Predictions Week 1: First lap for Overdrive

[pakratt1991]

We have no poopper thing to toss the ball over, sorry =[ although we did look in to it.

but yeah how could you forget us?

[Madison]

We're excited to see the rest of the competition down here in Portland. We're really proud of the machine sitting in the box down there, so hopefully it'll do good things for us.

Good luck, everyone

[Andrew Schreiber]

Originally Posted by ICanCountTo19

WOW nice analysis man, I'm just looking forward to see how the game will be played.

There are a couple key moments and I'm curious to see how important they will be.
The amount of laps in hybrid mode

Are teams just going to make it half way around and run into the robots that don't have a hybrid? If so, is the 8 pts they've gotten really significant

Final placing

Will doing another lap and hurdle out weigh the cost of placement? similar to how some robots negated enough points with spoilers that the lift didn't always matter

What will be the most annoying call?

last year it was the ramp on the tubes, this year...possibly the hitting the ground first before counting for some robots...

What will be the most important factor?

Hybrid, tele-operated, early, mid, late, or all?

Looking forward to seeing the answers tomorrow Good Luck in 08

Amount of laps in hybrid, my prediction, unless you have some way of seeing other robots and avoiding them don't even try to go to the far side. Ok, just for fun lets see how many you can do,lets assume 15 fps (its a nice number I know the multiples of) down the field from start to the other end lets call 50 ft so minimally 3.3 seconds. Now if you try to take that turn at 15 fps you better have some low Cg otherwise I see someone taking out the driver station. Let us just say 2 seconds for that time maybe someone can do it in 1 but most teams won't. so right now, 5.3 seconds for 1/2 a lap. 10.6 for 1 lap so my prediction, 1.5 laps on an unobstructed field.

For 397 the lap and hurdle is worth more than the place, it depends on the team. Arms will be able to place better than a shooter. I am seeing teams passing the ball back across the line after they hurdle it so that an alliance robot can place.

Most annoying call? For shooters it is going to be the ball touching something else, not a problem for us because of where we shoot from and the speed the ball ends up going at. But for some shooters it may be a problem. For arms? Remember Tetras? 8lb ball 7 feet in the air is dangerous. I hope they call teams on it. I don't want to see anyone get hurt.

Hybrid will be important, but I think hurdling will be more important. That is 10 points a lap. But the crucial factor in how effective a team is will be how fast can they hunt down that ball and get a hold of it.



And btw, very nice analysis. I concur that 503 has the potential to be very good. 2005 the looked amazing.

[neshera]

We're honored to be mentioned, and hope to fulfill your prediction.
Thank you!

[Simon Strauss]

I agree with the comments earlier that placing the ball on the over pass for the end of the match will quickly be found to be a useless strategy for most teams. Those able to hurdle quickly will rather do so and try to play some last minute defense on their opponents.


-Simon Strauss

[Laaba 80]

When you listed the power teams for the Midwest regional you forgot to mention 1114.
Joey

[MasterChief 573]

Originally Posted by 65_Xero_Huskie

Hehe
GO frog force!
These guys have been known to us to be the biggest underdog at competitions.
Last year in Atlanta, we picked them for our ramp bot, and doing so in 8th seed getting our top pick, this was the reason we got so far. They are consistently a good robot and always make a presence. I will put money down on them 50:1 that they will be in the championship match in Midwest.

You guys were at GLR, you know where the magic is at. 503 consistently proves to be one of the most reliable teams around and are definitely guys you want on your side. It was a pleasure working with them and 1015 at GLR and we hope to be able to do so this year as well. GO FROG FORCE!

[Jimmy Cao]

Originally Posted by Laaba 80

When you listed the power teams for the Midwest regional you forgot to mention 1114.
Joey

1114 was mentioned. =D

Good luck to all teams!

[Looking Forward]

Sorry about the mistakes, I fixed most of them after they were pointed out. Especially with Suffield, I wasn't able to watch it personally, but I got tips from people that I must have mixed up in my head. Next week should be better.

