Offensive Power Rankings for 2008

[XaulZan11]

To build on what others have said about the shortcommings of the OPR, watching the actual matches is a ton better than just looking at the OPR. The OPR attempts to predict how well a team scores per match, and is just decent at it. Relying on only the OPR is like a weatherman predicting the weather simply looking at on the month's average weather, instead of actually looking at the weather patterns, air pressure and all the other stuff weather people look at when making the forcast. By looking at the averages I'll know tommorrow it will be fairly warm, but won't tell me if I should bring a jacket, umbrella or sunglasses. OPR is nice because it gives a rough or general idea about a team very quickly and easily, but to get a good idea about a team, you need to actually watch thier matches.

I would use it only in prescouting where there is no matchs online of the team. In this situation it is better than no information at all.

EDIT: One of the shortcommings is that the OPR attempts to predict something that can be found--the team's contribution to thier alliance--by watching the team's matches. It is nice that is very easy to find, but its not like it is predicting something that we cannot find.

[Madison]

Originally Posted by XaulZan11

To build on what others have said about the shortcommings of the OPR, watching the actual matches is a ton better than just looking at the OPR. The OPR attempts to predict how well a team scores per match, and is just decent at it. Relying on only the OPR is like a weatherman predicting the weather simply looking at on the month's average weather, instead of actually looking at the weather patterns, air pressure and all the other stuff weather people look at when making the forcast. By looking at the averages I'll know tommorrow it will be fairly warm, but won't tell me if I should bring a jacket, umbrella or sunglasses. OPR is nice because it gives a rough or general idea about a team very quickly and easily, but to get a good idea about a team, you need to actually watch thier matches.

I would use it only in prescouting where there is no matchs online of the team. In this situation it is better than no information at all.

EDIT: One of the shortcommings is that the OPR attempts to predict something that can be found--the team's contribution to thier alliance--by watching the team's matches. It is nice that is very easy to find, but its not like it is predicting something that we cannot find.

Teams may interpret "scoring" differently in their scouting systems. If Team A cannot hurdle, but can place the ball on the overpass and Team B cannot place the ball, but can knock it down, together they can hurdle. Individually, their contributions, however, would not indicate that possibility and would reflect only points scored by receiving a bonus at the end of the match or by knocking balls down in hybrid mode.

[fuzzy1718]

A little off topic, but how did our team drop points, when we havn't played a regional? From 37.472 to 32.54432471??? Our last regional was GLR ??????

[Alan Anderson]

Originally Posted by fuzzy1718

A little off topic, but how did our team drop points, when we havn't played a regional?

Do you understand the math behind the rankings? Your apparent drop can be explained easily if some of the teams you played with scored more points in later regionals. The algorithm doesn't account for different strengths at different times for the same team. It would tend to overcount an improving team's contribution to earlier matches, and thus undercount its partners' contribution.

[MasterChief 573]

Originally Posted by fuzzy1718

A little off topic, but how did our team drop points, when we havn't played a regional? From 37.472 to 32.54432471??? Our last regional was GLR ??????

Same thing happened to us too, that happens if you performed better at a previous regional as opposed to your last one.

[Bongle]

Someone (don't know if he wants to be revealed) via PM requested the algorithm I've been using, which meant I had to clean my code, which means I'm not as embarrassed to post it.

So here it is:

// opr.cpp : Defines the entry point for the console application.
//

#include "stdafx.h" // if you're not using visual studio, you'll probably have to toast this line

#include <fstream>
#include <iostream>
#include <vector>
#include <set>
#include <map>
#include "jama/jama_lu.h"

using namespace std;

struct Match
{
	Match()
	{
		memset(this,0,sizeof(Match));
	}
	int blue[3];
	int red[3];
	int blueScore;
	int redScore;
};

