Predictions Week 5: The Great Divide

[Akash Rastogi]

Originally Posted by Don Rotolo

I saw 25, I saw 103...and 1114 will eat their lunch. I have seen them, they got everything right this year.

lol

I personally think that 103 would at least have a shot at 1114, I have doubts about the consistency of 25's shooter. Hope they can get that better.

[Optimizer]

Originally Posted by T3_1565

what numbers were you using, if you don't mind me asking

and I am amazed we made the list haha!! not that we shouldn't be there....

Basically, it's what's called a least-squares estimation (also known as maximum likelihood). You apply a basic optimization technique to determine what set of numbers fits the data (all the alliance scores, in qualifiers, for a given competition) the best. "The best" means it gives the lowest sum of the squares of the errors. (Hey - I call my self "Optimizer" for a reason! ).

For an example of an "error" from today's scores, in Q46 247, 1305, and 1565 were teamed up. From previous competitions, I had calculated ratings of 17.41, 10.04, and 25.55, respectively. So I would have expected you folks to score in the neighborhood of 17.41+10.04+25.55 = 53.00 points. You actually scored 88, so I'd say you had a great game. The "error" was 88-53=35 points (which is a fair amount larger than usual - usually, I think 20 is kinda big).

Anyway, if you think in terms of not having those ratings to start with, and SOLVING for them, so as to minimize the sum of the squares of these errors you would get for all the alliances in each qualifying match in the competition, that's what the method does. I know - it's complicated. You end up solving N linear equations in N unknowns, where N is the number of teams (66, in this case). I think it probably gives you a decent guideline for how good a team is, to within (I'm guessing) maybe 3 pts, even though you can come up with all kinds of (legitimate) criticisms - for example, it doesn't account for the value of defense, or how well certain teams might work together.

Like I've said, though - at least it's objective, and it entertains a math guy like myself.

Unfortunately for me, I can't run today's results because I never did manage to install the software I need to run my code on this laptop, it seems like some of the teams have gotten significantly better, and there are 30 teams for which I have no previous ratings at all. I have to settle for seeing the results after the fact.

BTW: 1114 came out with 48.82 in Midwest and 73.06 in Waterloo.

[Emily2177]

525 has one of the best autonomous modes I have seen yet...this and a really good hurdling mechanism make them very difficult to beat. I'm looking forward to seeing how it all plays out in the last seeding matches tomorrow as well as the final rounds.

[vadyr]

Originally Posted by Danny McC

Well one of the team advisors or mentors told us yesturday in the morning that you guys registered yesturday morning.

Shhhh!!! Yes we are going, I just wanted to make it interesting! We can't wait to see what's going to happen down there!

[orion]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

102 was a crowd and CD favorite for their speedy and tiny bot Orion in Jersey. They only won a single match all weekend though, their driving was questionable at best, and their ground clearance so low they often were hung up on the lane divider. They should have a distinct advantage over most other lap runners if they can control their bot though, and they'll once again be playing Saturday afternoon, but I don't think they'll escape the quarter-finals.

I love how stunningly accurate your predictions are... considering team 102 was a regional winner.

[Vikesrock]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

MINNESOTA:
If you thought the Oklahoma City regional was young last weekend, wait until you see Minnesota. Only 9 of the 54 teams played Aim High in 2006, and 30 teams are rookies. They do have a handful of solid machines, but if any two consistent hurdlers pair up, they will likely take the regional by storm.
93 had a very strong outing in Wisconsin, knocking off the 1730/1625/1675 alliance in the Semi-finals, and taking the eventual champions to three matches. NEW Apple Corp should do much of the same in an shallower Minnesota competition. They will likely find themselves in one of the top 4 alliances, and I'd be very surprised if they don't head home with a medal around their neck.
2175 hasn't competed yet in '08, but their hurdling machine should do well in Minnesota. Watch for a decent outing from the Fighting Calculators.
525 is viewed by many as the second best scoring machine in St. Louis during week 1. They gave the #1 alliance a hard run for their money in the Semi-finals, and will likely have another very good performance this weekend. I expect them to be another early selection and be playing late into saturday.
525 and/or 93 will be on the winning alliance when all is said and done.

Not too bad there. 525 and 93 (2 great hurdlers) paired up and stormed through elims without a single loss.

Despite chasing pneumatic gremlins all weekend and some electrical/code problems that limited maneuverability in the elims 2175 managed to be semifinalists which I would consider a solid outing.

That makes 3/3 for MN!

[lasereyes]

Originally Posted by Ricksta121

I'm a drive team coach, they don't eat lunch during competition.

Our drive team did once. They were almost late for quarterfinals.