Anyway, a little bit of friday night update. Due to the fact that Oregon, BAE, and St. Louis weren't webcast, I wasn't able to watch them, but based on what we've seen from Jersey and Chicago, the game is playing out much like expected.
Penalties, particularly crossing back across the line is costing many teams matches. It's probably the biggest individual factor so far.
Hybrid is proving to be where games can be won or lost, in a number of ways. An average hybrid mode gets you a mild advantage over none, but having an excellent (especially if you have two very good ones on alliance) means almost instant victory. More than half of the points from the 100 point match in NJ were scored in hybrid. There are also a number of penalties from some of the faster teams starting to be racked up, namely 1114 who's now carrying a yellow card for hybrid ramming. 48 has been the most notable hybrid defender, but it'll be interesting to see if they start to get called on impeding penalties, especially if a team like 1114 or 1024 hits them with more than 6 seconds left (thus signaling to pass).
Aside of a couple exceptions, most of the teams attempting to pick up with forks or prongs are struggling mightily. Acquisition is proving, as expected, to be the primary challenge for scoring with the track ball for most teams.
Removing the balls from the overpass has been spotty at best, but some teams are starting to become better at it.
Judging by the rankings, we got some Deja Vu(-ee) in St. Louis. Just like in 2007, 148 is the undefeated #1 seed right now, but 1444 is refusing to go away, and is currently the undefeated #2. Based on the rankings 217 and 45 are still major factors as well. Could we see a bit of repeat from last year or will the martians or BoB (both seem to be doing well) get in the finals mix?
More than anything, this game is shaping up to be very alliance based, making it next to impossible for any single team to rule the field without at lest minimal help from their partners. All three 100+ point matches have involved significant efforts (whether in lap, hybrid, or hurdling form) from all three partners. 1114 has been the strongest so far, but even they have two losses. Many lap runners are fairing very well (see 148), but of the matches I've seen it's typically because a vast majority of hurdlers are so close in ability that an exceptional lap runner makes a huge difference.

Based on the two events I've seen, here's my predictions for tomorrow.
NJ:
The Cybersonics are crushing the field in Jersey at the moment. 25 has done well, but is clearly mortal. There aren't many teams above 25 though, and given their history with 103, it still appears that they are the likely candidate for the top selection tomorrow. 103 is by far the favorite for gold, regardless of their top selection.

Midwest:
1114 may have two losses, but the Simbots are clearly the best. If they're not back in the #1 spot by noon tomorrow, they'll be picked first. Of the teams currently above them, I don't see them saying yes to their selection to anyone other than 1625 though. Winnovation is likely also on top on their pick list, despite their troubles this morning. 16, 71, 1024, and 33 are most likely towards the top of their list as well. Given the strength of the field, the Simbots will need a strong partner to win. 1114 has the best chance to win, but I don't see Midwest finishing without either 71 and/or 111 in the finals.

[Jimmy Cao]

Thanks for your predictions! They've very interesting.

From watching midwest on the webcast, I'd say that you seem right on the money with those. With elimination matches coming today, the battle will sure be heated.

Good luck!

[clydefrog88]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

48 has been the most notable hybrid defender, but it'll be interesting to see if they start to get called on impeding penalties, especially if a team like 1114 or 1024 hits them with more than 6 seconds left (thus signaling to pass).

Actually according to this Team Update 2 (http://www.usfirst.org/uploadedFiles...Update%202.pdf) the bump to pass and impeding traffic flow rules are only in effect during teleoperated.

[jayjaywalker3]

I read this really late but its nice being the unnoticed underdog at the NJ regional. Well according to this thread anyway because I don't really know anything about how are team is perceived or how we have done in the past. If only our robot hadn't completely broken down in the second semifinals match we would have at least made those elimination rounds much more exciting. When I chose team 1279 and team 2016 for our alliance I had no idea of how they did in years past. It was wholly based on information from the practice matches and the qualifiers.