he hasn't changed his game in years. They can't beat a running quarter-back and the going against any kind of speed on offense kills them. I still think they should win most of their games, I think a 9-3 record, with losses to Wisconsin and again to OSU killing them. I wouldn't be surprised if Oregon beats them though, they play that killer spread offense as well.

[Jeremiah Johnson]

Originally Posted by JackN

Michigan won't fire him, which is stupid. The boosters and the AD love him, and he has the support of most of the people he needs. There has been a growing trend in fans however for a change at the top. That '97 team was built by Bo Schembechler and had what might be the greatest defense in college football history. Carr is a slightly above average coach, but he hasn't changed his game in years. They can't beat a running quarter-back and the going against any kind of speed on offense kills them. I still think they should win most of their games, I think a 9-3 record, with losses to Wisconsin and again to OSU killing them. I wouldn't be surprised if Oregon beats them though, they play that killer spread offense as well.

There's several things in common between Fulmer and Carr... mostly that they haven't changed their game in years. Makes me mad. The 1998 NC team was built by him, but that's it... they are a pro caliber player producing team, but they do nothing with the talent they recruit. I'm ready for a change at several schools.

I don't mean to change subject. I'm not a huge fan of Michigan, but I did think they were going to do great things this year.

[Lil' Lavery]

Even with a "What have you done recently" mentality, firing Carr would still be a poor choice. In the last 3 seasons, he has a 27-10 (.729) record, with two Rose Bowl appearances, including 11-2 last season. Two trips to the BCS, aka (usually) the Top 10 at regular season's end, is no laughing matter.
And patience is a virtue too seldom practiced, but rewarded in college football. Let's look at a coach with a similar problem a couple years ago. Mack Brown struggled to beat Oklahoma and win the Big 12. He lost 4 (maybe more) straight games to the Sooners, and couldn't even capture the Big 12 South. But then in 2005, he led Texas over the Sooners, and then over USC (and everyone else) and to a National Championship. And Mack Brown's career coaching record isn't even as good as Carr's (.650 winning %).
Ironically, Brown started his coaching career at...Appalachian State
Now Brown is only one of three coaches with 10 or more wins each of the past three seasons, Pete Carrol and Frank Beamer the others. And Beamer makes another suitable example. When he took over Virginia Tech it wasn't a national powerhouse, in fact, it was much closer to the other end of the spectrum. From 1987-1993 he only had two winning seasons. After his 2-8-1 mark in 1993, many wanted him fired, but VT was patient. In 1994, the Hokies went 9-3, beginning their streak of bowl appearances (the nations longest, currently at 14 consecutive years), winning seasons, and rise to the ranks of national powerhouse teams. As mentioned, they are now one of only three teams with three consecutive double-digit win seasons.

The bottom line is, Carr is one of the most successful coaches in the nation, and more than likely, the best coach possible for Michigan at this time. Appalachian State won that game more than Michigan lost it, especially in the second half, when they blocked the two field goals. Appalachian state has some talent, although the have nowhere near the depth of Michigan, and utilized that talent to the maximum. If anyone is to blame, it's Appalachian State, not Lloyd Carr.

[Dan Richardson]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

Even with a "What have you done recently" mentality, firing Carr would still be a poor choice. In the last 3 seasons, he has a 27-10 (.729) record, with two Rose Bowl appearances, including 11-2 last season.

Exactly thats the problem, 11-2 "usually" won't get you anywhere near the national championship game. Thats what they want and all they want, everything else is failing. Also the losses the past few years have been embarrassing. Sure its not smart to fire him and there would be 100 other colleges in DI-A happy with that record, but I can tell you that the better half of ~109Thousand in that were at that game in big house want him gone.

Sure he may not be fired, but he was in the hot seat before after the embarrassing loss to USC and its even hotter now. I doubt he'll be fired but follow that loss up without redemption and have a poor season and loyalty goes out the window pretty quick.

[Jeremiah Johnson]

I just want to mention that Appalachian State could probably beat a good portion of the D-1A teams... well over half. I would say, thought, that Michigan would win at least 8of10 attempts against Appy State.

Appalachian State showed true courage in that game and they never gave up, neither did Michigan, though. Without the mobile quarterback on ASU, Michigan wins handily. One player can really make a difference, against a team that may have over looked them.