// reads all the match data from files copy/pasted from usfirst.org into a list of Match structures
// note that week 1, 2008 files can't be read unmodified by this function
// what I've been doing is pre-processing them doing a find-replace on AM and PM and adding " X " so that they have the right number of tab-seperated values
void ReadTeamData(string strFile,vector<Match>& lstMatches,set<int>& setTeams)
{
	ifstream inFile;
	inFile.open(strFile.c_str());
	
	if(inFile.fail())
	{
		cout<<"Error opening file"<<endl;
		return;
	}

	//int iTheoryMatchNum = 0;
	while(!inFile.eof())
	{
		char buf[512];
		Match aNewMatch;

		inFile>>buf; // "9:20"
		inFile>>buf; // "AM/PM"
		inFile>>buf; // match number

		
		inFile>>buf; // red 1		
		aNewMatch.red[0] = atoi(buf);
		inFile>>buf; // red 2
		aNewMatch.red[1] = atoi(buf);
		inFile>>buf; // red 3
		aNewMatch.red[2] = atoi(buf);

		inFile>>buf; // blue 1
		aNewMatch.blue[0] = atoi(buf);
		inFile>>buf; // blue 2
		aNewMatch.blue[1] = atoi(buf);
		inFile>>buf; // blue 3
		aNewMatch.blue[2] = atoi(buf);

		

		inFile>>buf;
		aNewMatch.redScore = atoi(buf);
		inFile>>buf;
		aNewMatch.blueScore = atoi(buf);

		if(aNewMatch.redScore < 0 || aNewMatch.redScore > 168 || aNewMatch.blueScore < 0 || aNewMatch.blueScore > 168)
		{
			cout<<"Warning.  Score of "<<aNewMatch.redScore<<" or of "<<aNewMatch.blueScore<<" is unexpectedly large or small.  The input file may be badly formatted"<<endl;
		}
		if(!setTeams.count(aNewMatch.red[0])) setTeams.insert(aNewMatch.red[0]);
		if(!setTeams.count(aNewMatch.red[1])) setTeams.insert(aNewMatch.red[1]);
		if(!setTeams.count(aNewMatch.red[2])) setTeams.insert(aNewMatch.red[2]);
		if(!setTeams.count(aNewMatch.blue[0])) setTeams.insert(aNewMatch.blue[0]);
		if(!setTeams.count(aNewMatch.blue[1])) setTeams.insert(aNewMatch.blue[1]);
		if(!setTeams.count(aNewMatch.blue[2])) setTeams.insert(aNewMatch.blue[2]);
		
		lstMatches.push_back(aNewMatch);
		
	}
}
// generates a mapping from team #s to row#s and the reverse
void GenerateTeamToRow(const set<int> setTeams,map<int,int>& mapTeamToRow,map<int,int>& mapRowToTeam)
{
	int iCounter = 0;
	for(set<int>::const_iterator i = setTeams.begin();i != setTeams.end();i++)
	{
		mapTeamToRow[*i] = iCounter;
		mapRowToTeam[iCounter] = *i;
		iCounter++;
	}
}
// increments the symmetric points in a matrix to indicate that a pair of teams played with each other
void IncMatrix(TNT::Array2D<double>& M,map<int,int> mapTeamToRow,int iTeam1,int iTeam2)
{
	int iRow1 = mapTeamToRow[iTeam1];
	int iRow2 = mapTeamToRow[iTeam2];

	M[iRow1][iRow2]++;
	if(iRow1 != iRow2)
	{
		M[iRow2][iRow1]++;
	}

}
// increments each team's score for all members of an alliance
void IncScore(TNT::Array1D<double>& S,map<int,int> mapTeamToRow,int aTeams[3],int iScore)
{
	for(int x = 0;x < 3;x++)
	{		
		int iRow = mapTeamToRow[aTeams[x]];
		S[iRow] += iScore;
	}
}
// generates our M and S data.  M is an NxN matrix where each cell(i,j) represents how many times team i played with team j
void GenerateBasicMatrix(const vector<Match>& lstMatches,const map<int,int> mapTeamToRow,TNT::Array2D<double>& M,TNT::Array1D<double>& S)
{
	// assertion: M should be fully zeroed at this point
	for(int x = 0;x < lstMatches.size();x++)
	{
		Match m = lstMatches[x];
		
