Scoring Predictions Anyone?

[Spartan151]

Practice field? What practice field? We didn't have money to build one....

That aside, I would say that a winning alliance score would be around the 50-70 range, given that AT LEAST one robot is equipped with an autoloader (being able to hurdle and reload without requiring the aid of another robot to do so.) . Remember, since team alliances vary every match, you may (Though it may be highly unlikely) get paired with two other teams that require another robot to reload them, and you yourself have to do the same, giving you only three shots over the Overpass, total.

Also, I'd say a losing alliance score can be anywhere from 0-50, depending on how close the match is and how fast it progresses. However, if I had to narrow the scores down, I'd push it around to the 30-point range. It only takes one point to decide a match. But that's how I see the scores coming down to.

[Ali Ahmed]

In my opinion, I'd say that the winning alliance score, on average of all the regionals, would be ~50ish. But the losing alliance could vary from far off to nail-biting close.

But if we look at regionals, I'd say Week 1 winning will probably be ~20ish. Again losing will vary.

And Week 5 regionals will see winning scores around 60. Teams will get into the groove and be more comfortable with hurdling and handling the trackball. Again losing will vary.

All these scores will be before penalties, which there will be a lot of. So subtract around 5-10 points from the scores.

And I'll go out on a limb and predict the highest score of the season will be 112.

[hipsterjr]

Going back to the classic argument...I see launchers scoring 1-2 hurdles more per match than most arms.

Also, I think 1-2 bots will tip over every other match.

good aliences will score 50-70

[Tottanka]

Originally Posted by ali_rockon22

And I'll go out on a limb and predict the highest score of the season will be 112.

Does that include IRI?

i believe that IRI will have a 250+ points score, and that we will se more then 3 200+ scores prior to the championship.

[Cory]

Originally Posted by Tottanka

Does that include IRI?

i believe that IRI will have a 250+ points score, and that we will se more then 3 200+ scores prior to the championship.

In my humble opinion, this is lunacy.

If there is a 200+ point match, I will buy yourself, and every team involved a case of Dew (or their favorite alternative soft drink).

[jgannon]

Originally Posted by Tottanka

i believe that IRI will have a 250+ points score, and that we will se more then 3 200+ scores prior to the championship.

There are going to be some amazing robots this year, and I'm prepared to have my mind blown. That being said, let's put together a spectacular hypothetical alliance and do the math. (It's all about the math, right?)

Take a fast lap bot like 148, and two beastly hurdlers. Let's say that they can manage to knock down both balls in hybrid and cross twelve lines (roughly a lap each... odds are that one will go farther, and another will get hung up on another robot). They start driver control with 64 points. Despite the field congestion, 148 clocks a lap every ten seconds, netting them 24 points. The other two bots score a remarkable eleven hurdles and crosses... and they finish with 198 points. This would require an unbelievable alignment of the cosmos just to score that many points. On top of that, as these bots are hurtling around the field, they'd better hope they don't rear-end somebody hurdling for the other alliance, or they're out another ten points.

In any case, much like last year, the record score will not be set at IRI or at the championship... it will be set in qualifying at the regional level, with a heavily stacked alliance against a group of absent or broken bots. 190+ is feasible, once. 200+? I'll eat my hat.

[Tottanka]

Originally Posted by jgannon

There are going to be some amazing robots this year, and I'm prepared to have my mind blown. That being said, let's put together a spectacular hypothetical alliance and do the math. (It's all about the math, right?)

Take a fast lap bot like 148, and two beastly hurdlers. Let's say that they can manage to knock down both balls in hybrid and cross twelve lines (roughly a lap each... odds are that one will go farther, and another will get hung up on another robot). They start driver control with 64 points. Despite the field congestion, 148 clocks a lap every ten seconds, netting them 24 points. The other two bots score a remarkable eleven hurdles and crosses... and they finish with 198 points. This would require an unbelievable alignment of the cosmos just to score that many points. On top of that, as these bots are hurtling around the field, they'd better hope they don't rear-end somebody hurdling for the other alliance, or they're out another ten points.

In any case, much like last year, the record score will not be set at IRI or at the championship... it will be set in qualifying at the regional level, with a heavily stacked alliance against a group of absent or broken bots. 190+ is feasible, once. 200+? I'll eat my hat.

Got your point, i've exagarted.
let's say 3 150+ scores and 1 190+. Seems more likely?

[Guy Davidson]

Originally Posted by jgannon

In any case, much like last year, the record score will not be set at IRI or at the championship... it will be set in qualifying at the regional level, with a heavily stacked alliance against a group of absent or broken bots. 190+ is feasible, once. 200+? I'll eat my hat.

Agreed. I just really don't see anyone putting up a score of above 200. A score of above 100 will be extremely rare; 200+ just sounds impossible to me.

I also agree with the many posted who commented on defense. I think that particularly in early weeks, but also in the later regionals and the world championship, most defensive efforts will be met with penalties. This game is designed to combat most traditional defensive with heavy penalties. So while defensive efforts will prevent robots from achieving their full scoring potential, they will pay a heavy price in penalties.

[IndySam]

I think many of you are seriously underestimating the amount of defense that will be allowed in this game.

