Offensive Power Rankings for 2008

[IndySam]

Is this data supposed to be your average score or your potential average? What exactly is your number supposed to mean?

[Bongle]

Originally Posted by IndySam

Is this data supposed to be your average score or your potential average? What exactly is your number supposed to mean?

It is an estimate of how many points your teams contributes per match. Note that it isn't simply your total score / 3, but by using the magic of linear algebra, you can solve for something a bit more accurate. It can help weed out robots that simply had good partners, and should be able to discern robots who many not have placed well but still contributed each round.

for some reason, i dont think that ours is right... b/c we have had three hurdles or more in 75% of our matches and it shows that we score about 26 points per match, which w/ three hurdles (including lines) we should be just a little under 30... but of course i dont know what went into the compiling

If you took a substantial number of penalties (1 every couple matches), that'd result in your offensive rating going down. This is because in addition to adding to an alliance score by hurdling, you'd be subtracting from it due to penalties. It's not a perfect number because we don't have an infinite number of matches to base it off of, but it seems to correlate nicely with observed robot performance.

[IndySam]

Originally Posted by Bongle

It is an estimate of how many points your teams contributes per match. Note that it isn't simply your total score / 3, but by using the magic of linear algebra, you can solve for something a bit more accurate. It can help weed out robots that simply had good partners, and should be able to discern robots who many not have placed well but still contributed each round.

Our actual average score was 23.11 for our two regionals including penalties. You have us at 13.585. That's a huge difference.

I also see a couple of teams on your list that I know who's scores are way to high.

As I have said from the beginning the algorithm just won't work unless the penalties are somehow added in. They are just to important to this years game.

[Karthik]

Originally Posted by IndySam

Our actual average score was 23.11 for our two regionals including penalties. You have us at 13.585. That's a huge difference.

I also see a couple of teams on your list that I know who's scores are way to high.

As I have said from the beginning the algorithm just won't work unless the penalties are somehow added in. They are just to important to this years game.

I don't think you're following what Bongle and others are doing. They're not calculating simple averages. They're using basic linear algebra to calculate the average expected value of pure points contributed to the alliance by a single team. This is used by setting up a system of equations which sum to the amount points scored at the regional. Since penalties are already removed from the final scores of all matches, this method takes them into account. The penalties are already "added in". This method is a far more accurate predictor of a team's contribution then just looking at a simple mean. Naturally you team's result is going to be lower than your average score, because this statistic is just looking at your team's contribution.

[IndySam]

Originally Posted by Karthik

I don't think you're following what Bongle and others are doing. They're not calculating simple averages. They're using basic linear algebra to calculate the average expected value of pure points contributed to the alliance by a single team. This is used by setting up a system of equations which sum to the amount points scored at the regional. Since penalties are already removed from the final scores of all matches, this method takes them into account. The penalties are already "added in". This method is a far more accurate predictor of a team's contribution then just looking at a simple mean. Naturally you team's result is going to be lower than your average score, because this statistic is just looking at your team's contribution.

I understand that, what I am saying is that their calculation of my teams expected contribution is no where near my teams actual contribution including subtracting the penalties.

Also I see several teams who's expected contribution is way to high from my experience of their performance this year.

If you guys want this tool to be useful you need to figure out why.

It's just my theory that it can't property calculate the impact of penalties, if you think this theory is wrong then you need to figure out what is causing the figure to be so different than the actual results.

[Karthik]

Originally Posted by IndySam

I understand that, what I am saying is that their calculation of my teams expected contribution is no where near my teams actual contribution including subtracting the penalties.

Also I see several teams who's expected contribution is way to high from my experience of their performance this year.

If you guys want this tool to be useful you need to figure out why.

It's just my theory that it can't property calculate the impact of penalties, if you think this theory is wrong then you need to figure out what is causing the figure to be so different than the actual results.

Mathematically, this method is 100% sound. Whether you see any value in the mathematical model is for you to determine. I'd like to know your mathematical reasoning for why this method doesn't take penalties into account. If all you're relying on is selected cases of anecdotal evidence, your theory holds very little weight with me.

By no means am I suggesting that this model is perfect. From the numbers that Team 1114 has run, there are some definite anomalies. That being said, for the most part this model seems to agree with the specific match data we've collected at three events we attended.

Like with most statistics, the value is all in how you interpret them. If you don't think they're accurate, ignore them.

[IndySam]

Originally Posted by Karthik

Mathematically, this method is 100% sound. Whether you see any value in the mathematical model is for you to determine. I'd like to know your mathematical reasoning for why this method doesn't take penalties into account. If all you're relying on is selected cases of anecdotal evidence, your theory holds very little weight with me.

By no means am I suggesting that this model is perfect. From the numbers that Team 1114 has run, there are some definite anomalies. That being said, for the most part this model seems to agree with the specific match data we've collected at three events we attended.

Like with most statistics, the value is all in how you interpret them. If you don't think they're accurate, ignore them.

I am not a mathematician, I saw numbers that were wrong (not a little wrong, WILDLY wrong) and I posed a theory based on my feeling not on any math.

We are not competing in Atlanta so I have no need for this data, all I am saying some of what I see in spreadsheet is very wrong.

You can ignore it, I don't care.


Edit: I'll still buy you a doughnut in Atlanta.

[Protronie]

All I understand is 1114 has an impressive score...
Which seems to fit their impressive robot.

Nice work... this will make a excellent tool to help newbies .

