Offensive Power Rankings for 2008

[Jacob Plicque]

Sumadin
Your latest OPR must have an error (86 1.478877681). All the previous OPR data runs had Team 86 with an OPR between 8.8 and 9.2 points. Our actual average for the Florida Regional was 11.5 points. The difference of over 2 points can be explained by the fact that our 1st match included two no show partners. However, I can not figure out the 10 point difference in your post today

[DonRotolo]

Originally Posted by SlimBoJones

Just to emphasize the quality of OPR as a predictor of who will be playing on Saturday afternoon. Keep in mind, this was a 66 team regional, and predicting 24 robots out of the field is no small feat.

Note that 1676, #1 pick for Alliance #7, was ranked in the high 40's based on win/loss record. Similarly, we were ranked in the 50s in NJ, but were picked for the 8th alliance.

Why? What team in their right mind would choose a team with a 3-5-0 record?

Teams that understand the math behind the scouting, that's who.

Don

[Bongle]

Originally Posted by Jacob Plicque

Sumadin
Your latest OPR must have an error (86 1.478877681). All the previous OPR data runs had Team 86 with an OPR between 8.8 and 9.2 points. Our actual average for the Florida Regional was 11.5 points. The difference of over 2 points can be explained by the fact that our 1st match included two no show partners. However, I can not figure out the 10 point difference in your post today

Sumadin's included eliminations. It is possible that your alliance partners during eliminations were both scoring below their qualifying performance (which would make sense, given the increased quality of the opposition), and the algorithm 'attributed' that to you. This is why I didn't include eliminations in the ones I ran, they're a whole different beast. It probably isn't a bug in his code, because we both independently developed our own code and our results match, so unless the math foundations we're basing this on are shaky, it's probably an effect of using the finals data.

In other news:

Just to emphasize the quality of OPR as a predictor of who will be playing on Saturday afternoon. Keep in mind, this was a 66 team regional, and predicting 24 robots out of the field is no small feat.

This intrigued me, so I did it for a few more:
GLR: 20/24
Florida: 19/24
VCU: 17/24

So it is a somewhat accurate predictor, but it doesn't take into account that a team's 3rd pick is likely to be a lower-scoring lap bot because of the game only having 2 trackballs. Picking strictly by OPR is a fast way to get eliminated, because you'd probably end up with 3 delicate, relatively slow hurdlers fighting over 2 trackballs, rather than a more-ideal combination of 1 robust lapper/defender and 2 hurdlers.

[MasterChief 573]

Originally Posted by Bongle

Sumadin's included eliminations. It is possible that your alliance partners during eliminations were both scoring below their qualifying performance (which would make sense, given the increased quality of the opposition), and the algorithm 'attributed' that to you. This is why I didn't include eliminations in the ones I ran, they're a whole different beast. It probably isn't a bug in his code, because we both independently developed our own code and our results match, so unless the math foundations we're basing this on are shaky, it's probably an effect of using the finals data.

In other news:

This intrigued me, so I did it for a few more:
GLR: 20/24
Florida: 19/24
VCU: 17/24

So it is a somewhat accurate predictor, but it doesn't take into account that a team's 3rd pick is likely to be a lower-scoring lap bot because of the game only having 2 trackballs. Picking strictly by OPR is a fast way to get eliminated, because you'd probably end up with 3 delicate, relatively slow hurdlers fighting over 2 trackballs, rather than a more-ideal combination of 1 robust lapper/defender and 2 hurdlers.

Can I see the OPR from GLR?

[Bongle]

Originally Posted by MasterChief 573

Can I see the OPR from GLR?

(based on qualifying matches only)

217	50.7032
494	42.5188
27	41.5673
67	40.5394
1718	40.2957
33	38.5823
47	36.6663
469	34.469
326	31.1764
201	29.9324
65	29.6645
862	28.1615
291	24.9495
245	24.7518
70	24.0254
910	23.0301
68	23.0027
107	21.8664
573	20.1932
548	20.0728
66	20.0018
1023	18.233
1998	18.132
1732	17.8759
1747	17.6147
2137	16.5689
503	16.2864
894	16.1329
2676	15.6698
451	15.5634
2612	15.3752
2627	14.1293
2163	13.1382
2050	12.7314
1596	11.5487
1646	11.4519
2591	10.9547
470	9.91908
1015	9.73652
306	9.57384
1701	9.53248
2608	8.05458
830	7.30086
279	7.24847
308	7.11791
226	7.03603
1189	6.30477
1216	5.67063
63	4.94421
123	4.81491
280	4.45936
322	3.07761
1941	2.84981
240	2.57329
2620	2.49713
2224	2.32567
1322	2.18991
2673	0.819399
406	0.778652
2576	-0.147101
461	-0.978711
1549	-2.05435
313	-7.22184

[cziggy343]

do you have one for each regional? b/c if you do, i would like to see palmetto... b/c i never got to see any statistics

[Bongle]

Originally Posted by cziggy343

do you have one for each regional? b/c if you do, i would like to see palmetto... b/c i never got to see any statistics

I have to generate them manually per-regional, so for now I'm going to keep it on a request basis. Enjoy!

