Go to Post Difficult? Yeah. Extremely difficult? Some parts. Doable? It's been done. - [more]
Home
Go Back   Chief Delphi > FIRST > General Forum
CD-Media   CD-Spy  
portal register members calendar search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read FAQ rules

 
 
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Prev Previous Post   Next Post Next
  #15   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 30-03-2008, 15:45
XaulZan11's Avatar
XaulZan11 XaulZan11 is offline
Registered User
AKA: John Christiansen
FRC #1732
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Rookie Year: 2006
Location: Milwaukee, Wi
Posts: 1,329
XaulZan11 has a reputation beyond reputeXaulZan11 has a reputation beyond reputeXaulZan11 has a reputation beyond reputeXaulZan11 has a reputation beyond reputeXaulZan11 has a reputation beyond reputeXaulZan11 has a reputation beyond reputeXaulZan11 has a reputation beyond reputeXaulZan11 has a reputation beyond reputeXaulZan11 has a reputation beyond reputeXaulZan11 has a reputation beyond reputeXaulZan11 has a reputation beyond repute
Send a message via AIM to XaulZan11
Re: Suggestion to improve the alliance choosing program

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bongle View Post
Again to go back to the stats I did a few years back, a team's seeding performance in one year is a very poor predictor of its performance in the year following.

Here's a graph:http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/at...6&d=1175831673

On the X axis is a team's seeding performance in 2005. Further left is better. On the Y axis is a team's seeding performance in 2006, lower is better. You'll see about the only thing you can predict is that teams who were top seeds in 2005 tended to not be dead last in 2006. Likewise, teams who did very poorly in 2006 tended to not win the following year (but some did). Past behavior predicting future behavior may work well in humans, but not so much in robotics teams.

The teams that do well year after year are very special cases. Out of the 1500ish active teams in FIRST, people can probably only name 50ish 'power houses' who win year after year after year and never hiccup.
I never said it was a fantastic predictor. I said it was the best. Predicting behavior in humans is very challenging.

The graph that you provide may very well prove that past preformance does predict future behavior. It appears the correlation coefficent would be around .2 or .3 and with a large sample size (around 1,000) I would not be surprised to see the correlation statistically significant. This means that the observed relationship is not due to random varation but because the two samples (results from 2005 and 2006) are in fact related.

Although it is not a perfect correlation or relationship (nearly all relationships in life are not perfect) doesn't mean there is none. It may not be a very strong relationship, but it appears there is one. I cannot think of another relationship (team number, funding...) that is a better predictor than past preformance.


To tie this back into the original topic, there is not perfect predictor for team preformance. Unless someone does a huge multiple regression study and finds a way to predict how teams are (I don't think there is one), the best way is to just randomly assign teams under the perameters (such as time inbetween matches) to ensure the most fair pairings.
Reply With Quote
 


Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
choosing the right driver ilikecheese General Forum 6 20-02-2007 22:49
Best Alliance in the Alliance Era of FIRST Corey Balint General Forum 28 05-09-2006 20:14
Let's improve the wikipedia page about FIRST Bongle General Forum 12 03-05-2006 08:08
Choosing an Encoder for the Drive-train MikeDubreuil Electrical 11 21-10-2004 00:50
FIRST Kickoff - Choosing the Correct Motor archiver 2001 2 23-06-2002 22:16


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:44.

The Chief Delphi Forums are sponsored by Innovation First International, Inc.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © Chief Delphi