		IncMatrix(M,mapTeamToRow,m.red[0],m.red[0]);
		IncMatrix(M,mapTeamToRow,m.red[1],m.red[1]);
		IncMatrix(M,mapTeamToRow,m.red[2],m.red[2]);

		IncMatrix(M,mapTeamToRow,m.red[0],m.red[1]);
		IncMatrix(M,mapTeamToRow,m.red[0],m.red[2]);
		IncMatrix(M,mapTeamToRow,m.red[1],m.red[2]);


		IncMatrix(M,mapTeamToRow,m.blue[0],m.blue[0]);
		IncMatrix(M,mapTeamToRow,m.blue[1],m.blue[1]); // teams play with themselves too!
		IncMatrix(M,mapTeamToRow,m.blue[2],m.blue[2]);

		IncMatrix(M,mapTeamToRow,m.blue[0],m.blue[1]);
		IncMatrix(M,mapTeamToRow,m.blue[0],m.blue[2]);
		IncMatrix(M,mapTeamToRow,m.blue[1],m.blue[2]);

		IncScore(S,mapTeamToRow,m.red,m.redScore);
		IncScore(S,mapTeamToRow,m.blue,m.blueScore);
	}
	
}
// zeroes out M
void InitMatrix(TNT::Array2D<double>& M)
{
	for(int x = 0;x < M.dim1();x++)
	{
		for(int y = 0;y < M.dim2();y++)
		{
			M[x][y] = 0;
		}
	}
}
// zeroes out S
void InitS(TNT::Array1D<double>& S)
{
	for(int x = 0;x < S.dim1();x++)
	{
		S[x] = 0;
	}
}
// loads all the teams going to championships
void LoadCMPTeams(string strFile,set<int>& lstTeams)
{
	ifstream inF;
	inF.open(strFile.c_str());

	if(inF.fail())
	{
		cerr<<"Failure at opening "<<strFile<<endl;
	}
	while(!inF.eof())
	{
		int iTeam;
		inF>>iTeam;		
		lstTeams.insert(iTeam);
	}
	
}
// reads in the list of regional files that we need to process
void ReadFileList(string strInput,vector <string>& lstFiles)
{
	ifstream inF;
	inF.open(strInput.c_str());
	while(!inF.eof())
	{
		string str;
		inF>>str;
		lstFiles.push_back(str);
	}
}
// writes the power ratings to <strFile>.out
void WritePowerRatings(string strFile,map<int,int> mapRowToTeam,Array1D<double> PowerRatings)
{
	ofstream outF;
	string strOutFile = strFile + ".out";
	outF.open(strOutFile.c_str());

	for(int x = 0;x < PowerRatings.dim();x++)
	{
		int iTeam = mapRowToTeam[x];
		outF<<iTeam<<"\t"<<PowerRatings[x]<<endl;
	}
	outF.close();
}
int main(int argc, char* argv[])
{
	if(argc != 2)
	{
		cout<<"Wrong number of arguments for scripted running, defaulting to using reglist.txt"<<endl;
		argv[1] = "reglist.txt";
	}
	
	vector <string> lstFiles; // all the regional text files to process
	map<int,double> mapTeamToTopScore;
	map<int,double> mapTeamToLastScore;
	map<int,string> mapTeamToBestReg;
	map<int,string> mapTeamToLastReg;
	map<int,bool> mapTeamToBestSet;
	map<int,int> mapTeamToRegCount;
	
	set<int> setAllTeams; // all teams
	set <int> lstChamps; // teams going to champs 
	ReadFileList(argv[1],lstFiles);

	LoadCMPTeams("c:\\cmpTeams.txt",lstChamps); // list of teams going to championships.  If this vector has more than zero entries, then we only print out data for teams going to champs

	for(int x = 0;x < lstFiles.size();x++)
	{		
		set<int> setTeams;		
		map<int,int> mapTeamToRow;
		map<int,int> mapRowToTeam;
		
		vector<Match > lstMatches;
		
		string strFile;		
		strFile = lstFiles[x];
		