Palmetto

845	34.6689
1251	34.1576
343	29.7443
1249	29.2152
342	26.3919
1261	25.5961
1466	22.6852
386	22.5882
1539	21.2896
1746	18.6837
2237	16.7312
2483	16.524
1026	16.3271
1319	16.0827
2187	13.6184
665	12.8638
2430	12.8461
1225	12.8339
2092	12.4018
281	12.147
1758	11.297
1398	8.26199
1102	8.01401
1553	7.85424
1051	7.1118
1876	6.23695
393	5.72104
804	4.95519
1959	4.86179
2362	3.91176
900	2.86289
1293	2.82464
1270	2.02667
1369	0.548534
2425	0.18277
1436	-4.56816

[GBilletdeaux930]

So all i gotta do is say

"Can i see the opr's for the wisconsin regional?"

and they will magically appear a few posts down from this one?

[cziggy343]

Originally Posted by GBilletdeaux930

So all i gotta do is say

"Can i see the opr's for the wisconsin regional?"

and they will magically appear a few posts down from this one?

thats how mine worked

[XaulZan11]

Originally Posted by GBilletdeaux930

So all i gotta do is say

"Can i see the opr's for the wisconsin regional?"

and they will magically appear a few posts down from this one?

Ha, I was just gonna ask for the same. I'm interested to see how this compares to the statistics of points scored per match that we scouted.

[GBilletdeaux930]

well we'll see if this magic works...


ABRAWisconsinRegionalKADABRA!!!

[Bongle]

Originally Posted by GBilletdeaux930

well we'll see if this magic works...


ABRAWisconsinRegionalKADABRA!!!

Lol, subtle

Wisconsin Regional

1625	49.8168
141	35.6332
1730	32.0028
1736	25.5406
2169	24.3109
2062	24.019
930	21.573
171	20.006
2547	19.1146
1675	18.0718
2481	17.3041
93	17.1033
166	15.6925
2549	15.4527
2606	15.3803
2535	14.9615
2545	14.8528
2526	14.6634
1091	14.3247
2437	13.5781
1816	13.1077
2574	12.4494
1739	11.8769
2530	11.2592
2116	10.8958
2077	10.7748
1652	10.6515
1103	10.364
2202	9.8298
2194	9.37814
1850	9.05741
2039	8.87432
857	8.77189
1988	8.39986
2153	8.3983
2143	7.923
2667	7.88136
1259	7.56955
537	7.14274
1716	6.86105
167	5.99421
904	5.74562
2136	5.62584
2129	5.27883
269	4.51404
74	3.56688
1306	3.53685
2220	3.22949
1714	2.86169
1732	2.31474
2506	2.25164
2538	1.84231
1864	0.955353
754	-0.576295
706	-1.18242
81	-2.20895
1984	-2.30947
1268	-2.98356
2586	-7.35126
2561	-9.22469

[IKE]

Again, not a programmer, but I have an interesting idea for writing a DPR (Defensive Power Rating) algorithm. Take your OPR values, apply them to the matches. The delta between the expected score and the actual score would be the raw value for a DPR score. Use your OPR techniques to then factor out the DPR each team might provide.

One thought on why your average score is much higher than your OPR is that a decent hurdler may actually slow down the scoring of an exceptional hurdler. Take for instance an 1114. I know they have done 7 hurdles and may even have done 8 in a match. The match where they did 8, probably would not occur with 2 other decent hurdlers as they may hurdle also and thus accidentally slow down an 1114.

Thanks for posting your results.

[GBilletdeaux930]

oh thank you it seems like there really is magic in this world

*looks up with his fingers interlaced in a weird disney like pose*

[Adam Freeman]

Bongle, not that you need additional validation but your numbers match up exactly with the numbers that our guys have calculated.

This information in the hands of teams that know how to use it will be very dangerous ...

I know that I plan to have up to date information in Atlanta for our division.

Although there is no replacement for watching matches and see teams improve through out the weekend. I will have to keep my 'black magic' going and pull more 503s out of my hat, or they just might replace me with a OPR scoring database.