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Predictions Week 2: Slamming on the Brakes
Sorry for getting this out so late, but I was in transit to my regional this weekend.
Week 1 gave us higher scores than just about anyone expected, but I don't see that trend continuing into week 2. Many fewer of FIRST's juggernauts are on display this weekend, meaning for lower scores, more focused defense, and likely more defensive penalties given the difficulty of effective defense in this game. Hopefully we'll see a reduction in the amount of <G22> (line crossing) infractions this weekend, but none of these teams [that I could find] competed week 1 so I don't see these penalties going down much. There will be some bright spots though, and the elimination rounds at these competitions have the potential for some great matches. Without further ado onto the PREDICTIONS: ARIZONA: This regional packs some punch at the top, but the depth is questionable at best. Twenty-one of the fifty-two teams have numbers over 2000, but only thirteen are under 1000. An upper crust of teams are likely to rule over most of the matches, which means we'll likely see several blow-outs. How many teams are good enough that they decide to retire their number? I can only think of one, the Gila Monsters (64). After winning more awards than any other team has ever won in one season (in 2005), 64 opted to retire their number and resume competing in 2006 under the number 39. The GM Desert Proving Grounds team is not too be trifled with, and they are the reigning champs of the Arizona regional. The 39th Aero Squadron's bot is another of the low-profile shooter stock, with some sort of akerman/car steering system and curved prong loading (similar to 71). They look to call up the success of 71 and 103 from the previous weekend, and should minimally be playing well into the afternoon. 39 isn't the only bot with the low-profile shooter design in Arizona though. 125 is coming all the way from Boston with a similar style to join the fray. 1726 has shown an impressive shooting machine as well, and has been one of the highest profile versions of the design on Delphi so far. Both teams should be competitive and will be in the eliminations if they don't hit mechanical issues. Kingman is one of the most storied teams in FIRST, and I have little doubt that 60 will continue their tradition of success in 2008. This five time regional champion paired up with 39 last year to win Arizona, and was in the finals here the year before. Look for a strong outing by these AZ natives and for them to be leaving with some form of hardware. Quote:
VCU: Despite this regionals massive (63 teams) size, none of them are considered among the national elite. Several of them have had success at the championship level one year or another (435 even has a championship banner), but none do it consistently. Expect for the level of play to be similar to what we saw last week in Jersey, with a lot of stale qualifications, but enough competitive teams to make some interesting eliminations. 122 is one of the most storied veterans in the Mid-Atlantic, but has fallen on a bit of rough times the last couple years (although they somehow found a way to the Newton finals in '06 for reasons that still amaze me). Their four sportsmanship awards are no coincidence either, 122 is one of the class-act teams in FIRST. The NASA Knights are likely to be a solid competitor at VCU this year, and I fully expect them to be in the mix after lunch after saturday. Hawai'i Five-One-Oh (510) won't be the only Hawai'i themed team at VCU this year, as 359 is actually making the journey all the way from Hawai'i to play Overdrive in Virginia. The Hawai'in Kids have clearly borrowed a page from 254's (very successful) design book with their 2008 machine, and their robot appears to be poised to compete. Claw based manipulators haven't had a great amount of success yet, but given the relative strength of the other teams at VCU, 359 should be able to produce a solid outing. It will take a great deal of help for them to get further than the Semis though. Last year VCU was stunned to see some full blown collaboration when the Henrico triad rolled into town. Last year's regional winner, 540 broke away from the triad in '08 (and built a very interesting machine of their own). 384 and [newly renamed] 1086 have continued this collaboration though, and have produced another set of quality machines. Sparky and Blue Cheese have also created low-profile catapults with extending knocker-bars and two-prong herding mechanisms. Unlike many of their cousins, this pair sports a Mecanum drive. We'll see if they can summon the luck of 103 or if they'll be out early like 1425. My money says that one of them brings home a medal of some form. 435 is pretty easily the most decorated team in VCU history. Aside of an off-year in 2007, the Robodogs have dominated Richmond. I think they'll rebound from a disappointing 2007 season with a very strong outing in Overdrive. Watch for 435 to fight for the top spot, and I doubt they'll be around after the first few picks. This regional also has a bit of a youth movement, with several younger teams having strong efforts the past few years. 