Predictions: A cynical view of reality

[Wayne TenBrink]

I found the prediction I was looking for. It was one of Nostradarmous’s quatrains:

Nations tremble as the six tribes clash!
The hourglass runs out on the inert sphere, as three tribes clutch in vain.
The children from the clan of the wooden shoe steal it away in haste.
Victory is seized as the ramparts are breached in rapid succession!

[JesseK]

Originally Posted by CraigHickman

Well, normally I keep my opinions to myself, but I figure it would be fun to other's opinions on this.

Here's my prediction of the winning robot (winning being winning the most matches, and winning champs): We're going to see a low, small robot that can pick up the ball and throw it. It's going to be the simplest bot imaginable; a simple single or dual pneumatic (or other fast reloading mechanical) catapult, and a kitbot drive base. It's going to be FAST, both in robot max speed and driver to robot relations. It's going to have a very small, simple setup to knock down the ball, and the rest of the match will be spent hurdling the ball over the overpass, and running laps.

What we're NOT going to see: An enormous, beautifully engineered arm that can grab from any angle, pick the ball up, and get it over the pass. However wonderful these bots may be, they're just too shaky and too precise. We're not going to see an elevator, either. Any design that involves stopping, and lifting over will be weeded out before the finals on Einstein. We're going to see some of these huge arm-bots do very well, but in the end, it's going to be those low, fast throwers who will take champs.

Any thoughts on the winning bot design?

You speak of ONE bot of the 3 in the winning alliance. You speak of ONE scenario, an ideal scenario, where everything moves perfectly, no one has figured out nuance-style or guerilla-warfare defenses, and no one has figured out high-scoring combos that utilize several aspects of the game that shooters have difficulty with. Well lemme tell ya, I have and our drivers will be prepared. We have an elevator. We have forklifts and a curved "pouncing' bar that captures and kicks the ball. You didn't design it, but we did, with several considerations. Many other teams have similar but different designs. Just because you don't see the light doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

The good news is, I won't tell you you're wrong; the competitions in the coming weeks probably will.

[Kellen Hill]

This thread is based on a prediction, and I think it is wrong of you to call somebody close-minded for making a prediction and stating their own opinion. This thread is also not about the alliance that will do the best and win nationals, it is about the single robot that will do the best in the competition.

[Aren_Hill]

What this thread was about was not "which" alliance will win the most, it was a prediction as to what robot style would lead the field, as 25 did in 2006, and many bots did last year. He's predicting the bot style that will lead almost any alliance it ends up in qualification or elimination, to victory.

thats what this thread is about

[Pelicano234]

Well, normally I keep my opinions to myself, but I figure it would be fun to other's opinions on this.

Here's my prediction of the winning robot (winning being winning the most matches, and winning champs): We're going to see a low, small robot that can pick up the ball and throw it. It's going to be the simplest bot imaginable; a simple single or dual pneumatic (or other fast reloading mechanical) catapult, and a kitbot drive base. It's going to be FAST, both in robot max speed and driver to robot relations. It's going to have a very small, simple setup to knock down the ball, and the rest of the match will be spent hurdling the ball over the overpass, and running laps.

What we're NOT going to see: An enormous, beautifully engineered arm that can grab from any angle, pick the ball up, and get it over the pass. However wonderful these bots may be, they're just too shaky and too precise. We're not going to see an elevator, either. Any design that involves stopping, and lifting over will be weeded out before the finals on Einstein. We're going to see some of these huge arm-bots do very well, but in the end, it's going to be those low, fast throwers who will take champs.

Any thoughts on the winning bot design?

We designed out robot so we are able to block shooters. I think that will give us a slight advantage over other arm bots.

[Koko Ed]

An opinion is worth it's weight. Nothing more.
In a couple of days we'll find out how things really go down and by the end of the season that will be proven to be a myth as well as teams change their strategies by the championship. And the game will be played completely different from week 1.
It happens all the time in FIRST.

