Looking Back: Week 3

[Looking Forward]

Three weeks of Overdrive are completed, and the game and competitors are starting to take shape. At almost every event there are a number of alliances capable of winning (look no further than Florida, Connecticut, VCU, Chicago, or Hartford for proof), and it can become very difficult for one team to dominate. Even the best of the best have lost matches. 987 has two losses, 1114 and 968 have three, 217* has four (and a tie), 1024* has ten. There have been instances of domination though, such as 39 in Arizona, 103 in New Jersey, and 1124 in Connecticut. Additionally, 217 and 1024 have already picked up two regional championships, and both teams will be competing once more before Atlanta.
Week 3 was a week where teams could attempt to emerge from the pack as leaders, or stumble back into the fray. The Thunderchickens were the biggest winners in week 3, cementing their spot as one of the top teams for Overdrive so far. 217 won Detroit, their second gold of the year already, including a win in the finals (with the aid of a strong 469) over Rush and Chief Delphi. 27, 47, and 469 also tossed their hats into the rings in Detroit, displaying excellent machines.

The wildest team was 27. Team RUSH was not Rock Solid, having problems all day on Friday, yet they still managed to get the number two seed (and missed the number one seed by .4 Ranking Points). On Saturday they put on a clinic on how to be amazing. In their second match of the day, they were able to hurdle 4 times and beat 217 and knock 217 out of the top spot. They picked 47 for eliminations and went to work. They were plagued with problems all throughout eliminations, breaking their pickup system and breaking a drive shaft.

Detroit also had some of the most intense elimination matches this year. Based on the eliminations from Detroit, Connecticut, Florida, Midwest, and San Diego, Overdrive is showing a lot of promise for action-packed rounds in Atlanta.
Where 217 rose to the challenge, 103 regressed slightly. The Cybersonics obliterated Trenton in week 1, but the depth of the field (especially given 103 poached their biggest threat to become their partner) and lack of defense played on 103 left questions. In Florida these questions were answered, but not in the way the Cybersonics had hoped. 103 lost three times in qualifications (although their first match they had no partners), but still managed to capture the first over-all selection, although this decision was likely influenced (at least in part) by what the #1 seed 108 saw from 103 while competing in Jersey. The 108/103/395 alliance ultimately were defeated in 3 matches in the Semi-finals. During the eliminations, 103 was overwhelmed by tight defense preventing them from acquiring the ball (suddenly 103 looks even more brilliant for selecting 25 in NJ, the Raider Robotix name alone was enough to attract defense away from 103 there), but thanks to some improved play by the Sigma Cats, the alliance was still capable of putting up strong scores. When pitted against the strong one-two punch of 69 and 179 in the SFs, 108 couldn't carry the load though, ultimately dooming the alliance.
233, 1251, and 86 emerged as champs in Florida, going undefeated through the elimination rounds, despite being seemingly sunk in several of them. While they could score some in Hybrid, they were often outclassed. Pink was often greatly hampered by defensive efforts during their elimination run as well. But a very strong double-threat from 233 and 1251 (and help from a few penalties) allowed for the #2 alliance to take home gold.
The Kil-a-Bytes didn't emerge as massive a top-tier team in week 3, but nor did they stumble backwards into the pack. They lost three times in Qualifications (granted one was to 111 and one was to 45), but still managed to secure the top selection from Wildstang. Their elimination alliance broke 100 only once, but only lost once in route to gold. 1024 still has some work left to do in Ohio this weekend if they want to be a favorite to get to Einstein.
The WildHats stepped up in San Jose, with several great matches, earning respect as one of the best in the West. 100 went 9-1 in qualifications, taking the #1 seed and emerging as champs. A shallow field at SVR helped them greatly, as they selected 254 first over-all, despite the many struggles encountered by the Poofs over the week-end. Ignoring the controversy of the third match, 100 was clearly the best team at the event, but we are left to wonder what would have happened to Ballfrog if it were competing in a deeper field. 254 should rebound strongly in Hawai'i from a less than spectacular first outing in 2008. They should at least be on par with 968 by then.
Of all the teams to dominate a regional so far, the Überbots did it in unquestionably the deepest field. Like 103 in NJ, 1124 managed to select their biggest threat (Buzz) to become their partner during the eliminations. 1124 and 175 then teamed up with 716 to take the regional by storm, recording the 2nd highest score of Overdrive (142), and breaking 100 thrice more (102, 104, 122), in the process. Only two of their matches were even within 20 points.
Also, with 177 missing the eliminations, our defending FIRST champs are only making the eliminations in 50% of their competitions (2-4) so far.

*Have attended two events

[Jimmy Cao]

Wow, I love your analysis of this game!

Many teams that I saw this last weekend really impressed me. Of course, 217 did (Thanks guys =D), but there were a huge number of great hurdlers at Detroit.

I wont be surprised to see 27 fully functional at great lakes, where they sure will be a force to be reckoned with.

