Scoring Predictions Anyone?

[Steve Kaneb]

Originally Posted by TheNotoriousKid

I did not mean to point you out at all by the way. But, I was just wondering why it seems as if no one has any faith in any other region of FIRST?

Because the New England region is known much more for effective defense, something that leads to lower scores overall. Just because we play effective defense doesn't mean that each robot or alliance can't score as much as in the Midwest, or even the West Coast side of things.

I'm not complaining, our alliance last year needed to have a high scorer (987 from Las Vegas) and an effective defender (177 from Connecticut).

[Vikesrock]

Originally Posted by TheNotoriousKid

I did not mean to point you out at all by the way. But, I was just wondering why it seems as if no one has any faith in any other region of FIRST?

I don't think it has anything to do with "faith" in regions of FIRST. When we (or at least I) look at the regionals and guess (that's all we're doing here is guessing) which regional will be strongest/toughest/most competitive/highest scoring/etc. we are merely looking at lists of teams and applying past observations to future events.

Even if every CD user thought that Midwest was going to be the best regional ever because 111, 1114, and 71 are going to get on the same alliance and zip around the field scoring 300 pts. it doesn't really make it any more likely to happen. We have to always remember that many things that happen here on CD are for fun. When these threads pop up about what regional will be this or that or when we draft teams for FantasyFIRST we have to remember that FIRST is even less about these threads than it is about the robots. Instead of looking at these threads and being angry/disappointed/frustrated about why your regional or team is not the highest on the list we should look at the teams that are the highest on the list and try to figure out why they are there and how we can better our own teams and regions so we can try and reach that same level.

If you want to have a debate about which regional is really the best, first you have to get some data about which regional had the most learning, which regional had the most inspiration, and which regional had the most fun. When you find an objective way to determine that, then I might believe that what we are talking about here really matters, until then these threads are all for fun and anyone that doesn't see that needs to relax.

[jgannon]

Originally Posted by TheNotoriousKid

I did not mean to point you out at all by the way. But, I was just wondering why it seems as if no one has any faith in any other region of FIRST?

Yes, there will be some exciting matches in places around the country this week, and undoubtedly your team will be part of some of them. But c'mon, have you even seen the team list for Midwest?

https://my.usfirst.org/myarea/index....L&sort=teamnum

Seriously, look at it. Four former national champions (seven total wins), two hall-of-fame members... and 1114. St. Louis has 3 and 0, NJ has 1 and 1. Midwest is the place to be if you want the best look at what Einstein will be like.

[Wayne C.]

Originally Posted by jgannon

Yes, there will be some exciting matches in places around the country this week, and undoubtedly your team will be part of some of them. But c'mon, have you even seen the team list for Midwest?

https://my.usfirst.org/myarea/index....L&sort=teamnum

Seriously, look at it. Four former national champions (seven total wins), two hall-of-fame members... and 1114. St. Louis has 3 and 0, NJ has 1 and 1. Midwest is the place to be if you want the best look at what Einstein will be like.

I predict that scores will highly reflect the awarding of penalties by the referees and we might see that to the extent it was in 2005 with the tetras. Many rounds will have that pause at the end to see how many points will be deducted and whether it swings the match.

And, of course, no region can be as good as the Midwest, everyone on CD knows that!! (TIC)

WC

[DGrohnke1023]

Great Lakes is NOT week 1 but does include
Eight former world champions with 8 wins and 2 hall of fame teams. Also a team from Michigan was on the winning championship alliance from 2001-2006. Last year 7 of the 8 alliances at Great Lakes included a former world finalist or world champion. But alas, no 1114 this year.

Different regionals will be known for different things, and remember it isn't all about the robots.

History has been known to repeat itself. But I don't think the highest score will come from Great Lakes, my guess it the West Coast.

[MasterChief 573]

Has anyone even mentioned GLR? There is alot of power in that regional just like in previous years. 33, 469,70, 65, 66, 67, 573, 503, 1015, 47, 279. 451, 1023. Deffinately a regional to keep an eye on.

[efoote868]

I predict that there will be a total of 4 100+ matches in the regular season.
The highest score will be at IRI, and will be 136.

Actually, I have no idea. But whatever.

Originally Posted by jgannon

Take a fast lap bot like 148, and two beastly hurdlers. Let's say that they can manage to knock down both balls in hybrid and cross twelve lines (roughly a lap each... odds are that one will go farther, and another will get hung up on another robot). They start driver control with 64 points. Despite the field congestion, 148 clocks a lap every ten seconds, netting them 24 points. The other two bots score a remarkable eleven hurdles and crosses... and they finish with 198 points. This would require an unbelievable alignment of the cosmos just to score that many points. On top of that, as these bots are hurtling around the field, they'd better hope they don't rear-end somebody hurdling for the other alliance, or they're out another ten points.