[JesseK]

Originally Posted by hill

This thread is based on a prediction, and I think it is wrong of you to call somebody close-minded for making a prediction and stating their own opinion. This thread is also not about the alliance that will do the best and win nationals, it is about the single robot that will do the best in the competition.

Originally Posted by Aren_Hill

What this thread was about was not "which" alliance will win the most, it was a prediction as to what robot style would lead the field, as 25 did in 2006, and many bots did last year. He's predicting the bot style that will lead almost any alliance it ends up in qualification or elimination, to victory.

thats what this thread is about

Aye, this thread is about opinions. My post is not meant to be derrogatory. I tried to write it in the same tone as the original; my apologies for not keeping particular parts of my opinion to myself, which will be edited.

My post stated a direct opinionated argument against his opinion. The original opinion was precisely about what winning alliance we'll see on Einstein in Atlanta, and it was all stated very clearly and directly: all bots other than shooters bot will be "weeded out" before Einstein. It seems very based upon what's been seen in videos, whereas many teams who have succeeded with spectacular elevators/arms may not have had time or resources to take a video. If you can't imagine a 'spectacular' lift, well, I can't exactly help you there. However, maybe the videos in later weeks can.

[EricH]

Originally Posted by JesseK

It seems very based upon what's been seen in videos, whereas many teams who have succeeded with spectacular elevators/arms may not have had time or resources to take a video. If you can't imagine a 'spectacular' lift, well, I can't exactly help you there. However, maybe the videos in later weeks can.

Or, they choose not to make a video or post pictures at all. Some teams are like that--secrecy until the end, unless all chance of secrecy is gone. So you don't know what is coming at you until it arrives.

I think this whole discussion is moot, as we'll find out the Week 1 standards starting Thursday, Week 2 standards the next Thursday, Week 3 standards... you get the picture. Strategies change week to week or even day to day/match to match.

The only prediction I'm going to make is that both shooters and arms will be valuable, and both will be in the finals at virtually every event.

[hipsterjr]

This and other threads have been reduced to:.. "shooters are better" ..."no, arms are better"..."no shooters".

Lets just wait two days and see what happens.

[Ian Curtis]

Originally Posted by JesseK

You speak of ONE bot of the 3 in the winning alliance. You speak of ONE scenario, an ideal scenario, where everything moves perfectly, no one has figured out nuance-style or guerilla-warfare defenses, and no one has figured out high-scoring combos that utilize several aspects of the game. Well lemme tell ya, I have and our drivers will be prepared. We have an elevator. We have forklifts and a curved "pouncing' bar that captures and kicks the ball. You didn't design it, but we did. Many other teams have similar but different designs. Just because you don't see the light doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

Way to be closed-minded. The good news is, I don't have to tell you you're wrong; the competitions in the coming weeks will.

A good launching robot (especially one that launches on-the-fly) is faster at scoring than a good elevator. At the very least the elevator has to stop at the overpass and retract their elevator to go under*. A launcher doesn't have to waste that time. So, I don't see how an elevator can possibly beat a launcher when it comes to the speed of actually scoring. You can have a better mechanism for pickup, but still, I'm guess that they're are launching robots that have similar or better pickup styles.

And sure, you can play guerilla warfare with the ball (as I too have thought about this, and this'll be where the game gets nasty) but so can the launcher, who when it comes down to it is faster at scoring.

However, as is always true there will be a great range of launchers (from very good to very bad) just as there will be in armed robots (from very good to very bad). However, if we're playing in a perfect world (and Einstein is second only to IRI in terms of perfection) then I can't see how an elevator can outscore a launcher. And as I said, you can play tricks with the ball. There are plenty of tricks to be played. But if you can use them, so can the other guy. And once you've used them once, the cat's out of the bag.

However, if you ask me, I can define the make or break aspect of week 1 in a single word Autonomous. If you get a breakaway score then, no one is going to catch up to you. And yes, I meant autonomous. I think relying on Hybrid is simply too risky.