		ReadTeamData(strFile,lstMatches,setTeams);					// reads match data
		
		GenerateTeamToRow(setTeams,mapTeamToRow,mapRowToTeam);		// maps each team to a number between 0 and N-1
				
		TNT::Array2D<double> M(setTeams.size(),setTeams.size());	// M
		TNT::Array1D<double> S(setTeams.size());					// S

		InitMatrix(M);
		InitS(S);

		GenerateBasicMatrix(lstMatches,mapTeamToRow,M,S); // makes M from the match list data		

		JAMA::LU<double> aMatrixSolver(M);
		Array1D<double> PowerRatings = aMatrixSolver.solve(S); // solves MO = S.  PowerRatings = solved O

	    
		WritePowerRatings(strFile,mapRowToTeam,PowerRatings); // writes the output for this regional to <strFile>.out

		// records a team's last and best power ratings
		for(int x = 0;x < PowerRatings.dim();x++)
		{
			if(lstChamps.size() == 0 || lstChamps.count(mapRowToTeam[x]))
			{
				
				double dPwr = PowerRatings[x];
				int iTeam = mapRowToTeam[x];
				if(setAllTeams.count(iTeam) == 0) // if this team hasn't made it into our list of all teams, add it
				{					
					setAllTeams.insert(iTeam);
				}
				mapTeamToRegCount[iTeam]++;
				if(dPwr > mapTeamToTopScore[iTeam] || mapTeamToBestSet[iTeam] == false)
				{
					mapTeamToTopScore[iTeam] = dPwr;
					mapTeamToBestReg[iTeam] = strFile;
					mapTeamToBestSet[iTeam]  =true;
				}
				mapTeamToLastScore[iTeam] = dPwr;
				mapTeamToLastReg[iTeam] = strFile;
			}
		}
	} // end of file loop
	
	// this prints out a team's last OPR and where it occurred.  If a team's best OPR occurred elsewhere, it prints that out
	cout<<"Team\tRegional Count\tLast OPR\tLast Regional\tBest OPR\tBest Regional"<<endl;
	for(set<int>::iterator i = setAllTeams.begin();i != setAllTeams.end();i++)
	{
		int iTeam = *i;

		cout<<iTeam<<"\t"<<mapTeamToRegCount[iTeam]<<"\t"<<mapTeamToLastScore[iTeam]<<"\t"<<mapTeamToLastReg[iTeam];
		
		cout<<"\t"<<mapTeamToTopScore[iTeam]<<"\t"<<mapTeamToBestReg[iTeam];			
		
		cout<<endl;
	}

	return 0;
}

Required files:
-Reglist.txt - a list of regional data to be processed. One file per line. Note that it will output a file for each file in this list, and that will be the OPR for that regional
-cmpteams.txt - A list of teams that you're interested in (for example, a list of teams going to championships). One team per line.
-the JAMA math library (see attached file). This is from the NIST, it should be ok to redistribute. You can get the actual file here: http://math.nist.gov/tnt/download.html

------------
Licensing: None, do whatever you want with it. Feel free to give me credit or something though (but you don't have to, if it'd cramp your style).

[Greg Marra]

http://www.thebluealliance.net/cdvid...08_matches.csv

Match dump including New York City regional. Includes column with event name and event week. Provides column with competition level (to filter out elims, if you want) and match number (probably not useful). Filters out matches with incomplete information.

[Guy Davidson]

With Greg's new dump, I'm proud to present: my complete OPR rankings. These include every match in the TBA system, including eliminations, broken down as follows: one sheet overall, one sheet for each week, two combined sheets (combining the weekly and overall rankings): one normal, and one with repeats in the top 50 or so color labeled.

Note: the following includes teams' overall performances as well as their weekly ones. If you wish to disregard the overall ones, subtract one from all numbers

1114 have the top 3 and 4 out of the top 10 performances overall. 233 have 2 out of the top 10, as do 2056. 330, 987, and 2056 also all have 3 in the top 20, with 39 having 2. Other notable repeats include 217 (3 performances in the 21-42 range), 67 (same), 525 (same), 1124 (2 in 21-41), 40 (same), 1625 (2 in top 50), 103 (same, including the 13th best).