A robot can impede you from getting to a ball it just cant impede you from getting around the track.

These balls are very bouncy and a few strategic hits can make them very hard to pick up. Also the angled walls can bring a nice twist to the game.

As far as huge scores go, I don't think it will happen as some imagine. A smart alliance is not going to run up the score on their opponents. This year an opposing alliance can score for their opponents. A team that gets a big lead will be well served in remembering the importance of the RP's

Originally Posted by jgannon

Take a fast lap bot like 148, and two beastly hurdlers. Let's say that they can manage to knock down both balls in hybrid and cross twelve lines (roughly a lap each... odds are that one will go farther, and another will get hung up on another robot). They start driver control with 64 points. Despite the field congestion, 148 clocks a lap every ten seconds, netting them 24 points. The other two bots score a remarkable eleven hurdles and crosses... and they finish with 198 points. This would require an unbelievable alignment of the cosmos just to score that many points. On top of that, as these bots are hurtling around the field, they'd better hope they don't rear-end somebody hurdling for the other alliance, or they're out another ten points.

Take 2 fast herding lap bots and one efficient shooter bot like 118. Going with the same assumption that both balls are knocked down during hybrid and 12 lines are managed, 64 pts will be scored in auto. Then, 118 will camp out in its own home stretch while the 2 herders bring balls around to it. Every half lap for the herders, 118 will get a hurdle. If the herders manage 8 laps each, that's 16 hurdles for 128 pts, plus 32 pts for the laps.

Grand total of 224 points.

[smurfgirl]

Originally Posted by jgannon

There are going to be some amazing robots this year, and I'm prepared to have my mind blown. That being said, let's put together a spectacular hypothetical alliance and do the math. (It's all about the math, right?)

Take a fast lap bot like 148, and two beastly hurdlers. Let's say that they can manage to knock down both balls in hybrid and cross twelve lines (roughly a lap each... odds are that one will go farther, and another will get hung up on another robot). They start driver control with 64 points. Despite the field congestion, 148 clocks a lap every ten seconds, netting them 24 points. The other two bots score a remarkable eleven hurdles and crosses... and they finish with 198 points. This would require an unbelievable alignment of the cosmos just to score that many points. On top of that, as these bots are hurtling around the field, they'd better hope they don't rear-end somebody hurdling for the other alliance, or they're out another ten points.

In any case, much like last year, the record score will not be set at IRI or at the championship... it will be set in qualifying at the regional level, with a heavily stacked alliance against a group of absent or broken bots. 190+ is feasible, once. 200+? I'll eat my hat.

I agree- I did some similar math, and determined that there is a chance of a score between 190-200, but only an exceptionally played match, where everything goes as planned among three amazing robots. The other math I did (before regionals started) said that a really well played match was around 110, and that average would be 60-ish. Those predictions were right, so that makes me think that 250+ is incredibly unlikely.

[Wayne TenBrink]

Here are some scoring statistics for the first two weeks. This includes all regionals. The median and average scores are very close this year.

Median winning score (qualifying matches): 45
Median losing score (qualifying matches): 20
Median high score (qualifying matches): 97

Median winning score (eliminations): 73
Median losing score (eliminations): 43


Here is a crude look at the role experience plays. It is based on team number.
Median Team Number in attendance: 1134
Median Team Number to make eliminations: 1190
This statistic varied a lot.

I find it interesting that the median "experience" of the teams that made it to the elimination rounds is lower than the overall median experience at the event in general. That's encouraging to those of us on young teams!

[Guy Davidson]

If you're doing stats on those numbers, care to publish some of the other interesting numbers? average, std. dev., etc.?

Now I'm tempted to do some stats by myself. I probably will, once I have time

[Mageofdancingdr]

I don't know if it's possible, but can we also get a look at the average scoring gap between the losing and winning teams?

[Wayne TenBrink]

I'll give this a try (cut & paste from a spreadsheet) and see if the columns line up.

Here are summary results for each regional. I looked at the median and average, but they were almost always within one point (unlike last year, where the average was much higher than the median due to a few blowout scores). I didn't look at standard deviation. I got the raw data from the FIRST site.

Med Win Q = Median score of the winning alliance in qualifying matches
Med Lose Q = Same, except for losing alliance
Max Qual = Maximum alliance score in qualifying matches
Med Win E = Median score of the winning team in elimination matches
Med Lose E = Same, except for losing alliance
Med Tm Q = Median team number in all qualifying matches
Med Tm E = Median team number of the 24 teams in the elimination matches

Event Week Med Win Q Med Lose Q Max Qual Med Win E Med Lose E Med Tm Q Med Tm E
Midwest 1 49 20 112 71 43 1650 1179
Granite 1 53 30 92 82 52 613 780
NJ 1 42 20 100 74 64 1089 521
St. L 1 56 26 94 82 60 1178 1096
Oregon 1 40 16 78 56 38 1540 1483
FLR 2 58 34 118 81 51 703 371
KC 2 40 18 76 44 36 1827 1960
VCU 2 41 17 122 54 42 762 1200
AZ 2 36 12 82 55 38 1726 1563
SD 2 48 21 120 87 41 981 1283


Summary 45 20 97 72.5 42.5 1133.5 1189.5