*It's been brought to my attention that at least one team doesn't need to retract, and there are probably others of you out there. But they aren't anywheres near the general case. While the Killer Bee's have done it, and maybe a few other teams worldwide, launching on the fly seems to be far more common place.

[Brandon Holley]

I have just spent like 20 minutes reading EVERYONEs post in this thread, like others, i see a lot of well shooter can do this....and arms can do that...and my team has done this...and this team has done that...

The goal of this thread was to predict what was going to happen.

In my honest opinion, if we have simply 1 shooter vs. 1 arm, the shooter is going to win. However, this isn't goign to happen because we have 4 other robots on the field who are shooters/arms/herders/racers/younameits. While I feel shooters 1 on 1 will be more effective, the alliance is where games are won and loss.

If you ask me, the best alliance you can have is 1 of each of these main categories (arms/shooters/racers). I think while these threads are fun, a lot of the time they should jsut be left as fun. Wait until you see what is going on at teh week 1 regionals. Chances are it will be different than what every one of us is thinking. You will see shooters do well, some will do extremely well, however you will see shooters do very poorly as well. You will see arms do well, some will do extremely well, however you will see arms do very poorly also. FIRST always balances itself out. Well made robots, good strategy, and a bit of luck...as always, the keys to success.

[Sunshine]

I still believe that the best alliance will be the teams that work off of each others strengths. I also believe that a team who keeps one robot (either a great launcher or lifter) in their zone while the other two robots bring the balls back will win.

I believe that this alliance will be made up of 3 robots that can do it all. They will knock down both balls during autonomous, they will put the balls back on the rack at the end of the match and will knock down at least one competitor's ball backwards so no points are scored at the end of the match.

The best defense will be a great offense.

Originally Posted by JesseK

You didn't design it, but we did, with several considerations. Many other teams have similar but different designs. Just because you don't see the light doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

The good news is, I won't tell you you're wrong; the competitions in the coming weeks probably will.

Ad Hominem, much? Honestly, it was a prediction, and we didn't really need to get hostile about it all. If my phrasing was a little harsh, it was forewarned by the word "cynical" being present in the title.

I have had experience with arm systems. I have worked and spoken to some of the best ones. I've spent time analyzing this game. After all that, it has become my OPINION (not fact!) that shooters will be able to outscore an arm any day.

Originally Posted by Aren_Hill

What this thread was about was not "which" alliance will win the most, it was a prediction as to what robot style would lead the field, as 25 did in 2006, and many bots did last year. He's predicting the bot style that will lead almost any alliance it ends up in qualification or elimination, to victory.

thats what this thread is about

Yes! Thanks!

The whole point of this thread was to not address the alliance factor (we all KNOW that it's an alliance that will win, why stress over it?), but in stead to address what kind of robot will lead the field (just as 25 did in 06) by taking the most wins, and being known as the most fearsome bot.

[s_forbes]

I agree with the the thought that, all other things the same, a shooter will be faster than an arm bot. There is that small smidgen of time that they gain by not having to stop at the overpass.

This small advantage may not seem like much, but it opens up a unique strategy that I haven't seen anyone go for yet (though I'm still holding out for 1114!). Basically, if you launch the ball properly (as in lots of backspin) you can get it to slow enough when it bounces to be easy to retrieve again. If it's done properly, you could even get the ball to bounce back into your robot. This completely bypasses any time that would be taken to retrieve the ball again, which seems like it will be a major issue!

I was hoping more teams would realize this strategy and go for a bounce catch, but then again we haven't seen everyone's robot yet.

[Koko Ed]

One thing to remember: Just because it works well in the shop doesn't mean it's going to translate to on field dominance. There are far to many variables out there that cannot be duplicated in the shop that teams are going to have to face on the fly. From tenacious opponents who make strategies specifically designed to stop you to alliance partners who barely work or have not a single clue of what they are doing bd are more of a hindrance than a help. Being able to deal with these variables are what separate the strong from the also ran.