Offensive Power Rankings for 2008

[Bongle]

Originally Posted by sumadin

I was running the TBA data set. It seems that my numbers for GTR match Bongle's so the computation seems to be correct. Is it possible he isn't using elimination round scores? Because that might cause a drop.

Yeah, I didn't use elimination rounds because I feel they kind of distort the results. Playing matches with random robots against random opponents, I think you'll get a better feel for a team's contribution than when they are playing with a self-selected team against the creme de la creme at the regional. Although I guess if you want to take these numbers as scouting pointers rather than for entertainment value, a team's elimination performance is important.

For instance, take 1114 at GTR in the eliminators: they were playing with a team that they founded and they had won 3 regionals with. That team of robots will probably work together much better than a random team in qualifications, and so the scores will be different.

Another thing is that during eliminations, robots steadily get worn down: mechanisms break that can't get repaired in time, batteries slowly get discharged, motors overheat, and so you get things other than the team's competitiveness affecting the scoring level.

Plus, at a shallower regional like at waterloo, you'll end up with things like 1114/2056 against 3 teams who can't even hurdle, and the scores will be ludicrously high.

I don't think you're following what Bongle and others are doing. They're not calculating simple averages. They're using basic linear algebra to calculate the average expected value of pure points contributed to the alliance by a single team. This is used by setting up a system of equations which sum to the amount points scored at the regional. Since penalties are already removed from the final scores of all matches, this method takes them into account. The penalties are already "added in". This method is a far more accurate predictor of a team's contribution then just looking at a simple mean. Naturally you team's result is going to be lower than your average score, because this statistic is just looking at your team's contribution.

Said much better than I ever could.