1610, 1731, and 1885 will all be playing Saturday afternoon, and at least one of them will be in the finals. KANSAS CITY: Due to a lack of time, and mainly, a lack of information, KC is going to have to take one for the team. I hardly know any of these teams, and none of my sources knows much more. The lowest numbered team is 476, and only six teams are under 1000. Expect for this young regional to have low scores and lots of lap bots (or failed hurdlers turned lap bots). 1730 is my current favorite to win the event. These guys and gals were solid last year, and their website shows off a competitive-looking bot. Their "mortar" will likely launch their bot over the rest of the competition. 925 also looks like they can compete. Their roller-claw lift coupled with their mecanum drive is likely to lead them to contention. I expect them to be playing during the semifinals at least. FINGER LAKES: Finger Lakes actually has several great teams, and even with only 40 teams attending, might be the deepest regional of week 2 to to bottom. Canada seems to have vanished, with the GM Spartonics (1503) the lone representative. I can count the amount of teams with 4-digit numbers who have made it to Einstein on my hands, but 1126 has done it twice. Sparx is a dominant young team, that doesn’t look to relent. Expect them to be playing late in Saturday afternoon, and they have as strong a chance to win FLR gold as anyone. 229 is the most well-known of the upstate New Yorkers coming out to play this weekend, and for good reason. Division by Zero builds some pretty serious robots, and has a serious chance at taking home a big blue banner. I don’t see 229 making an early exit. It looks like GM decided to come play in Rochester this year, with three of the best-known Michigan teams attending. 65, 67, and 68 are all competing at FLR this weekend. All three will easily make the eliminations, most likely as first round selections. HOT’s bot looks impressive, but I don’t know if it’s on-par with their 2004, 2005, or 2007 efforts. Regardless, I think HOT will be a top contender. At least one of these teams will be in the finals, guaranteed. The Miracle Workerz look to compete for the first time since joining the hall of fame, and their robot looks to be cut from a similar stock to some of the competitive teams (such as 126) from last weekend. It does have some pretty significant differences though, namely that it has more movements in their scoring device, which could either spell an advantage or extra time required to hurdle. 365 will be a upper-echelon team, but I don’t see them exiting with a championship trophy. A couple from the informants: Quote:
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San Diego: San Diego is the most interesting regional of the weekend, with many of the western powers coming out to play for the first time. 50 teams, split pretty evenly by age (roughly 1/3 of the regional <1000, and 1/3 >2000) should lead to a healthy mix of robots. Several powerful teams will be ruling the top, but there's a definite second level that will give them some heat. While the Cheesy Poofs and Pink typically get the mentions when people talk about elite NASA teams, 330 is often an afterthought. The Beachbots are not only one of the NASA elite, they are one of the cream of the crop in FIRST. Their entry for Overdive is no different. Many consider their 2007 bot the best of ’07 because of its speed, efficiency, simplicity, and full functionality. Well this robot is 33% faster, every bit as clean and efficient, and can once again compete in every aspect of the game. Beyond that, their driver is one of the best, if not the very best, in FIRST. He’s driven them onto Einstein twice, and won it all in 2005. If you doubt the capabilities of arms in Overdrive, look no further than this beautiful blue and yellow machine. 330 will be taking home a medal from San Diego, no doubt about it. Quote:
It would have taken one heck of a High Roller to bet on 987 to win the Championship last year, but that’s exactly what they did. The High Rollers won’t be letting Southern California off the hook either, and I expect this machine to be every bit as competitive as their 2006 and 2007 entries. There are a few rumors drifting around that these guys have started working with a certain other inland southwest power, and after this weekend we’ll know how high the Bulldogs can roll. 987 should be a first-round selection, if not a captain themselves. Their partners and their opponents will govern how far they can go. Quote:
Some from the tipsters: Quote:
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Last edited by Looking Forward : 05-03-2008 at 23:53. |
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