Here are the top 50 performances, be them weekly or overall:

1114	78.07555206	5
1114	71.72841092	4
1114	66.08610526	All
233	54.83482914	5
2056	54.18143261	All
40	52.36761871	5
39	52.02981858	5
233	51.19444477	All
2056	50.85653031	5
1114	49.80987076	1
330	49.67085518	4
987	49.49921146	2
103	49.17875705	5
330	48.61508348	All
987	48.54535978	5
987	48.4036174	All
2056	48.14940049	4
39	48.05951704	All
330	47.6733788	2
525	47.50920616	5
217	47.21258553	3
79	46.85564663	3
1731	46.67751354	4
217	46.39477357	5
525	45.53997317	All
254	45.22118025	5
2171	44.91825888	4
1024	44.74816411	4
67	44.18768501	All
175	43.88978378	3
1124	43.87787986	3
27	43.73318232	5
1625	42.9666571	5
1731	42.93375969	All
67	42.26870256	5
217	42.11651285	All
1124	41.9143175	All
1717	41.6884957	4
67	41.29809056	2
25	41.18181687	5
40	40.80843761	All
525	40.68607417	1
1625	40.49393267	3
494	40.49077186	5
103	40.01593827	All
93	39.93271964	5
968	39.86958078	2
233	39.20154265	3
175	39.16106424	All
469	39.06852953	3

Attached in a zip file is my complete excel spreadsheet.

Enjoy

[rsilverstein]

Great data... you can definitely see an improvement among teams over the weeks.

[Travis Hoffman]

Here's a theoretical and completely meaningless divisional breakdown for Championships based solely on Bongle's final OPR's and the current 339-team list (sort all teams by OPR, then go (A, C, G, N), (A, C, G, N), etc.

Even if FIRST went with this off the wall sorting system, the addition of the final few teams would skew the arrangement.