[nikeairmancurry]

Not to say anything bad about your work, but you didn't put in a information about the great matches in Pittsburgh. Team 375 and 357 showed that they are teams to compete with no matter where you go. 375 going 10-1 in quailfing matches and then taking an alliance with 291 to the finals, where they lost to a great set of teams including 357 and 337. Then you have the speed demons of the event including us team 326 and 537, where both of us ran wild around the track during all of our matches. All of thses robots did make it aleast to the semi-finals.

Hyrid mode was another thing to watch while you were there, there were atleast 5 teams that had a auton or hyrid mode that could get a lap or a ball off the rank with ease.

I'm not sure how many saw the webcast, but i do beleive that about 7 robots from this regional are contenders to win a regional or even contend at atlanta for a spot at Einstien.

[David Guzman]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

233, 1251, and 86 emerged as champs in Florida, going undefeated through the elimination rounds, despite being seemingly sunk in several of them. While they could score some in Hybrid, they were often outclassed. Pink was often greatly hampered by defensive efforts during their elimination run as well. But a very strong double-threat from 233 and 1251 (and help from a few penalties) allowed for the #2 alliance to take home gold.
*Have attended two events

There weren't any penalties in our elimination matches that made a difference on who won the match.

[Freddy Schurr]

What about the Chesapeake Regional?

[MasterChief 573]

Originally Posted by nikeairmancurry

Then you have the speed demons of the event including us team 326 and 537, where both of us ran wild around the track during all of our matches. All of thses robots did make it aleast to the semi-finals.

You mean 573, sorry if we threw you off with the numbers we were throwing up in the stands. You should probably also give a shout out to 1743 and 2544, definitely capable of putting up laps when needed.

[Wayne TenBrink]

Here are some crude statistics through Week 3.

Perhaps someone could get the columns to line up properly (sorry).

Data comes from FIRST. Please let me know if I got something wrong.

Win Q = Median score of the winning alliance in qualifying matches
Lose Q = Median score of the losing alliance in qualifying matches
Max Q = Maximum alliance score in qualifying matches
Win E = Median score of the winning team in elimination matches
Lose E = Median score of the losing alliance in elimination matches
Max E = Max alliance score in an elimination match

Event Week Win Q Lose Q Max Q Win E Lose E Max E
Midwest 1 49 20 112 7143/ 146
Granite 1 53 30 92 82 52 x
NJ 1 42 20 100 74 64 x
St. L 1 56 26 94 82 60 x
Oregon 1 40 16 78 56 38 x
FLR 2 58 34 118 81 51 x
KC 2 40 18 76 44 36 x
VCU 2 41 17 122 54 42 x
AZ 2 36 12 82 55 38 x
SD 2 48 21 120 87 41 x
Det 3 58 30 124 75 54 124
Boiler 3 52 26 100 80 56 104
Ches 3 46 22 98 71 49 90
Conn 3 52 28 98 84 58 142
FLA 3 52 26 102 83 65 116
Pitts 3 47 23 72 62 38 84
SVR 3 (not available)
Wisc 3 42 20 98 72 44 118
Brazil 3 44 23 80 48 22 52

Week 1 1 49 20 x 74 52 x
Week 2 2 41 18 x 55 41 x
Week 3 3 50 25 x 74 52 x

Overall x 48 23 124 73 47 146

The highest overall match score was Finals Match 2 at Detroit:
217/469/440 = 124
27/47/453 = 106

The "average" team number at all events is 1271
The "average" team number in the eliminations is 1149
The "average" team number of winning alliances (week 3 only) is 1033

There is no significant weekly trend toward higher scores through week 3.
Experience helps, but a lot of fairly new teams are having success.

[Looking Forward]

Sorry for not covering each and every regional. I covered the real big storylines of the weekend, but didn't have enough time to dig for enough info to put out interesting reports about the other ones. I don't want to just stick up info you can find on the FIRST (or SOAP/TBA) sites that doesn't really provide insight to what's going on. This isn't to say that there weren't interesting events and great teams at other events. I congratulate all the various regional champions and contenders. I expect to see some strong efforts from the teams attending Chesepeake, Pittsburgh, Brazil, and Peachtree at other events. Especially some of the teams in the 300s who did very well at these events (343, 357, and 375 to be precise).
Week 4 predictions should be up tomorrow night.

[GaryVoshol]

Originally Posted by Wayne TenBrink

Here are some crude statistics through Week 3.

Perhaps someone could get the columns to line up properly (sorry).

Data comes from FIRST. Please let me know if I got something wrong.

Win Q = Median score of the winning alliance in qualifying matches
Lose Q = Median score of the losing alliance in qualifying matches
Max Q = Maximum alliance score in qualifying matches
Win E = Median score of the winning team in elimination matches
Lose E = Median score of the losing alliance in elimination matches
Max E = Max alliance score in an elimination match