[Jacob Plicque]

Sumadin
Your latest OPR must have an error (86 1.478877681). All the previous OPR data runs had Team 86 with an OPR between 8.8 and 9.2 points. Our actual average for the Florida Regional was 11.5 points. The difference of over 2 points can be explained by the fact that our 1st match included two no show partners. However, I can not figure out the 10 point difference in your post today

[Bongle]

Originally Posted by Jacob Plicque

Sumadin
Your latest OPR must have an error (86 1.478877681). All the previous OPR data runs had Team 86 with an OPR between 8.8 and 9.2 points. Our actual average for the Florida Regional was 11.5 points. The difference of over 2 points can be explained by the fact that our 1st match included two no show partners. However, I can not figure out the 10 point difference in your post today

Sumadin's included eliminations. It is possible that your alliance partners during eliminations were both scoring below their qualifying performance (which would make sense, given the increased quality of the opposition), and the algorithm 'attributed' that to you. This is why I didn't include eliminations in the ones I ran, they're a whole different beast. It probably isn't a bug in his code, because we both independently developed our own code and our results match, so unless the math foundations we're basing this on are shaky, it's probably an effect of using the finals data.

In other news:

Just to emphasize the quality of OPR as a predictor of who will be playing on Saturday afternoon. Keep in mind, this was a 66 team regional, and predicting 24 robots out of the field is no small feat.

This intrigued me, so I did it for a few more:
GLR: 20/24
Florida: 19/24
VCU: 17/24

So it is a somewhat accurate predictor, but it doesn't take into account that a team's 3rd pick is likely to be a lower-scoring lap bot because of the game only having 2 trackballs. Picking strictly by OPR is a fast way to get eliminated, because you'd probably end up with 3 delicate, relatively slow hurdlers fighting over 2 trackballs, rather than a more-ideal combination of 1 robust lapper/defender and 2 hurdlers.

[MasterChief 573]

Originally Posted by Bongle

Sumadin's included eliminations. It is possible that your alliance partners during eliminations were both scoring below their qualifying performance (which would make sense, given the increased quality of the opposition), and the algorithm 'attributed' that to you. This is why I didn't include eliminations in the ones I ran, they're a whole different beast. It probably isn't a bug in his code, because we both independently developed our own code and our results match, so unless the math foundations we're basing this on are shaky, it's probably an effect of using the finals data.

In other news:

This intrigued me, so I did it for a few more:
GLR: 20/24
Florida: 19/24
VCU: 17/24

So it is a somewhat accurate predictor, but it doesn't take into account that a team's 3rd pick is likely to be a lower-scoring lap bot because of the game only having 2 trackballs. Picking strictly by OPR is a fast way to get eliminated, because you'd probably end up with 3 delicate, relatively slow hurdlers fighting over 2 trackballs, rather than a more-ideal combination of 1 robust lapper/defender and 2 hurdlers.

Can I see the OPR from GLR?

[Bongle]

Originally Posted by MasterChief 573

Can I see the OPR from GLR?

(based on qualifying matches only)

217	50.7032
494	42.5188
27	41.5673
67	40.5394
1718	40.2957
33	38.5823
47	36.6663
469	34.469
326	31.1764
201	29.9324
65	29.6645
862	28.1615
291	24.9495
245	24.7518
70	24.0254
910	23.0301
68	23.0027
107	21.8664
573	20.1932
548	20.0728
66	20.0018
1023	18.233
1998	18.132
1732	17.8759
1747	17.6147
2137	16.5689
503	16.2864
894	16.1329
2676	15.6698
451	15.5634
2612	15.3752
2627	14.1293
2163	13.1382
2050	12.7314
1596	11.5487
1646	11.4519
2591	10.9547
470	9.91908
1015	9.73652
306	9.57384
1701	9.53248
2608	8.05458
830	7.30086
279	7.24847
308	7.11791
226	7.03603
1189	6.30477
1216	5.67063
63	4.94421
123	4.81491
280	4.45936
322	3.07761
1941	2.84981
240	2.57329
2620	2.49713
2224	2.32567
1322	2.18991
2673	0.819399
406	0.778652
2576	-0.147101
461	-0.978711
1549	-2.05435
313	-7.22184

[cziggy343]

do you have one for each regional? b/c if you do, i would like to see palmetto... b/c i never got to see any statistics

[Bongle]

Originally Posted by cziggy343

do you have one for each regional? b/c if you do, i would like to see palmetto... b/c i never got to see any statistics

I have to generate them manually per-regional, so for now I'm going to keep it on a request basis. Enjoy!

Palmetto

845	34.6689
1251	34.1576
343	29.7443
1249	29.2152
342	26.3919
1261	25.5961
1466	22.6852
386	22.5882
1539	21.2896
1746	18.6837
2237	16.7312
2483	16.524
1026	16.3271
1319	16.0827
2187	13.6184
665	12.8638
2430	12.8461
1225	12.8339
2092	12.4018
281	12.147
1758	11.297
1398	8.26199
1102	8.01401
1553	7.85424
1051	7.1118
1876	6.23695
393	5.72104
804	4.95519
1959	4.86179
2362	3.91176
900	2.86289
1293	2.82464
1270	2.02667
1369	0.548534
2425	0.18277
1436	-4.56816

[GBilletdeaux930]

So all i gotta do is say

"Can i see the opr's for the wisconsin regional?"

and they will magically appear a few posts down from this one?