 
330   Newton
67   Newton
103   Newton
469   Newton
1024   Newton
368   Newton
1625   Newton
93   Newton
16   Newton
1629   Newton
71   Newton
1156   Newton
45   Newton
703   Newton
1592   Newton
237   Newton
501   Newton
816   Newton
100   Newton
176   Newton
222   Newton
384   Newton
1350   Newton
364   Newton
2165   Newton
316   Newton
1   Newton
1528   Newton
1598   Newton
488   Newton
1756   Newton
2455   Newton
461   Newton
1983   Newton
116   Newton
57   Newton
503   Newton
177   Newton
107   Newton
418   Newton
312   Newton
401   Newton
2483   Newton
801   Newton
2520   Newton
1939   Newton
476   Newton
1023   Newton
499   Newton
1646   Newton
2340   Newton
120   Newton
1143   Newton
1296   Newton
701   Newton
2352   Newton
1594   Newton
302   Newton
2454   Newton
2557   Newton
2591   Newton
207   Newton
1212   Newton
1732   Newton
2237   Newton
2023   Newton
2038   Newton
2556   Newton
2410   Newton
2424   Newton
2575   Newton
1071   Newton
2354   Newton
433   Newton
228   Newton
900   Newton
599   Newton
1599   Newton
1266   Newton
752   Newton
296   Newton
677   Newton
1595   Newton
1795   Newton
233   Galileo
525   Galileo
40   Galileo
20   Galileo
1717   Galileo
968   Galileo
365   Galileo
47   Galileo
1806   Galileo
195   Galileo
27   Galileo
1065   Galileo
1574   Galileo
111   Galileo
357   Galileo
70   Galileo
2337   Galileo
179   Galileo
234   Galileo
2046   Galileo
692   Galileo
358   Galileo
1989   Galileo
2024   Galileo
2604   Galileo
292   Galileo
435   Galileo
2468   Galileo
201   Galileo
932   Galileo
1261   Galileo
1429   Galileo
1388   Galileo
236   Galileo
231   Galileo
1474   Galileo
2624   Galileo
612   Galileo
192   Galileo
2122   Galileo
180   Galileo
2638   Galileo
1902   Galileo
1503   Galileo
1094   Galileo
2518   Galileo
2335   Galileo
2668   Galileo
2344   Galileo
329   Galileo
2377   Galileo
1138   Galileo
2474   Galileo
597   Galileo
1165   Galileo
1014   Galileo
115   Galileo
1013   Galileo
1566   Galileo
1533   Galileo
1366   Galileo
548   Galileo
1323   Galileo
547   Galileo
527   Galileo
462   Galileo
122   Galileo
1868   Galileo
340   Galileo
2053   Galileo
75   Galileo
1254   Galileo
269   Galileo
457   Galileo
1033   Galileo
1398   Galileo
2543   Galileo
1739   Galileo
1577   Galileo
1522   Galileo
922   Galileo
86   Galileo
2621   Galileo
422   Galileo
509   Galileo
2056   Curie
39   Curie
1124   Curie
191   Curie
141   Curie
1126   Curie
2171   Curie
254   Curie
1477   Curie
343   Curie
41   Curie
148   Curie
121   Curie
1662   Curie
768   Curie
1540   Curie
2016   Curie
2062   Curie
341   Curie
2549   Curie
2590   Curie
555   Curie
88   Curie
386   Curie
716   Curie
375   Curie
573   Curie
288   Curie
1319   Curie
1802   Curie
2472   Curie
66   Curie
949   Curie
48   Curie
68   Curie
84   Curie
155   Curie
108   Curie
2081   Curie
65   Curie
271   Curie
1504   Curie
2609   Curie
2550   Curie
812   Curie
686   Curie
1357   Curie
425   Curie
294   Curie
1318   Curie
1699   Curie
2342   Curie
1860   Curie
1245   Curie
1305   Curie
2415   Curie
1108   Curie
1386   Curie
135   Curie
128   Curie
2564   Curie
1747   Curie
8   Curie
2614   Curie
2599   Curie
1538   Curie
587   Curie
1758   Curie
1311   Curie
1834   Curie
159   Curie
1102   Curie
2115   Curie
1941   Curie
1547   Curie
2338   Curie
226   Curie
858   Curie
4   Curie
1523   Curie
303   Curie
2429   Curie
5   Curie
203   Curie
468   Curie
1114   Archimedes
987   Archimedes
217   Archimedes
175   Archimedes
79   Archimedes
1086   Archimedes
494   Archimedes
25   Archimedes
1251   Archimedes
33   Archimedes
1418   Archimedes
171   Archimedes
126   Archimedes
1218   Archimedes
326   Archimedes
118   Archimedes
337   Archimedes
395   Archimedes
1511   Archimedes
2487   Archimedes
359   Archimedes
291   Archimedes
397   Archimedes
694   Archimedes
1736   Archimedes
1649   Archimedes
1279   Archimedes
1746   Archimedes
1987   Archimedes
1690   Archimedes
894   Archimedes
1089   Archimedes
138   Archimedes
223   Archimedes
2214   Archimedes
842   Archimedes
1816   Archimedes
1025   Archimedes
60   Archimedes
11   Archimedes
830   Archimedes
1450   Archimedes
134   Archimedes
2449   Archimedes
102   Archimedes
85   Archimedes
980   Archimedes
2630   Archimedes
832   Archimedes
486   Archimedes
2166   Archimedes
2048   Archimedes
2437   Archimedes
440   Archimedes
1714   Archimedes
173   Archimedes
1038   Archimedes
1676   Archimedes
190   Archimedes
903   Archimedes
1727   Archimedes
1379   Archimedes
614   Archimedes
1885   Archimedes
399   Archimedes
49   Archimedes
322   Archimedes
2423   Archimedes
610   Archimedes
2430   Archimedes
178   Archimedes
224   Archimedes
1502   Archimedes
839   Archimedes
1127   Archimedes
967   Archimedes
87   Archimedes
2629   Archimedes
151   Archimedes
714   Archimedes
241   Archimedes
604   Archimedes
2041   Archimedes
868   Archimedes
1576   Archimedes