Event	Week     Win Q	Lose Q	Max Q	Win E	Lose E	Max E
Midwest	1	49	20	112	7143/	146
Granite	1	53	30	92	82	52 x	
NJ	1	42	20	100	74	64 x	
St. L	1	56	26	94	82	60 x	
Oregon	1	40	16	78	56	38 x	
FLR	2	58	34	118	81	51 x	
KC	2	40	18	76	44	36 x	
VCU	2	41	17	122	54	42 x	
AZ	2	36	12	82	55	38 x	
SD	2	48	21	120	87	41 x	
Det	3	58	30	124	75	54	124
Boiler	3	52	26	100	80	56	104
Ches	3	46	22	98	71	49	90
Conn	3	52	28	98	84	58	142
FLA	3	52	26	102	83	65	116
Pitts	3	47	23	72	62	38	84
SVR	3	(not available)					
Wisc	3	42	20	98	72	44	118
Brazil	3	44	23	80	48	22	52

Week 1	1	49	20	x	74	52 x
Week 2	2	41	18	x	55	41 x 
Week 3	3	50	25	x	74	52 x

Overall    x           48	23	124	73	47	146

The highest overall match score was Finals Match 2 at Detroit:
217/469/440 = 124
27/47/453 = 106

The "average" team number at all events is 1271
The "average" team number in the eliminations is 1149
The "average" team number of winning alliances (week 3 only) is 1033

There is no significant weekly trend toward higher scores through week 3.
Experience helps, but a lot of fairly new teams are having success.

Used "code" and "/code" (in square brackets, not quotes) to format the data. Not the best columns, but I think everyone can figure it out.

[Qbranch]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

1024 still has some work left to do in Ohio this weekend if they want to be a favorite to get to Einstein.

Really gotta fix that autonomous mode...

*note to self:* remember to install auto fire suppression system in robot next year...

-q

[Travis Hoffman]

Originally Posted by nikeairmancurry

Not to say anything bad about your work, but you didn't put in a information about the great matches in Pittsburgh. Team 375 and 357 showed that they are teams to compete with no matter where you go. 375 going 10-1 in quailfing matches and then taking an alliance with 291 to the finals, where they lost to a great set of teams including 357 and 337. Then you have the speed demons of the event including us team 326 and 537, where both of us ran wild around the track during all of our matches. All of thses robots did make it aleast to the semi-finals.

Hyrid mode was another thing to watch while you were there, there were atleast 5 teams that had a auton or hyrid mode that could get a lap or a ball off the rank with ease.

I'm not sure how many saw the webcast, but i do beleive that about 7 robots from this regional are contenders to win a regional or even contend at atlanta for a spot at Einstien.

You tell (him?)! Plus, to my knowledge, absolutely no referee controversies whatsoever, and the mentors' parade before the closing ceremonies was a truly cool and special event. You go, Pittsburgh!

[Protronie]

In defense of 1024... they were still suffering from glitches caused by the fire at MWR... and thru creative reprogramming to work around the issues and the help of 1081 they manage to take home ANOTHER gold. Which ain't too bad in anyones book.
I'm very sure the busy beavers will be hard at work overhauling their nifty little bot. My money is on them bring home a third gold before Champs.

-Protronie said that...

[Protronie]

[quote= 1024 still has some work left to do in Ohio this weekend if they want to be a favorite to get to Einstein.
[/QUOTE]

Originally Posted by Qbranch

Really gotta fix that autonomous mode...

*note to self:* remember to install auto fire suppression system in robot next year...

-q

I think they did their work!
Three regionals, three golds, yep.... 1024 deserves a well earned rest before making it FOUR GOLD in Big A

[daf]

That's the thing about this years game though... Even with strong runs at regional events, it'll be tough at nationals because many teams (even the smaller names), can play the game pretty well. This isn't like other years where if you have a good robot you're guaranteed the win. I think it will depend a lot on luck of alliance members and luck of the draw. As stated in the first post of the thead, some of the bigger name teams are having difficulty securing thier dominance. We'll see what happens though; it's up in the air.

P.S. - my opinion is definately a bit biast due to the fact that I am on one of the smaller name teams that manages to do fairly well (quarters and semis of Great Lakes Regional). But I still believe that from what I've seen, teams are more equal going into games than in previous years, and it takes away the advantage of teams having more resources and also (sadly enough) the teams that have the mentors and engineers do most of the work. (I won't name any team numbers here but there are always a few teams where I hardly even see the students set finger on the bot).

lol long PS but those are my two cents

[Mike Schreiber]

Originally Posted by daf

That's the thing about this years game though... Even with strong runs at regional events, it'll be tough at nationals because many teams (even the smaller names), can play the game pretty well. This isn't like other years where if you have a good robot you're guaranteed the win. I think it will depend a lot on luck of alliance members and luck of the draw. As stated in the first post of the thead, some of the bigger name teams are having difficulty securing thier dominance. We'll see what happens though; it's up in the air.

But if you have a decent robot shouldn't you be guaranteed something. When ranking is up to luck of the draw, and how difficult your opponents are (qualifying points), not how good you are, it is really frustrating to get second seed because of .4 ranking points, when there is no way to add to your opponents score as their has been in the past, and therefore no possible way to get first seed. Yes the randomness does hurt teams who have mentors do all the work and teams with more resources available, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but it also is incredibly discouraging to a team of students who build an incredible robot and are quite competitive but get bad alliances, teams they can't work well with, and (dare I say it) teams that can't do anything (we all know they're out there). That's my frustration with this game, but like you I am biased because of the .4 ranking points we lost by.