[Cory]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

Even with a "What have you done recently" mentality, firing Carr would still be a poor choice. In the last 3 seasons, he has a 27-10 (.729) record, with two Rose Bowl appearances, including 11-2 last season. Two trips to the BCS, aka (usually) the Top 10 at regular season's end, is no laughing matter.
And patience is a virtue too seldom practiced, but rewarded in college football. Let's look at a coach with a similar problem a couple years ago. Mack Brown struggled to beat Oklahoma and win the Big 12. He lost 4 (maybe more) straight games to the Sooners, and couldn't even capture the Big 12 South. But then in 2005, he led Texas over the Sooners, and then over USC (and everyone else) and to a National Championship. And Mack Brown's career coaching record isn't even as good as Carr's (.650 winning %).
Ironically, Brown started his coaching career at...Appalachian State
Now Brown is only one of three coaches with 10 or more wins each of the past three seasons, Pete Carrol and Frank Beamer the others. And Beamer makes another suitable example. When he took over Virginia Tech it wasn't a national powerhouse, in fact, it was much closer to the other end of the spectrum. From 1987-1993 he only had two winning seasons. After his 2-8-1 mark in 1993, many wanted him fired, but VT was patient. In 1994, the Hokies went 9-3, beginning their streak of bowl appearances (the nations longest, currently at 14 consecutive years), winning seasons, and rise to the ranks of national powerhouse teams. As mentioned, they are now one of only three teams with three consecutive double-digit win seasons.

The bottom line is, Carr is one of the most successful coaches in the nation, and more than likely, the best coach possible for Michigan at this time. Appalachian State won that game more than Michigan lost it, especially in the second half, when they blocked the two field goals. Appalachian state has some talent, although the have nowhere near the depth of Michigan, and utilized that talent to the maximum. If anyone is to blame, it's Appalachian State, not Lloyd Carr.

Trips to the BCS are nothing for an UM, OSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Miami, U$C, etc fan. The only bowl worth talking about for them is the National Championship. Anything else is a letdown, period. All these teams, their schools, and their fans expect to be in the NC game every single year.

Two Rose Bowl appearances, and two losses. 18-7 the last two seasons with losses to three of their arch-rivals--OSU, ND, USC, and more losses to multiple other teams they should have beaten.

I'd really say 2005 was a poor example for Mack Brown, though I appreciate your point that patience is a virtue. Vince Young was as special a college player as you'll ever see. I thought it was clear that Mack Brown was not coaching in 2005. He was simply putting the ball in Vince Young's hands and letting him make plays. He was a figurehead, for all practical purposes. I think it's the consensus of most college football fans that Brown is at best a very average gameday coach, who manages to recruit exceptional talent year in year out. Furthermore, Oklahoma was a very bad team by OU standards in 2005. They got beat by a couple teams they should have steamrollered.

Beamer is a good example. But teams who are not traditional powerhouses don't have the expectation that they should be competing for a NC every year. This allows their coaches much more leeway should their teams perform poorly at first. Beamer eventually turned VT into a perennial top 10 team, and now their fans expect every year to be in the hunt for a NC.

If Lloyd Carr was a good coach, I think he'd have beat someone of note in the last 3 years (I don't count ND at #2 last year, because they always were, always are, and always will be massively overrated). He has just as much talent as any other top 10 team, but hasn't done as much with it.

Firing him probably wouldn't be smart. But there is no way it's outside the realm of possibilities. If there were someone even perceived to be as an equal to him, letalone better, I'd fire him if I were UM.

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by Cory

If Lloyd Carr was a good coach, I think he'd have beat someone of note in the last 3 years (I don't count ND at #2 last year, because they always were, always are, and always will be massively overrated). He has just as much talent as any other top 10 team, but hasn't done as much with it.

Does being the only team to beat Wisconsin last year count?
Or the only team to beat Penn St. in 2005?
Iowa in 2004?

[Wetzel]

App State Rugby hosts an awesome tournament every year...

oh, wait. Football.

[Cory]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

Does being the only team to beat Wisconsin last year count?
Or the only team to beat Penn St. in 2005?
Iowa in 2004?

I was talking about rankings.

But yes, Wisconsin was a nice win last year. Check out their schedule though. Even though they were a good team, they didn't have to play OSU, played 7 or 8 patsies, and lost to the only ranked team they played in the regular season. Nor were they ranked when UM beat them. Plus they only played 3 teams with winning records prior to facing Arkansas.

I'll give you PSU in 2005. That was a solid win. Not an OSU or USC, but still good.

Iowa was pretty good in 04, but they were very streaky and lost when they shouldnt have.

I think my point still remains... If Carr was a top tier coach, he would 1) beat OSU more often, and 2) win more bowl games. That's what Michigan's season comes down to. With the athletes that UM has, the only explanation to me, for losing 3 straight times to OSU and 4 straight bowl games is coaching.