Take 2 fast herding lap bots and one efficient shooter bot like 118. Going with the same assumption that both balls are knocked down during hybrid and 12 lines are managed, 64 pts will be scored in auto. Then, 118 will camp out in its own home stretch while the 2 herders bring balls around to it. Every half lap for the herders, 118 will get a hurdle. If the herders manage 8 laps each, that's 16 hurdles for 128 pts, plus 32 pts for the laps.

Grand total of 224 points.

[JackN]

Week 1
Average Winning Score (Qualifying): ~50
Average Losing Score (Qualifying): ~35

Average Winning Score (Elimination): ~65
Average Losing Score (Elimination): ~40

At Midwest, QF 1 the winning score will be ~90 points (I expect this to be the high score for the week)

I would also argue that Granite State will be the best representation of this years game, based on the depth of the field, with NJ and Midwest hot on their tail.

[Paul Copioli]

The scores in this thread are grossly too high (for the most part). This is no different than any other year. We all are way too optimistic on the average score. The average winning score during qualifying in week 1 will be around 20 - 24 points.

This year's game is like 2005 in that the team who reverts to defense will lose the majority of the time. The offensive teams will counter defense with laps and the defensive teams will not be able to catch up.

Time will tell, but I just don't see how an overall defensive strategy can prevail in this year's game.

[hipsterjr]

I expect good things from Florida regional this year. Keep an eye out week 3

[Wayne TenBrink]

In 2007, the week 1 median qualifying score for all alliances (winners & losers combined) was below 10. The mean score was around 20. There were a few matches with huge scores, but a lot more with zeroes. By Week 5, the scores were much higher (the median at the West Michigan Regional was around 30).

I know this year's game is totally different, but these matches are two of the fastest minutes around. Nothing goes as smoothly on the field as it does in your mind. Getting control of the ball is going to be tough. Any machine that needs more than a few seconds and/or a stationary ball for pickup will be hurting - even without defenders. Add defenders to the mix (their job will be to keep the opponents ball moving so they can't pick it up- not to impede the robot once it has the ball) and there will be a lot of robots that never score a hurdle.

I think the scenarios for a 60-100 point match sound entirely reasonable. You will see some of those, but the average qualifying match will be a fraction of that.

[Justin Montois]

Im going to try and quickly run through what I think will be a good alliance score.

Robot-------------Hybrid---------------------------------------Teleoperated--------------------Endgame
Redabot 1-------1 Line(4pts)----------------------------------3 Hurdles, 4 Laps (32pts)---------------N/A
Redabot 2-------1 Trackball, 2 Lines (16pts)-------------------3 Hurdles, 3 Laps (30pts)-------------Place(12pts)
Redabot 3-------1 Line (4pts)---------------------------------5 Laps (10pts)-------------------------N/A
Totals-------------24pts------------------------------------------72pts----------------------------12pts

Grand Total
108

I don't think it's that unreasonable, you might see a hundred point match at every regional.

[GaryVoshol]

Originally Posted by Wayne TenBrink

In 2007, the week 1 median qualifying score for all alliances (winners & losers combined) was below 10. The mean score was around 20. There were a few matches with huge scores, but a lot more with zeroes. By Week 5, the scores were much higher (the median at the West Michigan Regional was around 30).

I know this year's game is totally different, but these matches are two of the fastest minutes around. Nothing goes as smoothly on the field as it does in your mind. Getting control of the ball is going to be tough. Any machine that needs more than a few seconds and/or a stationary ball for pickup will be hurting - even without defenders. Add defenders to the mix (their job will be to keep the opponents ball moving so they can't pick it up- not to impede the robot once it has the ball) and there will be a lot of robots that never score a hurdle.

I think the scenarios for a 60-100 point match sound entirely reasonable. You will see some of those, but the average qualifying match will be a fraction of that.

Right. Despite all the memories of 128+ matches last year, how many remember the multitude of matches with scores like 6-2, 8-0, etc.? Where 16 or 20 points seemed like a lot?

[Daniel_LaFleur]

Originally Posted by Borromakkot

Because the New England region is known much more for effective defense, something that leads to lower scores overall. Just because we play effective defense doesn't mean that each robot or alliance can't score as much as in the Midwest, or even the West Coast side of things.

I'm not complaining, our alliance last year needed to have a high scorer (987 from Las Vegas) and an effective defender (177 from Connecticut).

Just to back up what you said here.

BAE held the highest scoring match until week 5 with 312 points (in a semi-final no less).

We may be known for some brutal defense, but we are by no means weak on offense either.